2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Rams 23, Seahawks 16
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Rams got up 10-7 in this game, in the last 1st-quarter…and they just led the rest of the way and won the game. Seattle had chances, but the Rams defense held in key spots every time. Seattle converted 50% of its third downs, which is usually a good number foretelling of a nice offensive showing…but Russell Wilson didn’t throw a TD pass, did throw two picks…really threw a third pick which was a pick-six, but reversed by penalty – something just seemed off, the Rams played solid D and just out-efficiency’d the Seahawks. Seattle scored a season low 16 points and just 1 TD here.
The football world sees this as some great win by the Rams, and some weird let down by Seattle – but the Seahawks aren’t a ‘great’ team. I’m not sure beating Seattle is the big victory we think/feel it is right now. Seattle losing to good teams…it shouldn’t be a shock. They’ve lost three of their last 4 games, but we act like Seattle is this Super Bowl juggernaut. They are not. They’re like the Mike McCarthy Green Bay Packers of the past decade – poorly coached, saved by the elite QB so you don’t notice how bad they are, wins enough games because of the QB to keep respect/keep jobs…but we look back in 10 years and wonder why they never went to the Super Bowl again over a decade with one of the greatest QBs to ever play the game…Pete Carroll is quietly following that McCarthy-GB blueprint?
Seattle is now (6-3) and is playing a huge statement game on TNF this week hosting Arizona. If Seattle can win that game, and I think they will, they have a very easy schedule ahead and can get to 11-12 wins and keep everyone conned. If they lose to Arizona, then Seattle has way more issues than we’ve all realized and they are headed to a 9-10 win season and a wild card more likely. Boy, is their schedule ahead a gift to save them, though.
The Rams are now (6-3) as well. They have a bit harder of a road to finish out. Huge game at Tampa Bay this week, a likely loss and then they will project out to 9-10 wins and a battle with Seattle and Arizona for the division, where Seattle and Arizona have an upper hand due to schedule…and the Rams just lost their top O-Lineman for the rest of the season, a huge blow.
I focused a lot on Seattle in the opening, but that is a disservice to the Rams…they are a very good ‘good’ team. Not Super Bowl faves, but solid all the way around – a secretly forming heavy run game + stout defense team we think is a highflyer offense. They are going the Gruden way (which McVay is a disciple of)…smartly schemed, RB-led (a committee approach here), and ball/clock possession wins.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I’m not going to try and say Russell Wilson (22-37 for 248 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs) is bad or anything or ‘sell now’, but I will note his numbers/output has been eroding for a few weeks now. Under 265 yards passing in three of his last 5 games. 9 TDs/7 INTs his past 4 games.
On RW’s next pick thrown this season, it will tie him for his career high INTs thrown in a season (11)…and we got 7 games left to go! Something is getting a touch weird here.
On the positive side, he’s running more to make up for his numbers…46.0 yards rushing per game the past five games.
The pattern is – when he’s facing good teams, he’s losing and throwing more picks…and it seems to be getting worse as we go. He’s also starting to get sacked a lot, and that has a lot to do with it…sacked 11 times the past two games.
-- Wilson’s struggles are taking D.K. Metcalf’s (2-28-0/4) numbers down with him. Two 2-catch games in his last 4 for Metcalf. Two games under 30 yards receiving for Metcalf…how is that even possible?
Four targets in this game, as Jalen Ramsey shut him down…but really there were a few occasions DKM was open and Wilson just missed him. A 50+ yard TD with DKM running a yard+ ahead of Ramsey down the sidelines and the ball was offline and incomplete.
I’m buying Metcalf if anyone is selling.
More perplexing to me is Tyler Lockett (5-66-0/9). His season has gone from great to little blip/bump in the road, to now he’s a WR3-4 week-to-week.
His PPR scoring in games since Week 4…
One mammoth game…and a bunch of WR3-4 games otherwise.
