2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Colts 34, Titans 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I cannot believe the Colts won this game…after watching how it started.
I cannot believe the Colts are going to walk away with the AFC South title, but now I’m convinced they are.
The Titans looked like the superior team from the jump…a quick 7-0 lead for the Titans. A 17-13 lead for Tennessee at the half. Then it all started falling apart…shanked punts, blocked punts, missed FGs – the Titans did this to themselves. Mike Vrabel is sinking his 2020 season like Frank Reich did last year by sticking with his failing ex-Patriots kicker too long (last year it was Adam Vinatieri). Tennessee had the better offense and defense for the first half+ of this game, but then special teams melted and it bled into the other aspects…and the blowout was on, but it shouldn't have been.
Late 3rd-quarter, leading 17-13, Tennessee punted from deep in their own territory…a 17-yard shanked punt set up a quick Indy TD and a first time in the game Colts lead 20-17. Next series, the Titans got a punt blocked and returned for a TD…27-17 Indy. Tennessee drove down and set up for a field goal to close it to a one score game and Steven Gostkowski missed it…making him three of his last 8 FG attempts over the last six games.
Tennessee falls to (6-3) and into a tie for the AFC South, of which they just lost the tiebreaker to the Colts here. The Titans might lose at BAL, at IND the next two weeks and their season starts to get flushed down the drain. Beneficiaries of lucky/close wins early in the season – and that luck is starting to turn against them now. We project Tennessee to (9-7) now, which should be good enough to sneak into the playoffs again.
The Colts are technically in first place in the AFC South (6-3), but they do not look that great – just a beneficiary of a weak schedule so far…and then they had this game given to them by Tennessee’s miscues. We see Indy finishing with 9 wins as well but winning the AFC South with that identical record with Tennessee, but owning the tiebreaker over them. The Colts have a better chance to get to 10 wins than the Titans do, right now.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- This Colts backfield, oy vey…
Jonathan Taylor (7-12-0, 2-25-0/2) is a near-death experience now for FF…debatable on -- do drop or hold this week?
Two things on Taylor…
1) He’s the kind of back you feed 15-20+ times and pound away on opponents with. He needs a steady flow of touches, like the guy across the field from him gets. Taylor in 2020 gets treated like if the Dallas Cowboys drafted Ezekiel Elliott and then put him in a three-way RBBC. Like he’d come into the game and get a carry and then instantly run off the field, then back in 3 plays later, then out again, and back-and-forth all game long…never getting into any rhythm. You’d be confused and/or livid watching Derrick Henry or Zeke Elliott or Josh Jacobs, etc., get that treatment.
But Taylor wasn’t a 1st-round pick, so he doesn’t really matter, no one really cares. The way he should be used…he’s getting used the exact opposite. He logs three games worth of energy in one game…there’s the one game he plays on the field, then there’s the two games worth of time he’s sprinting off the field/out of the rotation and then sprinting back on…and back and forth wasting his legs all game.
The way Frank Reich is using him…near useless for Taylor or FF.
2) Current owners of Taylor in Dynasty have to be disgusted. We wasted a top draft pick on this? If you believe in Taylor for the future, not the now, and you didn’t get a chance to rookie draft…the price to acquire him is radically reduced.
A lesson, once again…these Dynasty Rookie Drafts are WAY overvalued. Everyone gives a kidney to get a high draft pick or cries when they don’t have a hot top rookie pick to make…and then these coveted rookies, halfway into their rookie season, we end up hating or are disappointed with most all of them…they cannot live up to our hype so they seem terrible (if you’re the highly vested owner).
Then they pop a year later, and non-owners of a hot rookie missed a window to acquire in their disappointing rookie season because they got scared off/lost the rookie hype on them too.
If you believe in Taylor, now is the time to shop for a bargain…not pay any price to do it -- but make someone bleed, get a deal.
Nyheim Hines (12-70-1, 5-45-1/6) will be the top waiver RB of the week, I can feel it. We all just saw him play well on cable television, so now ‘it’s real’.
May I caution you…Reich is going RBBC every week; you can’t bank on anything with the Colts backfield for FF. The game prior to this, Hines barely touched the ball and Jordan Wilkins (8-28-0, 0-0-0/1) was what everyone wanted. Now, it’s Hines…which will be wrong next week because Taylor will probably spike up and then everyone will believe in him, and then he’ll fail in a follow up…and round and round she goes.
Don’t get into this RBBC hell if you don’t have to.
-- I don’t want any Colts offensive players, but if I had to…I guess Michael Pittman (7-101-0/8) just got my attention. I LOVE Pittman, but I didn’t think he was going to bump up to the #1 guy so fast. Parris Campbell is out. T.Y. Hilton died and went to WR heaven weeks ago. And Marcus Johnson (0-0-0/1), who I thought was the top guy for Rivers…he was benched.
