2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 9 – Raiders 31, Lions 24
A back and forth game, all game. Not much defense. Oakland drove for a TD late in the game, taking the 31-24 lead with 2:06 left. Plenty of time for Detroit to tie/win the game.
The Lions drove down the field and got to the 1-yard line with seconds remaining. They ran a 4th & 1 play…a three tight end set with a fullback. They faked the run, which no one bought, and sent two, possibly three, slow TEs out for a pass and they were not close to open. It was possibly three because one was moving so slowly that I’m not sure if he went out for a pass or was blocking. Matt Stafford just threw it hoping for something, and an Oakland defender slapped the pass away from Logan Thomas to lockdown the win.
Matt Patricia is literally a rocket scientist from his college education. With the game on the line, Kenny Golladay is not in…nor is Marvin Jones or any other fast WRs. Instead, slow non-receiving threat TEs tried to get open in close quarters…and…surprise! They didn’t get open. Matt Patricia finds new ways to be dumb as a head coach with a super high IQ. It’s not rocket science, apparently.
The Lions fall to 3-4-1, losers of four of their last 5 games. They could be 8-1, legit 8-1…or they could be 0-9. All their games are that close, but they seem to find new ways to lose more than grab surprise wins. If they don’t go beat Chicago this week, the season is really over. We project them to lose this week and finish 6-9-1. 7-8-1 possible, and 8-7-1 not out of the question.
Oakland is 4-4 and if they can win their Week 10 TNF game, they would be 5-4, and could be sitting behind 6-4 KC (if KC were to lose).
Oakland then plays Cincinnati Week 11, which could push them to 6-4 and if the Chargers go beat KC Week 11…KC would 6-5 with LAC 5-6.
Oakland has the Jets Week 12…could take the Raiders to 7-4, with KC 6-5 on BYE. The Raiders could be in or tied for 1st place with three winnable games the next three weeks…heading into the huge Week 12 at Kansas City.
If Oakland loses with week, and everything else I wrote held true (KC loses their next two) -- then the AFC West after 12 weeks would look like: 6-5 LAC, 6-5 KC, 6-5 OAK. The winner of Week 10 TNF and how fast Mahomes is back and who wins Week 11 KC v. LAC could rock the AFC West. If KC wins the next two, they mostly put the AFC West behind them – thus, the importance of Mahomes returning ASAP.
We are projecting Oakland to 8-9 wins…but 9 wins and the playoffs possibly if they win at home vs. LAC on TNF this week. The Raiders control their own destiny right now.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Watching this live, I was disappointed in Ty Johnson (9-29-0, 3-7-0/3). I expected more. I hoped he’d break a big play and maybe that play coming in the passing game.
Re-watching it this week, I walked away more impressed with how well Ty ran the ball/played…he just couldn’t get going. He started several drives early with 5+ yard plays to get the drive started right, but then the Lions wouldn’t stick with him or never really worked him with space to get him up to/to utilize his high-end speed. All his passing game work was short, and none of it set up to get him out and rolling.
The Lions quickly turned to J.D. McKissic (4-32-0, 3-40-1/4) in passing downs in the 2nd-half…which is fine, but Oakland could soon tell what the offense was likely to do by who was in the game.
Part of the Detroit RB issue for production is terrible play design/calling…and, hey! Look who it is…Darrell Bevell, the worst O-C in professional football many years running. Matt Patricia is such a genius who learned so much from Bill Belichick. Who is stupid enough to hire Darrell Bevell? Rocket scientist Matt Patricia. You know, Patricia used to coach the Patriots defense…you know, what defense that got a thousand times better after he left? The other part of the Lions’ run game issue is the weak blocking by the Lions O-Line.
It’s a mess. How can we have much FF-confidence in Ty Johnson amidst this mess?
-- Am I worried about Darren Waller (2-52-0/2)…because of his last two games with just two catches each? I’m not Matthew Berry…I’m not worried, but Berry is.
Sure, defenses are focusing on Waller now…but that happens to all the top guys. Waller had his chances. They played possum with Waller some in this game -- leading defenders away or keeping Waller in to block some plays. OK, Detroit stopped/slowed Waller…congrats, they gave up 31 points and lost…but they stopped Waller! There are too many other options to always double Waller…and Waller is making some big plays on the targets he is getting. He’s going to be fine. He’s too good to be kept down for long.
-- Derek Carr (20-31 for 289 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) is working, which helps Waller and everyone else. Carr is playing some great football. TD passes in games since Week 3: 2-2-0-2-3-2. The zero the Chicago game they won, and he played well in. 11 TDs/2 INTs his last 6 games. Carr had two catches/plays land 1-3 yards short of TDs here…with a little luck he’s got a 3-4 TD day here.
Now, the yards are starting to pile up…293-285-289 the last three games, and nothing over 260 yards all season prior.
I’m pro-Carr. I think the offensive planning is smart. His blocking is really good. He has weapons to make use of. The schedule the rest of the way…you could start him every week the rest of the season if you needed to.
-- Matt Stafford (26-41 for 406 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) is even hotter than Carr. Since Week 4, Stafford’s TD passes in games: 3-0-4-3-3.
Since Week 4, Stafford is the #5 QB in fantasy PPG (4pts per pass TD)…#4 in 6pts per pass TD and nearly #1.
In warm weather/a dome this season…18 TDs/5 INTs in 6 games, 3.0 TDs per game.
Outdoors, neutral conditions (at PHI and GB)…1 TD/0 INT in 2 games.
Stafford is at Chicago in the cold/wind this week. Hosting Dallas, At, likely, colder Washington and then hosting Chicago. The two home/dome games ahead are facing better pass defenses. His next 4-5 weeks may not be as hot as they’ve been.
-- Hunter Renfrow (6-54-1/7) is averaging 5.0 rec., 71.0 yards, 1.0 TDs per game the last two weeks…but it feels more like circumstantial chance he’s popped some plays. He’s definitely not a primary look or plan that I see. Still a long shot play right now.
Snap Counts on Interest:
66 = Zay Jones
59 = Tyrell
57 = Waller
39 = Renfrow
37 = Moreau
44 = Ty Johnson
27 = McKissic