2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 8 – Titans 27, Bucs 23
I mean, this is getting unbelievable now…
Jameis Winston has 7 INTs and 5 fumbles the last two games total… That’s not the unbelievable part. I am not shocked by that at all. You know me…I’m sitting back smiling, knowingly. What amazes me is – THEY STILL are making excuses for him in the media/analysis world. Mitchell Trubisky is a joke for them and all week there were all kinds of trade theories on what QBs the Bears should get right now to save the season. Why didn’t anyone posture any QBs the Bucs could trade for to replace Winston?
You didn’t hear any. You know why? I keep saying why…to keep this in front of us – THEY throw in with certain QBs early on for reasons they have no clue about, for ‘emotional’ reasons (because 99% that the rest of the herd is with the idea and they saw that one highlight) and then they just fit stories around it to support the thing they have no clue about. In Winston’s case…they just go silent. They make jokes like ‘Oh, that’s bad-Winston this week!’ People should be outraged. They aren’t because the ‘protectors’ don’t stoke their flames on it. Why people mock Trubisky and laugh off Winston – it’s a criminal action by the NFL establishment. They are assassinating players they don’t like and propping up the ones they’ve thrown in with. They do it in politics as well, both sides – it’s criminal. I’m not making a political statement…it’s just a gaggle of media people have the same mindsets and then report/shape (or hide) news to fit their mindset – politically and in football. None of us is getting real analysis on things from anywhere in the mainstream. We think we are because ‘why would they lie?’ – they lie, unintentionally (in a way), because they don’t do the work, they don’t know of what they speak, they follow the wind blowing and they see what they want to see…and report it to us, and we’re the worse suckers for buying into it.
They played or coached football, but that doesn’t mean anything for real analysis. I’ve eaten food before – I’m not a food critic or a master chef.
Talk about getting conned by the football hive mind -- hell, the Buccaneers aren’t even claiming young QBs off other team’s practice squads to see if they get a lucky replacement. Which proves the point – the NFL team management (coaches and GMs) know less than fantasy players about talent assessments (or business) and they take most of their cues from the media and fan reaction fears, which is warped, and they never change/get any better…as Belichick just runs rings around them over and over.
Anyone want to fire Bruce Arians yet? QB whisperer, guy who would ‘fix’ Winston? Nope. Sweep it all under the rug and hope you won’t notice. Let’s all go laugh at Mitch Trubisky, and make sure Marcus Mariota (#2 pick behind Winston) gets benched for his high crimes, and let’s go laugh at Gardner Minshew’s mustache (so you won’t notice how stupid they were once again in scouting) – all to distract you from focusing on Winston (or Haskins, or Kizer, or…I could have a never ending list). It’s sickening.
All that…and Tampa Bay STILL should’ve won this game. All these turnovers, and two of them setting up Tennessee in the red zone for easy TDs right away…and the Titans STILL should have lost this game, they almost did. How bad is Tennessee that with a thousand gifts they have to come from behind, at home, and hold off Tampa Bay in the end?
Tennessee is now 4-4…winners of two games in a row with Tannehill starting…and really two games they were outplayed by bad teams and should have lost. My computer models are all over this Week 9 – Tennessee is a fraud and an embarrassed-from-Week-8 Carolina is going to clean their clocks this week and bring them back to reality. The Titans will win 6 games at best this season and should be about to embark on a long losing streak unless the four-leaf clover up their arse continues on.
Tampa Bay is 2-5. They really should be 4-3, but they made their Jameis Winston bed of dung and they deserve to lie in it and all the season ticket holders should smell it because they’ve enabled it. The Bucs are so poorly run it’s ridiculous…they haven’t even tried to address this QB situation for years now. I’m sure they will sign Winston again in 2020 – just give fraud Arians more chances. I have no doubt Arians thinks he can fix this and wants to with Jameis. He’ll show you…he’ll show all of us! TB will finish with 4 wins tops.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I found it surprising that Jonnu Smith (6-78-1/7) was the very first player spoken of by Matthew Berry on the fantasy show Sunday morning. My upside sleeper TE of the week on Tuesday…a Berry love soon after. That’s not the kind of player I see THEM talk about like that. It’s got my antenna raised. Let’s see what happens this week with ‘their’ favorite sleepers.
That love of Jonnu was highly unusual last week, but not really bought into by a lot of people. Most people…
(a) don’t know much about Jonnu Smith, or
(b) are going to trust a Titans passing game option, especially a backup TE.
