2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Lions 30, Football Team 27
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I had forgotten, until the re-watch, that the Lions led this game 24-3 midway through the 3rd-quarter…and it seemed over at the time. Three TDs over the next 15 minutes of play got the F-Team tied with 6+ minutes left to play. They exchanged field goals from there, with F-Team tying it 27-27 with 0:16 left.
Looks like we’re heading to OT.
BUT…with that 0:16 left, the first play of the drive, the Lions threw an incomplete pass but Chase Young trying to win the award for stupidest play of 2020…was two steps from Matt Stafford as the ball was thrown and then he came up to a turned-away-Stafford and pushed him from behind, not hard, but hard enough…and drew the roughing penalty – and suddenly the Lions were a 8-15-yard play away from possible makeable FG range. Detroit then got a quick 9-yard throw, and then Matt Prater nailed a 59-yarder at the buzzer to win it.
Tag this loss to Chase Young, who has quietly been terrible/a disappointment all season. Young has a meager 3.5 sacks this season, and just 4 QB hits total…Everson Griffen had 5 QB hits in this game alone. But Washington couldn’t draft Justin Herbert #2 because they had Dwayne Haskins, so they were all set…and Chase Young was so generational. So far…not a great decision for a franchise who should change their name to the ‘Bad Decisions’…
I’m starting to think maybe Ron Rivera is just a horrific head coach. I can’t figure it out. Washington should be in 1st-place in this crap division, but Rivera is like an unlucky rabbit’s foot making decisions and losing close games. Rivera is (2-15) in his last 17 games coached. Washington is (2-7) and somehow still alive in the NFC East race. We see them hitting 4 wins and not winning the division.
Detroit is now (4-5) and still in the wild card race…and they have a schedule that might allow them to not only stay in the race for a bit, but make a little noise for the NFC North if GB falters. Detroit has three winnable games ahead…at CAR, HOU, at CHI…the Lions could (in make-believe world) be (7-5) hosting GB, who with some pro-Lions luck could by (8-5) going into that game…a battle for 1st-place could ensue.
Now, this is the Lions we’re talking about…so there is NO WAY they could have that happen, but it’s not totally dead for them yet. We project them to wind up with 6-7 wins at this point by season’s end.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Let’s start with Alex Smith (38-55 for 390 yards, 0 TD/0 INT)…
Back-to-back games with 300+ yards passing has everyone excited but note that this is not ‘normal’ for Alex Smith, or desired by the coaches.
The F-Team was 20-3 in Week 9 before closing the gap some late, and down 24-3 here, before racing back into things. When they’re down big they are throwing, a lot, obviously. So, Smith has a ton of attempts the past two games, but it’s for lower yards per…and he has 1 TD/3 INTs total in 104 pass attempts this season.
Smith is playing an even more dink-and-dunk game than ever before. If you want big F-Team pass game work/output, you better pray Washington gets down big fast and has to all-throw back into it.
Comments on some guys Smith is throwing to…
J.D. McKissic (7-43-0/15) is going to lead all NFL RBs in catches this season IF Smith stays in the rest of the season. 14 and 15 targets in Smith’s two starts…and if Washington gets up and isn’t throwing as much, this number will dip – but JDM will still be the top target for the dink-and-dunker.
Logan Thomas (4-66-0/5) could suffer a dip when/if the pass game dips when Washington ever plays with a lead/close in games. The Washington O-Line is falling apart, and Thomas is needed for blocking more than ever. He’ll still get you 3-4 catches in games, and then you just hope Smith throws a TD to him…but Smith has 1 TD pass in 104 pass attempts this season, so good luck with all that.
Cam Sims (4-54-0/5) still looks really good to me, but in 55 throws with Sims playing 95%+ of the snaps here…Sims only saw 5 targets. Makes me worry about getting too excited about the future, but I want to be…
Steve Sims (5-46-0/6) got good targeting, but he is really inconsequential for the most part. It’s like he’s not even there. When he gets a target, you’re like…oh, yeah he’s on the team still. He played 45% of the snaps in a heavy pass game
-- Matt Stafford (24-33 for 276 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) hurt his throwing hand in this game…and has been a disappointment all season, and here facing what was the #1 pass defense in the NFL at the time – he gets 3 TD passes with 276 yards. I can’t explain how football works…
It was a clunky performance, but it worked. Stafford hit a 55-yard TD pass to Marvin Hall (2-61-1/3) early…where the covering DB bumped into Hall and fell down and left Hall wide open for an easy score. Two key 3rd-stops were wiped off by late hit penalties to extend drives to give Stafford more numbers. It was one of the luckiest games he’ll ever play…but it worked for FF.
Stafford is playing through the hand injury and may get Kenny Golladay back soon, which will kill off any Marvin Hall FF-hopes and send Marvin Jones (8-96-1/10) back to purgatory.
Thank you, Marvin…for doing nothing early in the season and thus me cutting you and then you score 4 TDs in your last 3 games. Not for FF-me he hasn’t.
-- Everson Griffen (3 tackles, 1 sack, 5 QB hits) has had a terrible season so far, but he has played Washington twice the past 3 games…once with Dallas and once with Detroit (after his trade). In those two games, Griffen has 2.0 sacks (of 3.0 all season) and 7 QB hits (of 9 all season).
The best pass rushing IDP facing Washington’s O-Line is money for sacks…and they just lost another key OL for this week/Week 11!!
-- Griffen had those 5 QB hits, and the Lions tallied 8 QB hits in all…a very average/normal amount for a team in a game. The F-Team, with it’s great D-Line…they got 1 QB hit all game with Smith throwing 55 times. What in the Football Team is going on? Washington had 5 sacks and 9 QB hits the week before, so I don’t know how they flopped here. It’s not like Detroit has a great O-Line. I’ll assume a blip until further notice.
Washington-DST faces Cincy, the 2nd-most sacked team in the NFL. If they do not log 4+ sacks this week, something is wrong with the F-Team defense.
*Late note: D’Andre Swift went on concussion protocol on Thursday, with no signs prior from game play etc., so it had to happen in practice. If he is out…I think Kerryon Johnson might get a 70/30 split of work here and be a surprise of the week. Most will think AP, but AP played 8 snaps this game…Kerryon 9. Not that the snap count proves anything…more proves Detroit is ‘over’ AP, potentially. Worst case, Kerryon would be a PPR back in a sense.
Snap Counts of Interest:
43 = Swift
09 = Kerryon
07 = AP
86 = McLaurin
83 = Cam Sims
40 = Stv Sims
29 = Is Wright
62 = McKissic
33 = Gibson