Pittman is the guy, but I don’t want to have anything tied to Philip Rivers. Next week Jaire Alexander will go on Pittman, and everyone will jump off him. The schedule ahead, except Week 12 rematch with TENN looks bad for the Indy #1 WR, assuming it is Pittman now.
-- Maybe I don’t want the Titans #1 WR either?
What the hell was that A.J. Brown (1-21-0/4)? A terrible title for a kid’s Christmas Cartoon and a terrible fantasy football egg at this juncture.
He actually caught his lone pass on the 2nd play of the game…and then a big fat zero the rest of the way. It was so bad, Jonathan Taylor outscored him in PPR and Standard.
No clue, but it’s a bit distressing…but I think it’s more Xavier Rhodes (3 tackles, 1 PD) really is back in shutdown mode.
I guess, it’s not a bad time to inquire about AJB in a trade? Maybe the current owner is furious? Mostly, people seem to be of the mindset this bad week was just a blip. However, just note…two out of AJB’s last 3 games, he’s been under 25 yards receiving. He’s making one big play most weeks to save his FF scoring…but his real on-field work has been erratic, and teams are putting more coverage on him and he’s not a good enough receiver, nor is this passing game so high powered, to bust through that.
BAL and IND the next two weeks, he may get shut down two more times. Actually, I’ll take a rain check on that ‘buy low’ statement. I’ll pass for the rest of 2020.
-- Speaking of things starting to fade off a little bit…Ryan Tannehill (15-27 for 147 yards, 1 TD/0 INT).
Tanny has been under 240 yards passing in five of his last 6 games…and under 240 yards in four-straight, and he’s been under 200 yards passing back-to-back weeks. When the Titans face a tough pass defense, the results are ‘low’ volume. And he’s facing BAL-IND the next two weeks. Not good.
The schedule is more favorable Week 13 on.
-- Jonnu Smith (2-14-0/6, 1-1-1) is not helping the Tennessee pass game cause…or the pass game is not helping Jonnu, one or the other.
Had Jonnu not gotten that jet sweep TD run…it would have been FIVE fantasy duds in a row. The past five games, Jonnu has 1-1-2-2-2 for catches in games and less than 35 yards in all five games. Had he not run for that TD here, you’d be dropping him in regular redraft this week.
Smith got decent target volume in this game, finally, but he was rarely/never open. Indy is stout vs. the TE. Jonnu has BAL-IND the next two weeks, which is not great either.
-- Rodrigo Blankenship (2/2 FGs, 4/4 XPs) has a sweet next five games of ‘conditions’ to kick in…
Week 11 = home/dome
Week 12 = home/dome
Week 13 = at HOU/dome
Week 14 = at LV/dome
Week 15 = home/dome
Then a bad Week 16…at Pittsburgh.
-- I know the Titans’ DST schedule looks decent ahead, kinda-sorta…but I am joining the ‘this Titans defense sucks’ crowd. Even though there is hope with the Desmond King trade and Adoree Jackson should be back Week 11. Two problems…
Jadeveon Clowney (4 tackles, 1 TFL) is an overrated waste of space…he plays at 50% effort most of the time and has a moment here and there. He’s not a menace, he’s actually a liability.
Even worse than Clowney, and I did not pick up on it until this re-watch, but I saw something live watch that I made note of…then watched for it on the re-watch and saw it, I think.
The ‘it’ is that SAF Kenny Vaccaro (8 tackles) is mailing it in. He’s playing like Mark Barron did for the Steelers last year -- a little delayed/late to the draw, on purpose, on things to stay out of the fray. Giving up early (half speed running) or not even trying to chase after plays gone past him. Purposefully trying to get caught up into coverage so he doesn’t ‘notice’ a ballcarrier running nearby, so he doesn’t have to really pursue or is way behind the play. When he is near a play, he tackles like he’s gently putting a baby to sleep…a lot of arm tackling or grab and hold to fall to the ground with them – no real full speed blasts.
Now, I know why the Titans defense is dying…they have at least two players on the field 70%+ of the snaps who could care less/aren’t making extra effort.
-- IND SAF Khari Willis (8 tackles) is on fire lately…
3.4 total tackles per game per game his first 5 games, 8.5 total tackles per game his last 4 games. Nothing I see has changed, and he’s started every game this season…just tackling a lot lately. He doesn’t stand out on tape one way or the other, but the numbers are nice of late.
Snap Counts of Interest…
38 = D Henry
17 = McNichols
09 = Foreman
57 = Pittman
47 = Pascal
47 = Hilton
18 = Marcus Johnson
39 = Hines
17 = Taylor
14 = Wilkins