2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 1 Game Analysis: Bills 27, Jets 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Bills got out to a 21-0 lead in the 2nd-quarter and then meandered around the rest of the game and drifted to a 10-point win. The difference in play was greater than a 10-point win.
The Bills decided to game plan Josh Allen as Lamar Jackson in this game…a purposeful runner. Actually, I don’t know that Lamar is running the ball with as much purpose as Allen. It was effective enough, despite two Allen fumbles running the ball, to put the Jets to sleep. The Jets have no offense. Sam Darnold is straight up bust, and the Bills were never worrying at any point in this game.
I thought this was going to be a dull rewatch, but there were several things I had my eyes opened to for fantasy. We’ll see if you agree.
The Bills face at MIA, LAR, at LV, at TEN, KC the next five weeks – not an easy schedule considering the Miami game this week is at Miami in heat/humidity, a tough place to play on the road. The Bills might be in some trouble the next few weeks. Everything seems rosy now, but this Bills team and DST might be entering some not-great matchups the next few weeks. Don’t get too settled with the Bills DST right now, especially after Week 2.
The Jets, God love them…they played hard to the end. Especially on defense. Credit Gregg Williams – he might be the most annoying person in the NFL and its best defensive coach of any unit with mediocre talent. Williams is a minor miracle worker stuck with a disastrous offense keeping a lid on his defensive potential. Don’t take the Jets, because of their defense, like last season, lightly. They’re not winning the division or anything but be careful laying a lot of points to them on a pick/bet.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Let’s talk about the Jets non-Le’Veon backfield outlook ahead…
Frank Gore (6-24-0) will be ‘the guy’, no doubt. The Jets are trying to win, and they can by ball control (minimizing Darnold) and letting the defense make plays. The Jets would like Gore to run the ball 20+ times this week and try to stay close/win late vs. SF. A tall order…but that’s the hope.
When the Jets cannot hang with SF, and the game gets out of hand…we might get my boy Josh Adams’s (2-8-1, 2-14-0/2) last-best chance to show the NFL what he did as a rookie. If the game gets too big a deficit for the Jets, then Adams will get resting-Gore carries. Adams might be a minor shock in limited time against a 2nd-unit/prevent group for the 49ers. At least, it looks that way in my mind.
I have to say, Rewatching this game, Adams still has ‘it’. There is hope here. But I know, in reality, he’ll never get the chance. But if Gore gets dinged up…
Adams was sent back to the practice squad yesterday -- but remember that’s a new procedural thing during COVID teams can do right before the game and during the week. Two players can be active from the PS before game-time Sunday…and Adams was, and got to play. He can be raised back up Sunday and be the Jets’ #2 RB.
…or, he doesn’t, because Adam Gase is a lunatic and Kalen Ballage is his guy. Stop and think, though – Ballage has been available for weeks. The Jets didn’t do anything about it. Now, in a crisis, they added him because they need ANYBODY for depth right now. This week, Gore will be ‘the guy’ and Adams will sprinkle in and try to show magic. Ballage may never see the field. He isn’t a Jet already because he failed a physical, so is he magically healthy/in shape now?
If I were made an NFL GM today, one of my first acts would be to claim Adams off the Jets practice squad.
-- What to do with Le’Veon Bell (6-14-0, 2-32-0/2)?
Let me say this: I’m a buyer. I’ll take your Le’Veon giveaway stock. I’m a buyer for pennies on the dollar. Why? Two reasons:
1) Le’Veon really looked good this game. The beat writer who tried to destroy him and elevate magic unicorn rookie Lamical Perine a few weeks ago, is, as always with beat writers, an idiot. Bell looked as nimble as I’ve seen him…kinda like David Johnson Thursday night (but not as good as DJ).
It’s a shame Bell got hurt here, because he was in a place to be an RB1 in PPR on this dreadful team. He would have had 4-8 catches and near 100 total yards or more had he been healthy all game. If you have Bell, you probably think it’s not that big a deal you lost him…no, you lost a serious RB1 PPR hope from your grasp. This stings…even if you don’t realize it. Lost (nice) opportunity.
2) So, Le’Veon will return in Week 5. What would you say the Jets’ record will be then? 0-5? 1-4? Either of those means it’s time to clean house. Le’Veon will be kept on I.R. until he’s 100%...and likely never play another snap for the Jets. It’s the perfect time to trade Bell…while he’s not on the field with no risk of getting hurt and blowing his value.
