2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 9 – Chargers 26, Packers 11
This was a pretty good beating handed down by the Chargers. Constant LAC drives down to the red zone, and then failure, but field goals…LAC kicked three FGs in the first half for a 9-0 halftime lead. The Packers could not get going on offense at all.
Another field goal made it 12-0 in the 3rd-quarter. A blocked punt setting up LAC in great field position led to a TD that broke the Packers…a 19-0 lead mid-3rd-quarter and an eventual 26-11 win…with Green Bay never really in this game at all.
The Chargers rise to 4-5…I’m not sure how they are back in the playoff hunt, but they are. Huge week for them at Oakland this week. Beat Oakland on TNF and they will be 5-5 headed to play the Chiefs Week 11 for an even bigger game. The Chargers have to win their next two games to get back into the playoff picture. Lose one or both and they are pretty much done.
The Packers are pretty overrated. They are 7-2 and I don’t think they’ve really show themselves better than any opponent except Week 5 at Dallas, when they got up to a massive lead and almost blew it late. The Packers are lucky not to be 4-5 right now with a lot of infighting.
The Packers have a kinda must-win with Carolina this week. If they lose this game, they will then lose at SF Week 12 (after a Week 11 BYE) and fall to 7-4 with some panic setting in. The Packers are tracking for 10-11 wins, but that projection might fall to 9-10 wins if they lose to Carolina this week…which is very possible. If Green Bay can beat Carolina this week, given the rest of the schedule – they should win the NFC North and hold off Minnesota but it’s a very fragile hold they have on the division with four of their final 6 games on the road.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- One of the issues Green Bay had here, it looked like to me, was that Aaron Rodgers was trying too hard to get Davante Adams (7-41-0/11) working and ‘it’ wasn’t there. Good coverage. Davante didn’t look 100%. Something just seemed off and the offense sputtered with Adams back…this offense looked way better when Rodgers was working everyone.
For fantasy, it seems like the Rodgers-Adams thing is still a thing. Adams’ work was either rusty…or we’re going to have an issue for a while with that turf toe effect.
-- Allen Lazard (3-44-0/4) actually led all Packers’ receivers in receiving yards for the game, but there was no real plan to work Lazard. He had one catch early, and then a 50+ yard bomb that was open, but Rodgers under-threw it up into the sun (as Lazard looked back into it). The final flurry of catches was late in the all-pass futile comeback effort. No real Lazard plan, but he is working like Rodgers’ #2 favorite…but that’s yielding WR3-4 output so far.
-- Time of possession and basically everything was dominated by the Chargers, and then with a big deficit…the Packers threw the run game out the window. So, I wouldn’t read too much into Aaron Jones (8-30-0, 1-0-0/4) with only 8 carries and Jamaal Williams (2-10-0, 6-39-1/6) with two carries.
I would read into the passing game numbers for Jamaal…4.3 rec. (4.7 targets), 27.8 yards, 1.0 TDs per game as a receiver the past 4 games. Williams is playing 40-55% of the snaps. He’s getting about 30-40%+ of the touches with Jones…and he’s thriving on receiving TDs. If he wasn’t converting TD catches the past few weeks…he might be dropped in some leagues, instead he’s trending as an RB2 starter hope this week in BYE week hell.
Only 3-7-2 for carries the past three games for Jamaal. He’s a very fragile, TD dependent RB2-3 right now.
-- Aaron Rodgers (23-35 for 161 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) had two great FF games Weeks 7-8 and that was re-coronated as greatness, but that ignores that his other 7 games this season have been mostly lame for FF.
If you ignore his 5 TD game vs. the worst pass defense in the NFL (OAK), Rodgers is averaging just 1.5 TD passes per game this season otherwise.
Ignoring the Oakland explosion, Rodgers has thrown for less than 250 yards in a game in five of his 8 other games.
I think this Packers’ offense has a lot of issues that were hidden by the Oakland game and a bunch of fortunate wins that should’ve been losses.
-- Melvin Gordon (20-80-2, 3-29-0/4) was struggling again in this game, but then LAC got a lead and they stuck with the run to work the clock and MG got fortunate 1-yard TD runs to push his FF numbers. I still don’t love what I see here.
-- Should we take the LAC-DST more seriously? I mean, they played a good game here, but they’ve struggled with a cake schedule to start 2019. The first 8 weeks of the season they faced: Brissett-Stafford-Watson-Rosen-Flacco-Devlin Hodges-Tannehill-Trubisky before this game with Rodgers. Hodges did not sweat them in his debut. Tannehill beat them and threw for 300+ yards. Terrible David Montgomery ran all over them Week 8. I’m not fully buying any LAC-DST uprising yet.
They are 5th-best in passing yards allowed, but some of that on teams running all over them…and teams have completed a near league high 72.2% of their passes on them with a 100.7 QB rating. The Chargers pass defense numbers are kinda similar to Washington’s (near identical in a lot of ways), but we think LAC is great because of Joey Bosa and think the Redskins are a joke…right?
Season to date comps…
100.7 QB rate allowed = LAC
100.7 QB rate allowed = WAS
72.2% Comp. Pct. allowed = LAC
72.5% Comp. Pct. allowed = WAS
13 TD/7 INT allowed = LAC
15 TD/8 INT allowed = WAS
208.7 pass yards allowed = LAC
230.1 pass yards allowed = WAS
21 sacks = LAC
21 sacks = WAS
And Washington has had a much tougher schedule to face.
The Chargers face a pretty underrated Oakland offense then Mahomes-back KC then a BYE. I don’t see the value ahead?
-- And how about the Packers-DST? It’s falling apart. They started out the season white hot, and then have allowed 400+ total yards in three of their last five games, and 425.0 total yards per game allowed average in that span. Teams are running all over them…and they get Christian McCaffrey this week.
Facing Carolina this week might be OK for their DST, but not if CMC runs all over them. Then they have a BYE and then get SF Week 12.
The Packers-DST value is Weeks 13-15 with @NYG, WAS, CHI.
Snap Counts of Interest:
45 = Gordon
24 = Ekeler
05 = J Jackson
32 = A Jones
24 = Jamaal
45 = Davante
37 = MVS
35 = Allison
25 = Lazard