2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Raiders 37, Broncos 12
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The odd thing about this game was…it ended up a blowout, but Denver was going toe-to-toe the 1st-half, and at the goal line and just threw a TD pass to take a 12-10 lead (XP pending) but a penalty erased it and on the next play Drew Lock threw a terrible pick and the game turned from there. Denver could’ve had the halftime lead, but they blew it and then just gave it away from there. The Raiders didn’t win this as much as they just let Denver faceplant and walked right by them.
Las Vegas is now (6-3), and headed to the playoffs…huge game with KC Week 11, one I assume they’ll lose big and then go on with their wild card chase – which they will get with a 10 win or better season. If LV defeats KC Week 11…all hell will break loose in the AFC West! Still, KC is going to win that division.
Denver (3-6) is moving towards its destiny…out of the playoffs, contemplating firing Vic Fangio, but needed to replace/dump Drew Lock. All three of those things are John Elway’s fault…but nothing is ever Elway’s fault, so none of them may be addressed this season. Terrible schedule the rest of the way for a team that is checking out…Denver should finish with 4-5 wins tops.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- How long does Vic Fangio…or John Elway…let this Drew Lock (23-47 for 257 yards, 1 TD/4 INTs) go on for?
7 TDs/10 INTs this season…with a 55.0% Comp. Pct.
9 TD passes in his last 10 games, back to 2019…Justin Herbert is getting that in like 3 games, as a rookie. Lock is not under major duress due to a bad O-Line…Lock just sucks. The faster they admit it, the faster they can change their fate.
…but John Elway is so awful at picking QBs, it doesn’t really matter.
Because Denver is so bad at QB, whether they stick with Lock…turn to Brett Rypien…or draft a new wrong one in 2021…all the related weapons are hurt by it for FF.
Tim Patrick (4-61-0/6) is having to pull off miracle catches to even have catches week-to-week.
Jerry Jeudy (4-68-0/8) is an average WR, made out to be a great WR. He’s just ‘there’…and catching just 49.3% of his targets, a bad number for a WR. He officially has 3 drops, but he has 6+ by my count…and I’m not a harsh judge of those things – he’s just getting favorable calls from the scorekeepers to protect their guy.
Noah Fant (3-18-0/7) can only be so good in this mess. Ditto the outlook for Courtland Sutton ahead.
A tougher schedule ahead for the QB/WRs/team…I want nothing to do with the DEN WRs for the ROS. And I assume for 2021 as well, but let’s see what happens this offseason. I assume it all goes poorly.
-- But I’d rather have the Denver WRs than the Las Vegas ones for fantasy. Why? The Raiders wide receivers never see the ball consistently.
Nelson Agholor (1-8-0/4) is their #1 WR…and he got 4 targets here, continuing his string of low target games.
Henry Ruggs (3-31-0/4) and Bryan Edwards (1-16-0/1) are ghosts…why did they draft all these WRs, not to throw to them?
Even Darren Waller (3-37-0/5) is quietly stalling out. You think Waller is some kind of TE god you wish you had for FF right now, because your TEs suck? Waller has not had a game over 37 yards in three weeks…no games over 50 yards the past five games.
Really, looking back on it, Waller has had two monster games and then a bunch of random/solid/not-exciting work…just like most TEs are putting in.
Since Week 8, Waller is the #9 TE in PPR PPG.
Since Week 3, Waller is top 5 in PPG, but he nowhere close to Travis Kelce (18.3 PPR PPG to 11.3)…but is a half-step better than the throng of TE2s trying to be TE1s (Waller is 1.5 PPR PPG from being #10 since Week 3). He’s closer to falling out of TE1 status than he is getting close to Kelce. BUT, with that said, all non-Kelce TEs suck and Waller is probably the next best thing among all the TE things out there…but it’s not been as good as you think, if you don’t own him and know it/live with it lately.
-- Jon Gruden is like Mike Zimmer…if he can get a lead, he will run it every play if he can.
Las Vegas ran the ball 41 times this game for 203 yards and 4 TDs.
There were 41 rushed + 16 catches in this game = 57 touches.
46 of the 57 touches were to run game and RB pass game.
WRs saw 8 touches total. You can’t exist with that for fantasy with their WRs.
Devontae Booker (16-81-2, 1-2-0/1) matters on a certain level. Lately, he’s getting, as a backup, similar touches to J.K. Dobbins or Jonathan Taylor or Darrell Henderson (among others)…and Booker is much more productive with his work of late – 3 TDs his last 2 games.
-- Let me just throw this out there…
The Raiders-DST has started to get back their injured and COVID DBs. Their D-Line is starting to rush the pass a little bit better. Their schedule is easing up. They held Cleveland to 6 points in the wind/cold Week 8. They held Denver to 12 points here with 5 turnovers. They are slowly moving from bottom 5-10 in defensive metrics to middle of the pack this season.
All that to say…Week 13 at NYJ…the Raiders-DST may be worth the early pickup if your league is hoarding DSTs (as they seem to be all over this year. Why? Because all defenses stink unless they are playing bad offenses, so people are searching in vain for DST hope).
Snap Counts of Interest:
45 = Ruggs
43 = Agholor
34 = Renfrow
20 = Bry Edwards
43 = Jacobs
26 = Booker
40 = Gordon
21 = Lindsay
10 = Royce Freeman