100% healthy, looking good/great Le’Veon Bell could be the starting RB for…the Pittsburgh Steelers? The Washington Redskins (if they are hanging in)? The Saints if Kamara’s back gives out? Seattle…because, why not?
Le’Veon with the Jets works for FF. Le’Veon to greener pastures is even better for FF. Don’t give up on him. If you can acquire for nothing and stick him on I.R. right now – do it before people realize the timing of Bell being traded away, which will jack his value on the rumors and the reality.
-- What about the Bills backfield/run game?
I love the Bills’ lead back. He’s great…he’s going to be great for fantasy all season. A top 10 scorer at his position. People can keep trying to deny him his scoring prowess but he’s a top guy.
No, I’m not talking about Devin Singletary (9-30-0, 5-23-0/7). Who likes him anyway? I mean, Bills lead back, Josh Allen (14-57-1, 33-46 for 312 yards, 2 TD/0 INT).
Carries in this game…
14 = Allen
09 = Singletary
09 = Moss
And this wasn’t all Allen dropping back and deciding to scramble. I’m not fighting this anymore. He’s not going to pass for big numbers most weeks, but he runs on purpose and not on purpose about 10 times a game and is effective at it. He’ll score 7-10 rushing TDs this season (10 rush TDs is equal to 15 pass TDs in 4pts…plus he’ll throw for 20 or so TD passes on top of it). He’s a legit top 5-8 QB in 4pts per pass TD scoring. I’m not going to talk about his accuracy again because it’s his running that matters.
When Allen isn’t running the ball, the Bills used Singletary as the lead/starter and main PPR back. Magical unicorn rookie RB Zack Moss (9-11-0, 3-16-1/4) looked exactly like I said/scouted – he’s James Conner. A James Conner back is one who thinks he’s faster and more elusive than he is, and tries really hard, and people love that…and then at the end of the day you have ‘meh’ results. The preseason beat writers sold you a bag of beads here too. Moss is nowhere near as good as Singletary. It was ridiculous to suggest otherwise, but that’s what you get with untrained, unstudied beat writers who are more ‘casual fans’ than they are real studied analysts.
Moss graced us with a stellar 1.2 yards per carry in his debut but did catch a TD on a broken/scramble play and he was open in the end zone.
Moss is the ‘Gore role’…30%+ of the snaps, some goal line work. Handy. Useful. Not hugely FF impactful. But he will suck some touches away from Singletary, but outside of like 6-7 RBs in the league…all RBs are splitting with someone to some degree. The Singletary FF-problem is Josh Allen’s running, especially near the goal line. Singletary will have more RB2-3 games than RB1-2 affairs…but when the going gets tough, not playing the hapless Jets – Singletary will be leaned on by Sean McDermott…not Moss.
-- Because Sam Darnold (21-35 for 215 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) is an abomination, you can’t count on anything from the Jets’ WRs outside of Jamison Crowder (7-115-1/13) and you have to be wary of him too.
Your Breshad Perriman or Denzel Mims stock is near useless until a QB change comes, and that change will not happen on purpose until 2022.
-- The Jets-DST was impressive to me again. I saw ‘it’ with them last year, but they kept taking on mass injuries and their offense does not help them. But there is a reason the Jets had the best record in the AFC East the 2nd-half of 2019 season. Gregg Williams is doing ‘Coach of the Year’ things as a D-C again…he’s been a miracle worker through a ton of injuries for two seasons now. Don’t be surprised if they give the 49ers a threat this week, and Jonathan Taylor is not in for a good matchup Week 3 v NYJ.
Two IDP things from the Jets…
1) Marcus Maye (10 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 PDs) is playing the Jamal Adams role as good/better than Adams. He is THEE hottest pickup in IDP. I didn’t fully realize it until I rewatched here.
2) Bless Austin (8 tackles, 1 PD) is a man playing corner…like a linebacker playing corner. He’s a legit DB, especially CB, pickup and see if he pays off with consistent numbers.
Snap Counts of Interest:
51 = Singletary
39 = Moss
32 = Le’Veon
14 = Gore
13 = Josh Adams