It’s hard to bench Lockett, because that’s when he’ll pop for a monster game…but he’s been killing you more than helping four of the last 5 games…as Wilson is fading, so is Lockett.
-- This is the game Cam Akers (10-38-0) became the starter for the Rams. He won’t officially start the games yet, but this is where Sean McVay revealed his cards/heart…and he showed us his heart on his sleeve this game.
But note that ‘the main guy’ at RB for the Rams is mostly meaningless. It’s a fantasy-death RBBC trio.
Darrell Henderson (7-28-1, 1-5-0/1) started, and looked great for 1.5 quarters…but then, as it seems every game lately, he’s done after putting in a good 1+ quarter of work and then punches out on the timeclock and is watching the other guys pick up where he left off.
Only, this game was a new twist of game flow with the LAR RBs: Akers didn’t just come in for some sprinkled in carries as the game wore on. No, he was in on the 3rd-play of the game, and he pretty much carried the 2nd-4th quarters. Malcolm Brown (6-33-2, 2-18-0/2) sprinkled in near the goal line and 3rd-downs.
Essentially, Henderson and Akers are splitting 1st and 2nd downs and Brown is the 3rd-down back. Akers is more ‘the guy’, but they all share the backfield like a hippie commune. It’s fantasy death.
-- Alex Collins (11-43-1, 1-4-0/2) was out of football for a year+, no one in the NFL wanted him, and he got signed in desperation a few weeks ago…and after two solid DeeJay Dallas (2-8-0, 2-23-0/3) weeks, Dallas was ditched and Collins became the starter out of nowhere…and got treated better than Dallas…Homer…Henderson…Brown…or Akers.
That’s why the Rams' situation is fantasy death.
Collins looked really solid/fine in his reemergence.
As soon as Carlos Hyde or Chris Carson can play, Collins will be ditched. More likely Hyde Week 11 is ‘the guy’.
As soon as Chris Carson can play, then Hyde will be a backup for heavy Carson.
I have no idea what Rashaad Penny is doing in the meantime. He is back running and cutting, nearing a return to REALLY make this confusing…if Carson goes back down again.
-- Best looking WR on the Rams this game, and it’s a growing trend…Josh Reynolds (8-94-0/10). He’s outscoring Tyler Lockett most weeks now the past 4-5 weeks.
I’m not joking – Reynolds looks REALLY good, smooth. He benefits from less attention in coverage but note that he is going to take targets away from Woods-Kupp ahead, in some small-medium way. He’s playing too well not to see looks. He’s still just a WR3-4 flyer in the LAR pecking order.
5.3 catches, 63.3 yards, 0.33 TDs per game the past three games.
-- Two IDPs to point out…
SEA SAF D.J. Reed (10 tackles, 1 TFL) has started the last two games, played three total games this season, and is averaging 7.3 tackles, 0.67 PDs, 0.33 TFLs in those three games. He has relegated Ryan Neal out of the picture. Neal was hot with IDP numbers prior to Reed popping.
LAR CB Darious Williams (1 tackle, 2 INTs, 3 PDs) was the MVP of this game. Two interceptions, a third he took back for a pick-six but it got called back. He now has 4 INTs on the season and is averaging 1.1 PDs per game. His coverage numbers on completion percentage allowed (52.6%) and QB rating allowed at him (42.3) are getting to Pro Bowl level.
If you wondered why Russell Wilson looked so bad here…look no further than the Ramsey-Williams CB-duo, emerging as one of the best in the business.
The Rams are #3 in pass defense (yds per game allowed). They are #1 in least amount of pass TDs allowed (9) this season.
The Rams-DST is getting hot, and if anyone dropped them because of ‘vs. SEA’ last week or drops this week for fear of Tom Brady…they are too good to ignore Weeks 12-15.
Snap Counts of Interest:
56 = Woods
56 = JReyn
37 = Kupp
13 = Van J
29 = M Brown
23 = DHendo
18 = Akers
32 = A Collins
22 = Dallas
07 = Homer