2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 9 – Bills 24, Redskins 9
I don’t think anyone was surprised by this outcome, but it really wasn’t the dominant performance you’d want to see from the Bills…not on offense, not on defense.
The Bills started out hot…they took a 10-0 lead and against Dwayne Haskins, that should be money in the bank…at Buffalo, a quick two-score lead, facing a garbage QB. Yet, to start the 4th-quarter it was only 17-9 Bills. Buffalo scored a TD in the 4th-quarter on a nice, long drive and took the game from there. It wasn’t pretty and it wasn’t the assignation I figured it would be.
Buffalo is now a fortuitous 6-2…booking wins over NYJ, NYG, Cincy, Tennessee, Miami, and Washington this season. Their great claim to fame is ‘almost beating the Patriots’. Not that impressive. Buffalo needs to beat the Browns this week or their season might sag quickly. We see a very tentative 9-7 finish for the Bills. They beat the Browns this week, then I think 9-10 wins and the playoffs is firmly on the table given MIA and NYJ still on the schedule to come.
Washington is best ‘bad team’ out there. This defense has allowed 16-9-19-24 for points the last four games. They have a ton of young talent gaining experience and Jonathan Allen and Quinton Dunbar is back from injury to help solidify the front. The Redskins are not to be taken lightly (unless Haskins is the QB). I would say they are a sleeper DST ahead, but I won’t use willingly if Haskins is at QB.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I can only assume Devin Singletary (20-95-1, 3-45-0/4) is the starter from here on in?
He started the game. He started every series that I noted. He only came off some for Frank Gore (11-15-0) to take short yardage work, and fail at it and killing the flow of the offense. This team is much better with Singletary as the lead…and I think we have it now. I was only 9 weeks early on it.
He’s an RB1-1.5…to be taken seriously for PPR and Non.
There might be a game ahead where Devin gives too many touches to Gore, like after a Singletary fumble or whatever…but I’ll be shocked/not shocked if McDermott doesn’t ride Singletary the rest of the way – it’s beyond the obvious right call to make.
-- The Redskins reportedly are planning to start Dwayne Haskins (15-22 for 144 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) Week 11 v. NYJ. I’m not sure that I buy that yet. If they are, the Jets-DST is in play for sure. But I think the reports are more speculation than 100% fact.
Haskins did nothing here but show that if the Redskins want to lose/tank, they should start Haskins and tank away.
Like I said for weeks…more Haskins, worse for Terry McLaurin (4-39-0/6). That’s why you needed to sell off TML weeks ago, and many of you did adeptly.
-- I think WAS SAF Troy Apke (7 tackles, 1 TFL) might have won the job for good with his performance in this game. Perhaps, the most impressive young/off-the-radar safety I’ve this season. He’s so fast/athletic and now showing a toughness I didn’t think he had coming out of Penn State…but I saw it this preseason and it’s here in the regular season – he made a sweet goal line crushing stop on Frank Gore in this game. Love him for IDP, assuming Montae Nicholson doesn’t return as starter off injury.
-- What will happen Week 11 when Derrius Guice returns?
I think he might go right back to lead dog. He was the starter Week 1, right out of the gates. No questions asked or pussyfooting around with AP. If Bill Callahan has his say…it’s probably AP as lead in a split. If the people who employ him have their say, and they do, it will be Guice. Maybe even to the point of releasing AP so he can go play for a contender. Why not? He should be released and go sign with Minnesota to backup Dalvin Cook…it’s a great circle of life moment for his career.
I went back and re-re-watched Guice v. Philly Week 1 (10-18-0, 3-20-0/3)…weaker stat line but that Philly run D is great and a few big negative plays pulled this line down worse than it was. I thought Guice looked fine…looked like a legit main carry starting RB.
He’s not my favorite back, but he’s ‘good’. I think he’s an NFL issue (mentally) but for FF, I don’t really care about that right now. Not a great O-Line to work behind bit mostly a great schedule ahead. An RB1.5 type guy ahead.
-- What to make of the Bills-DST?
They had the great opening week vs. Sam Darnold, and then they’ve been just ‘good’…just the #13 DST in PPG since Week 2. They don’t get a ton of sacks or picks, they’re just good at football…AND they’ve had a gift schedule.
CLE-MIA-DEN should be OK the next three weeks, but then it may be time to run with DAL-BAL-PIT (OK here)-NE to finish. I’d like to find better…but what DSTs do you have super confidence in right now AND that have a corresponding schedule? Maybe use KC this week over BUF, if you want but then BUF works Weeks 11-12.
You could grab the Colts and go Indy v. MIA this week, BUF v. MIA next week, BUF v. DEN, then drop BUF while then Indy gets TEN and at TB Weeks 13-14. Just looking at DSTs not usually claimed to pair with Buffalo.
A cool match for the Bills-DST could be the Philly-DST. Use BUF next three weeks, then drop, and then Philly has at MIA-NYG-@WAS Weeks 13-15.
The Packers-DST could be the better play with Buffalo as they have @NYG, WAS, CHI Weeks 13-15.
With the Bills, you have options to skip this week or use the next three weeks and then get a good under-the-radar match about a week ahead of dumping the Bills-DST after Week 12.
Snap Counts of Interest:
41 = Singletary
21 = Gore
47 = Knox
16 = Kroft
54 = John Brown
42 = McKenzie
28 = Beasley
35 = Peterson
18 = Smallwood