2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 9 – Dolphins 26, Jets 18
The battle for the worst team in the NFL took a major shift when the Jets proved they were worse than the Miami Dolphins…a Miami win that throws Cincinnati to the #1 worst at 0-8, and now a new #2…the Jets.
The Jets earned every bit of this loss and all the heat they will take because of it. NYJ scored on their first drive, taking a 7-0 lead and you thought Miami just was never going to win this year. Then Ryan Fitzpatrick scored then next 21 points unanswered and you could see the better team was Miami. The Dolphins have been playing with some effort for weeks…and the Jets looked dead, and as soon as they got down…they died. They just don’t have the team, more importantly they don’t have the QB who can lead them back. Nor do they have the coaching.
The Jets are Cleveland levels of dysfunctional throughout the organization…only the Browns have a franchise QB. The Jets don’t.
How many teams would Peyton Manning like to wreck? I’m sure he’ll be an NFL GM soon. He talked NYG into the bad draft pick of Daniel Jones, and he also pushed NYJ to hire his buddy Adam Gase. Buffo be careful…Peyton seems to be working his way through the league with sabotage starting in New York and branching out from there. With a track record like that, no kidding here, there will be a bidding war in the future for Peyton as GM or Team President or Monday Night analyst. Amount of minutes I’ve seen of Peyton’s Places = 0.2…I don’t want to be infected with Peyton’s football knowledge like the Jets’ and Giants’ owners.
The Jets are now 1-7 and have a huge showdown game Week 13 at Cincy for ‘all the marbles’/the #1 pick in the draft. I don’t see another win on the schedule, but I’m sure they’ll grab one from somewhere. 2-3 wins tops.
Miami has jettisoned many veteran hacks and are going with C-Y-H players…cheap, young, and hungry. They have the Jets again on the schedule in a few weeks, so I’m sure that’s another win. Miami might accidentally win 3-4 games this season, as long as they stick with Fitzpatrick.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I’m not going to waste a ton of time talking about Sam Darnold (27-39 for 260 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) this week. I think I’ve made my point. However, because of the slanted football media…they’ll go quiet on this. It will be Adam Gase’s fault and the ex-GM’s fault, and 1st-year in the offense’s fault, and the O-Line’s fault. None of those things are helping Darnold, to be sure, but anyone with two unbiased eyes has to see this guy isn’t anything like they’ve made him out to be. How anyone could watch Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold at work, QBs playing on the worst organizations in the league, and not see how much better Baker is at everything by comparison shouldn’t be allowed to analyze QBs.
They all believed a lie with Darnold because that’s their analysis…whatever everyone else is saying.
Meanwhile, Ryan Fitzpatrick (24-36 for 288 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) just chugs along. You can have some faith in Fitz in favorable matchups because he attacks defenses. He’s not scared and throwing off his back foot all the time…like Darnold.
This was a game where Darnold faced the worst defense in the league who had just lost their top CB, their only legit cover guy and were missing their experienced safety. Miami had secondary guys in this game I’ve never heard of…and I know all the players. All that, and Darnold put up ANOTHER egg.
…and you won’t hear a peep about any issues with him from the mainstream football media. They’ll be too busy doing 10-minute standup routines on how bad Mitch Trubisky is. Sam Darnold will never have passer (or rushing) numbers in his career like Trubisky has had his last 20 games at QB. And Darnold may not win as many games as a starter in his whole career like Trubisky in his last 20 games. Where’s the outrage over Darnold? Where are the Bortles-comp jokes with him? The media is biased in silence in football just like politics.
-- Mark Walton (12-29-0, 3-12-0/4) got suspended for 4 games, as he should…what a record that guy has in the last 12 months -- and now we all wonder what the fantasy opportunity is.
First things first…remember that Walton has had all the gold the last two weeks and it has been meaningless in this offense. With that out of the way…
Kalen Ballage (7-19-0, 0-0-0/1) will not take all the work, because he has been proven terrible. He’ll likely start but after that who knows.
There might be a veteran RB brought in…Zach Zenner or C.J. Anderson. If you were the Dolphins’ GM, and had nothing to lose…wouldn’t you add a few young RBs off other team’s practice squads (Josh Adams, Samaje Perine, etc.) and give them a run and see if you got lucky? The Dolphins have ZERO RBs on their practice squad. The way teams are run in the NFL is beyond ridiculous.
Week 10 touch sharing with Ballage is likely between rookies Patrick Laird (UDFA) and Myles Gaskin (7th-round). I believe that winner would be Laird and have mentioned him a few times this season as one to watch rise up. Think Laird, think Danny Woodhead (discount Christian McCaffrey) – tough, shifty, good pass catcher. Think Myles Gaskin, think…if Mark Walton were slower and not a criminal. Laird is better, to me, in every way.
Here’s my reasoning on Laird over Gaskin, why I think it’s what is in Miami’s mind…
1) Laird has been active every game and played on special teams…the coach’s love/reward that. Gaskin has not been active or played a snap this season. I don’t even know why they have wasted a roster spot on him.
2) Here was preseason game #3 and #4 flow for RB usage…
Preseason game #3 was a somewhat dress rehearsal with starters type game. Kalen Ballage (soon to be Week 1 starter, but we all weren’t sure at the time given Drake…who was sitting out here) took all the work for like a half. Then Mark Walton after that. Then Patrick Laird. Then Gaskins mopping up.
Preseason game #4 was the game backups played and tried to earn their spots (so they say). Mark Walton started and played a few series, then it was Laird #2 and Gaskin mopped up again. A lot of late Gaskin mop up…meaning he was the least of the three, in the coach's mind, at the time.
