2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 11 Game Analysis: Chiefs 35, Raiders 31
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The mainstream storyline from this game was: the Raiders played a good/admirable game, and had the Chiefs down, but Patrick Mahomes made magic at the end and pulled out a win we all thought KC would retaliate on LV…everyone walks away loving KC, as they did walking in.
I walked away with a different take…
Everyone assumed KC would come into this game, blow out the Raiders, and gain vengeance for Las Vegas daring to beat/upset them earlier in the year. Had KC won this game like 40+ to 14, then that assumption going into the game would have held true in reality/outcome.
That’s not what happened.
Instead, the ‘supposed’ (by the masses and media) inferior Raiders jumped on KC right away…a 7-0 lead after the first drive. KC tied it, as they do…Vegas came right back with a TD to take the lead. KC tied it up after that, as they do…and then Vegas hit a field goal to go into halftime with a 17-14 lead.
After a half, there was no blowout…but more importantly, the Raiders not playing in fear of the big, bad Chiefs. For the second time in a row they came out firing, not trying to run heavy and hide from Mahomes – they decided to go toe-to-toe.
After the half, in the 3rd-quarter, KC stole the lead back 21-17…Las Vegas answered to go up 24-21. The Chiefs answered that with 5 minutes left…28-24 KC. Just hold the Raiders on the next possession and KC wins. We all assumed they would. Nope. Raiders go right down the field and score a TD to take a 31-28 lead with 1:43 left.
Yes, that’s too much time left for Mahomes…but consider the Raiders whacked KC a few weeks ago. And they just went punch for punch with KC for 58+ minutes, to this point. If the Chiefs fumbled a snap or had a tipped pass pick…the Raiders would have swept the Chiefs in 2020. Mahomes led the comeback, and the Raiders lost and everyone goes home thinking what they already thought on KC and LV.
Everyone in the NFL, and among the fans and analysts are in fear/have huge respect for KC. You know who doesn’t? The Raiders. You know who is going to give KC fits for years in upcoming seasons – the Raiders. Don’t be surprised if the future power of the AFC West is Las Vegas. Jon Gruden is doing a masterful job of NFL coaching and motivating. He has built something and it’s still in progress with Mike Mayock at GM. The Raiders are going to be a future power in the years to come…and they might give a glimpse of it this season once they get a wild card.
The Raiders are now (6-4)…losses to high-end teams, mostly – KC, TB, BUF (and a loss to NE). They have a favorable schedule to the finish, which should get them to 10 wins, possibly 11. They are going to be an AFC wild card because they should land at least 10 wins this season.
The Chiefs aren’t as good as we all think…and I have a funny feeling they are going to get beat up the Bucs this week. I initially picked the Chiefs -3.0 over TB, because I don’t trust TB…but now I’m getting worried that KC’s 2020 is beating a bunch of bad teams and losing to LV, almost twice, and beating a good Buffalo team that was weather-hampered – that they may not be battle-tested like Tampa Bay, that TB will have the chip on their shoulder in this one that KC is not used to facing. KC is likely to get to 13-14 wins…and we’ll see if that’s good enough to get past the Steelers for the #1 seed. It might not be.
What if KC is a #2 seed and faces Las Vegas in Round One? There might not be a repeat title for KC this season.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The chronicles of the KC backfield…
Clyde Edwards Helaire (14-69-2, 1-8-0/2) is the clear #1…there’s no more debating that with Le’Veon. However, he is losing a few touches to Le’Veon Bell…and more importantly, he is nowhere to be found in the hurry up offense before the half/clock winding down or in the final drive hurry up at the end. The hurry up is Darrell Williams’ (3-22-0/3) time.
CEH is just a garden variety lead back seeing 13-16 touches, limited PPR work, and you hope he scores a TD because he’s likely not getting anywhere near 100+ yards rushing in a game. 10 games played, so far, and 8 games under 70 yards rushing for CEH.
Le’Veon Bell (7-25-1, 1-11-0/1) is washed up. Strictly a handcuff for CEH, and he would probably split with Darrell Williams 50/50 if CEH did go down. Bell looks like he has aged 10 years since arriving to KC…perhaps, I just didn’t notice it before.
Will KC go with CEH as their clear lead in the future, or is this 13-16 touch a game guy/hoping for a TD going to be a forever thing? The answer to that is huge for Dynasty consideration.
