2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 9 – Texans 26, Jags 3
The Texans kicked a field goal with 5+ minutes left in the 3rd-quarter…a festival of field goals with both teams looking pretty sloppy. It looked like anyone’s game if someone could make a play. Houston was playing better all game, and Jacksonville was lethargic but hanging in…with a few dropped passes that might have turned the tide in key spots on 3rd-downs, that ended up as punts instead of 1st-downs. Jacksonville had their chances…they just aren’t a team that can afford to blow offensive opportunities.
It was 19-3 with 6+ minutes left in the game and then both teams started turning the ball over in a frenzy, and the Jags just could not make a play when they had to. To me, this loss into the BYE week -- it was the perfect time to fire Doug Marrone and try to refresh/save the season. To breathe new life, but they didn’t so the Jags will stumble to the finish.
Really, this game for the Jags…with a win they might have been a real strong wild card and possible division winner. In a huge spot, they blew it…the Doug Marrone epitaph. There’s a chance the Jags will get to a 6-6 record for Week 14 game hosting the Chargers…their playoff chances may come down to winning that game (and the Chargers may be out of it by then). The Jaguars need to win three of their next 4 to salvage this season – I just don’t think they have the coaching to do it, BUT when Nick Foles is at QB, anything is possible. He is the master of late season runs the last few years.
We see 8-8 for the Jags, but 9-10 wins is possible if Foles gets them on a roll and wins three of the next 4 (with @IND-@TEN-TB-LAC).
Houston books a HUGE win considering the Colts screwed themselves with a missed field goal to fall behind the Texans in the AFC South. Houston is on a BYE and then they have to find a win the next three weeks with @BAL-IND-NE. Win one of those games and they should win 10 games and take the division, but get swept and/or lose to Indy Week 12, at Houston…and the Texans fall into the 9-win blizzard of teams trying to get a wild card spot in the AFC.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Gardner Minshew (27-47 for 309 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs, 4-34-0) heads to the bench after some yeoman’s work filling in for Nick Foles. Had Minshew won this game with his performance the key – he’s still the QB Week 11. A bad loss opened the door for Foles.
It makes sense. The Jags spent millions on Foles, and they’ve seen one quarter of play so far. They really don’t know what they have with Foles…they have to see – especially with the guy who saved the last two seasons late in the season coming off the bench cold…winning a Super Bowl/MVP in one of them.
Foles has a good relationship with Chris Conley (2-32-0/7) but he also had one growing with D.J. Chark (4-32-0/9). The bomb play Week 1 that was a 30+ yard TD and broke Foles’s collarbone…it was to Chark. It started the Chark-mania.
Foles is in a position to be a shocking hero again…bringing a team from outside the race or in constant underdog positions to the playoffs. If Foles gets the Jags to the playoffs…Minshew mania is delayed until 2021.
-- For fantasy, I think Foles…
Helps/is fine with D.J. Chark. DJC has slowed a bit in output but there were a lot of near-miss and strong intent plays his way the last few weeks…he’s not disappearing. The schedule is an absolute dream ahead…@IND, @TEN, TB, LAC, @OAK, @ATL Weeks 11-16. All good weather games in the winter, and two dome events. Perfect set up. I’m buying Chark to the finish.
Could be great for Keelan Cole (5-80-0/6) if Dede Westbrook goes on I.R.
Chris Conley would be his usual hit-and-miss BYE week flex hopeful.
Given the schedule set up, Foles isn’t too bad to the finish either. At OAK, at ATL Weeks 15-16 is about as good as it gets. Patrick Mahomes has DEN and @CHI in the bitter cold Weeks 15-16 most likely. Just food for thought the next few days/weeks.
-- I thought Josh Oliver (1-4-0/2) was about to make some noise, instead my other ‘like’ TE Seth DeValve (4-41-0/5) ends up having the decent game…his best game as a Jag.
They about split snaps, so I’m not ready to get too excited one way or the other yet.
-- The not-DeAndre Hopkins #2 WR for the Texans has been nothing for eight of 9 weeks this season…the one week being where Will Fuller had a 4 TD game. With that, I’m done talking about them, including Kenny Stills (4-52-0/4). If I needed this kind of erratic, mostly disappointing FF-numbers, I could just hook up with Ted Ginn for a week if I needed to.
Keke Coutee has been benched for ‘issues’…so, kiss that one good-bye too.
-- If anyone is keeping track, Carlos Hyde (19-16-0-0, 0-0-0/1) is now 8th in the league in rushing this season…ahead of guys like Derrick Henry, Mark Ingram, Aaron Jones, Le’Veon Bell, David Montgomery, etc.
He’s just not getting many TDs or catches…but, yards he is getting.
-- Duke 3rd-year UDFA CB Breon Borders (6 tackles) got his first start/real playing time in place of injured D.J. Hayden. Borders is nothing special that I see…5’11”/189 with a 4.49 40-time, 6.98 three-cone from his Pro Day. Pretty standard fare corner. Played four years at Duke. He’s solid, but likely back to the bench when Hayden is ready.
-- Brennan Scarlett (2 tackles, 2.0 sacks) is the J.J. Watt replacement…and a nice debut – two sacks. I don’t think Scarlett is that great, but Houston likes him. 3.5 sacks his past 5 games.
Snap Counts of Interest:
63 = Chark
58 = Conley
54 = Cole
34 = DeValve
30 = Oliver
38 = Hyde
34 = Duke