3) This an ex-Patriots type staff…they value the versatility and grit of a Laird and will not just favor the drafted (very late) Gaskin.
To me, Laird will be better for Fantasy than Walton was. I think he could be a minor shock player in decent matchups. Nothing great, but better than Walton all around. Gaskin is more a lesser Walton but tries hard. I doubt Laird gets ALL the touches…he’d start out as a split role guy and just kinda steal the flow through effectiveness like he did in the preseason.
Patrick Laird measurables (Pro Day)…
5’11”/205, 9.4” hands, 30” arms, 75.3” wingspan
4.56 40-time, 1.55 10-yard
6.90 3-cone, 4.14 shuttle
34” vertical, 10’0” broad, no bench press
2018 college season (Cal): 961 rush yards, 4.3 ypc, 5 TDs, 51 catches for 288 yards receiving and 4 TDs
Myles Gaskin measurables (Combine)…
5’9”/205, 8.6” hands, 29.5” arms, 70.6” wingspan
4.58 40-time, 1.58 10-yard
7.19 3-cone, 4.27 shuttle
35.5” vertical, 9’10” broad, 24 reps bench press
2018 college season (Washington): 1,268 rush yards, 4.9 ypc, 12 TDs, 21 catches for 77 yards and 1 TD
*Reminder…if you signed up for the Dynasty Stash reporting when you signed up for FFM in-season back in the preseason – 2019 offense and IDP reports are posted and being re-ranked weekly and commentary added as we go. Every time I publish an update, there is an App notification…be sure to have the free FFM App to get (make sure you ‘allow’ them) any and all notifications. Not phone/tablet no notifications…you’ll just have to keep manually checking for updates.*
-- Of course, Preston Williams (5-72-2/9) gets his TDs when I had him benched more times than not.
Now, with this move higher, I can get excited to use during these heavy BYE weeks…which means, of course, Williams gets hurt (ACL) and is out for the rest of the year. This is like 2017 fantasy season for me/us…how many injuries to my guys can I deal with in one season? It’s the game. We keep marching on and adjusting. It’s the great equalizer and makes this game a real game – constant struggles to overcome.
How will Miami adjust? Where will primary targets go to?
Davante Parker (4-57-1/6) seems obvious, but may I remind all of us…Parker fails under pressure and good coverage, and now he’ll get that because #1 target Preston Williams is gone. But we have to assume he’s a WR3 hopeful again.
Jakeem Grant (3-33-0/5) isn’t playing many snaps, but when he is in Fitz is looking at him as a nice bubble screen option but also deep shot and quick hitters…he’s like Miami’s Tyreek if Miami would ever wake up. Grant can be a difference-maker. He might be the best deep-sleeper pickup of the week, at WR, now.
Mike Gesicki (6-95-0/6) could be a winner. I don’t like Gesicki as a talent, but Fitz is using him as he should – mismatch tall target with decent athleticism. With Preston gone, Fitz needs him even more now. Gesicki could have TE1 moments ahead for those with BYE week issues. He’s not the next great fantasy TE, despite his draft stock and measurables. He’s just in the right place at the right time, and he’s starting to play with confidence and has jump ball skills…which Fitz loves.
-- Le’Veon Bell (17-66-0, 8-55-0/9) is having an MRI done…Bell wasn’t visibly injured, so unsure what his issue is or how severe. Ty Montgomery got hurt in this game as well.
If Bell misses a game, Bilal Powell (2-16-0) would be in line for work on America’s worst offense.
If Bell is out for the season, for some reason, remember – Josh Adams is on their practice squad.
-- Jamison Crowder (8-83-1/9) does this…has a big game, gets everyone pulled back to him…then disappears for the next 2-3-4-5 games. You wanna trust the Crowder-to-Darnold connection? Be my guest.
Hunter Renfrow or Alex Erickson or Danny Amendola are as/more appealing to me.
The guy who keeps catching my eye, but he’s kinda stuck as a #4 WR…Vyncint Smith (1-20-0/3) looks and moves around like a star. Perfect NFL WR body. Gets open…was a 4.38 runner at his Pro Day. There’s something here, but not sure how to get excited because he’s a Jet.
-- Miami IDPs…
Nik Needham (9 tackles, 1 sacks, 1 TFL) got the start at CB and had an impressive IDP tally. He’s likely to get picked on, so maybe he’s gone IDP value.
Jomal Wiltz (9 tackles, 1 PD) ditto Needham. How these two are playing so much is head shaking, but here we are with a ton of injuries and Miami trying out guys.
I just wanna note on OLB Vince Biegel (2 tackles)… The guy has played 6 games this season, and only more snaps recently, but he has 10 QB hits on the season…3 in this game…8 QB hits the past 4 games. Just 1.0 sacks in those 8 QB Hits…but he’s getting there.
-- NYJ IDPs…
LB Brandon Copeland (9 tackles, 1 sacks, 2 TFLs) is forced into a bigger role with all the LB injuries…a sweet statistical debut. He looked pretty fast, aggressive here too.
CB Nate Hairston (6 tackles) has been hurt a few games but is back the last two weeks and started here…5.5 tackles per game the last two weeks. He should start the rest of the way.
Snap Counts of Interest:
51 = Walton
21 = Ballage
00 = Laird (20 special teams snaps)
57 = D Parker
51 = Preston Williams
30 = Hurns
25 = Al Wilson
14 =- Jakeem Grant
67 = Robby A
59 = Crowder
54 = Demaryius
17 = Vyncint Smith