Were 1st-round rookie draft picks wasted on CEH and Jon Taylor? Perhaps.
It could be the new era of the devaluation of RB talent.
Talent doesn’t matter, situation/coach/depth chart means way more. James Robinson might be the #3 back for KC or LV, for example…but in Jacksonville he’s a god, somehow (there’s a reason JAX is 1-9).
-- Speaking of devaluation… The Raiders’ WRs.
It’s Nelson Agholor (6-88-1/9) as the only WR who matters. He leads the way with 3-5 targets usually, but more than that in big/tough games where they need to throw more. Agholor had 9 targets here and the other WRs all combined for 6 targets.
Is Bryan Edwards (1-1-0/2) dead because of this? Maybe. Maybe not.
Agholor is a free agent and I doubt LV will make a big investment if he commands dollars in free agency (and he probably will). The door will open to Edwards again next season. For what it is worth, watching him run routes in his limited playing time…I can see some magic waiting to happen. I just don’t think it will until 2021.
I’m not clutching Edwards with my dying breath…there’s WR inflation/WR opportunity everywhere for the future. But I am not giving up on the fact that he’s one of the best WR prospects from this class. He just hasn’t had his time yet.
-- 2020 season to date numbers for two KC WRs…
26 rec., 34 targets, 411 yards, 3 TDs = Mecole Hardman
27 rec., 38 targets, 264 yards, 2 TDs = Demarcus Robinson
Why do people still believe in Hardman? He might have a blip if Tyreek goes down, but that’s a big maybe. It didn’t happen last year, but for one blip.
Henry Ruggs (1-5-0/1) take a good look at your potential future.
-- Tyreek Hill uptick…
3.7 rec. (6.3 targets), 64.0 yards, 0.67 TDs per game = Weeks 1-6 (the #18 WR in PPR PPG)
7.5 rec. (12.0 targets), 92.0 yards, 1.5 TDs per game = Weeks 7-11 (the #2 WR in PPR PPG)
Some of you are wondering how your previously-thought-to-be dying fantasy team is suddenly winning a bunch of games and swinging back into the playoffs…this might be one reason. Sometimes, the timing of results happens the way we DON’T want it to.
Then we panic.
Then we want to give up on fantasy.
Then we trade off players for picks in Dynasty for some magical future fix.
Sometimes, you gotta stay the course. Many are finding out the virtue of FF-patience with the right players. You could hold down Tyreek for long.
-- LV SAF Jonathan Abram (10 tackles) is the…
Biggest hitter in the NFL.
The most dangerous hitter in the NFL…like he’s going to seriously hurt someone.
He’s the biggest jerk, on the field…he’s drawing penalties all over for stupid, unnecessary hits.
He has 10 tackles in a game in two of his last 3 games.
-- Harrison Butker (0/0 FG, 5/5 XP) has no FG attempts in two of his last 3 games.
The KC offense is so efficient that Butker is losing out on FG attempts. Plenty of XPs, no FGs. That might not be good going into the FF-playoffs if he is your kicker.
-- One important note that came up in the last Video Q&A…
I’m guessing your league is like most I see…all the QBs are being hoarded. They need to be – COVID (or other injury) could take your main guy and then you go to waivers and find Mike Glennon is all. You need two QBs in fantasy, as I’ve preached for years…but eased up on it to start this year, but went right back into it early on – because I saw the supply run on toilet paper/QBs in the pandemic.
Maybe you have Mahomes, and you passed on Herbert or whatever early on off waivers because you weren’t worried. Matt Stafford was going to be good enough.
Well, he hasn’t been.
As a Mahomes owner, who built the team around him…are comfortable with your Plan B ahead if he goes down?
Let me throw out this idea – you could just go with Matt Moore (hero fill-in last year), but that’s assuming he’s the ‘handcuff’. Moore is on the practice squad, currently, as probably a roster saving maneuver (so as not to carry 3 QBs). Chad Henne is the rostered backup, but Moore was the option they did last year. So, it’s an idea to grab Mahomes’s handcuff -- but then are we really sure it’s Moore or Henne, in a crisis…is the issue.
The answer to that, I really do not know. But I mentioned it Thursday and just wanted to kick it around a little more.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
44 = Jacobs
15 = Booker
44 = Agholor
32 = Ruggs
20 = Renfrow
09 = Bryan Edwards
40 = CEH
20 = Le’Veon
20 = Darr Williams