However, that chatter + this game result + I’m sure ESPN is celebrating it all week on their fantasy shows (of which I watch not one second of any week…I just listen to Sunday morning a bit to see what THEY are into to know how to play against THEM) = Jonnu got picked up more and more this week off waivers.
There are two sides to the Jonnu fantasy coin…
1) He looks fantastic. He’s a guy we really pushed/liked as a sleeper last year when he started percolating and then he got hurt and was gone. To start this season, he was a mostly ignored TE behind Delanie.
Delanie got hurt and was out the last two weeks, Jonnu got more looks…and has been wonderful. Some TEs are just OK talents propelled for FF in good (temporary) spots…Fells, Herndon, Brate…maybe Everett, Ebron in that category in some way. But Jonnu has real talent. He looks explosive…he looks, to me, like CLEARLY the best receiver the Titans have. Better than Davis-Brown at WR. Jonnu has an upside on talent…and he showed that this game with Delanie fully out of his way.
Jonnu has top 10 TE abilities for fantasy with the workload.
2) The problem with Jonnu for FF is… It’s Tennessee. It’s a terrible offense. It’s an offense that will do two things ahead:
(a) Jam Delanie right back into the starting lineup and de-feature Jonnu…they did it last year to their detriment, they did it to start 2019…they will do it again guaranteed.
(b) They won’t fully go all-in on Jonnu. In this game, in key spots, with Jonnu making the big plays all game…I’d see 3rd-down and red zone spots where Jonnu isn’t even on the field. Really? HE’S YOUR BEST RECEIVING WEAPON!!! YOU ARE SEEING IT LIVE IN-GAME!!! How can he not be out there in every key passing spot?
That’s Tennessee for you.
I caution betting big on Jonnu…I want him to work/start and thrive, and I want to be in on it – but it’s likely only as good as Delanie Walker not being active. Top 5-10 TE with Delanie out, and TE2-3 with Delanie back…it’s just the way it is. It’s what Tennessee and most teams do. Old-school NFL coaches LOVE old tight ends…Olsen, Witten, Gates, etc., to the detriment of their offense. It will happen here.
If Delanie goes on I.R. – run don’t walk for Jonnu if you’re in need.
In dynasty, the future looks a lot better for Jonnu because Delanie might be in his last year.
-- Cameron Brate (3-32-0/6) is similar, but different to Jonnu’s plight.
Brate only works when O.J. Howard is out, but Brate has half the talent Jonnu does.
Also, Brate is stuck in this Arians anti-TE offense…so the whole ‘Brate is great with no OJH’ narrative is kinda old news/dead.
I think Howard and Brate might miss this week. In that case, preseason star Tanner Hudson might be a thing for a week – but then he’s stuck with the anti-TE ways of Arians as well.
-- Derrick Henry (16-75-0) had a ‘meh’ fantasy game, but as everyone has noted…the TB run defense is really good. Henry had as good a game as any RB has against them. No worries…just Titans’ offensive worries in general. Carolina this week, and they are terrible vs. the run.
-- Ryan Tannehill (21-33 for 193 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) got very lucky here. Two early red zone turnovers set up two short TD passes. Tannehill had back to back INTs midgame, both reversed on penalty. Tannehill is constantly flirting with disaster – he might get-got vs. Carolina Week 9.
-- Jason Pierre-Paul (3 tackles, 2 sacks, 3 TFLs) made his debut and rolled up some sweet numbers.
Carl Nassib (4 tackles, 1 sack, 1 TFL) is starting to come on as well. 2.0 sacks and 5 TFLs his last two games total.
JPP + Nassib + Shaq Barrett make for a formidable frontline pass rush. Not good news for Kyler Week 10, but the good news is that the Bucs’ secondary is still pretty weak in coverage. The last two games, the Bucs have held opponents under 225 yards passing both games…but have been crushed overall due to the turnovers setting up short fields.
-- The Titans defense, if they were ‘something’ should’ve taken advantage of LAC and TB, at Tennessee the last two weeks…but instead they gave up 20+ in both games. They got turnovers from Winston, but that was him just throwing blindly to nowhere…nothing Tennessee did to force them really. I don’t like the Titans’ D the rest of way.
Snap Counts of Interest:
43 = Jonnu (I’m hoping this snap count tally, comparative, is a sign that the Jonnu turn is really happening)
37 = Corey Davis
26 = A.J. Brown
33 = MyCole Pruitt
33 = Firkser
27 = Humphries
22 = Sharpe