2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 11 Game Analysis: Football Team 20, Bengals 9
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This game was sad for the Bengals for multiple reasons. Obviously, the Joe Burrow injury situation…devastating. But hidden by that major event…the Bengals were handling Washington and were well on their way to a win and people bailing on the F-Team. Instead, Burrow is taken out…and Washington is in the NFC East title hunt. It shouldn’t have been.
The Bengals led 9-7 at halftime…their first five offensive series were all drives down to the red zone or goal line area, all scoring opportunities – but several fluky things happened (a fumble, missed FGs) and caused Cincy to settle for 9 points. They were knocking on the door of having scored 21+ points before the half…but instead it was just 9.
Once Ryan Finley came in, all the final wind was knocked out the Bengals’ sails…and transferred it to Washington, who then ran over Cincy. Had the injury never happened, I believe Cincy would have put 20-25+ points on F-Team and would have won this game easily. Instead, the reverse happened.
With the loss, Cincinnati falls to (2-7-1)…losing several games they coulda/shoulda won, including this one. With better coaching/team management this could’ve been a .500 team scrapping for the playoffs behind Burrow. Now, they will lose out and have to worry about how long Burrow is really out.
Washington luckily jumps to (3-7) and is firmly in the bizarre race for the NFC East. If they beat Dallas Week 12/THU…they are technically in 1st-place until the Sunday games are played out. I think they’ll lose to Dallas and their season will slip away to 4-5 wins tops, BUT I’m not ruling out they beat Dallas and make a run at ‘first team to 6 wins, wins the NFC East’ prize.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The Joe Burrow (22-34 for 203 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) injury has me taking out my fictitious red pen and slashing through all the Bengals’ related redraft fantasy numbers. Everything is poisoned. It even hurts Dynasty outlooks a little bit on Burrow and related players.
There is no more debate over Herbert vs. Burrow, for Dynasty, in the short term.
Here’s a list of the things affected by this Burrow loss…
1) The Bengals now have arguably the single worst offense in the NFL…which means a great play for your opposing DSTs.
This really aids Miami-DST Week 13. Makes Dallas-DST viable Week 14. It puts Houston-DST on the board come the all-important Week 16.
2) Ryan Finley (3-10 for 30 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) is OK…a ‘D+’ grade QB. He might get better with time, but he’s had no real time to get better. He’s a backup paid little attention to and not groomed, now thrown into playing with a terrible O-Line and weak backfield and mostly slower, technically savvy WRs. Having pro/savvy WRs requires a tight window thrower…that won’t be Finley, he hasn’t enough time with them or the O-Line protection to make it hum. All you had to do was watch the 1st-half of this game with Burrow as a magician, and the 2nd-half with Finley crushed every other play.
3) The RB-duo of Gio Bernard (9-18-0, 4-37-0/5) and Samaje Perine (5-19-0, 1-2-0/2) were already not doing great, now it will be worse – hard-pressed to find TDs to help their FF scoring.
Gio might see some extra pass attempts to be Flex viable in PPR.
If Joe Mixon returns, he’s mostly dead in this too.
4) Tyler Boyd (9-85-0/11) and Tee Higgins (3-26-0/10) go from WR1.5s to WR3s. Higgins really hurt because his lack of speed doesn’t help Finley to make great use of him in the timing passing game. Burrow-Higgins was magic…Finley-Higgins is going to be a mess, potentially.
5) A.J. Green (4-41-1/9) is not a help, ever, in 2020 anyway…so, he’s a WR4 still.
6) Auden Tate’s (1-5-0/2) rise is shot down until 2021, when Burrow returns.
7) Take down Randy Bullock’s (1/3 FG, 0/1 XP) numbers too. He was doing well, but no Burrow…and note he missed two FGs and an XP in this game on top of everything else.
-- When will Burrow return? He has more than a garden variety ACL tear. It’s ACL, MCL, and other structural. He could miss all the 2021 preseason and be limited in returning…and you don’t rush a golden goose like this.
Not only is the redraft picture bleak…so too is the Dynasty valuations going to take a hit on Higgins, etc. What if he loses a half or full 2021 season with Burrow out? Not to mention Boyd-Mixon, etc.
Dark times for everything Cincinnati.
Not a bad time for your rebuilding FF team to trade for Burrow, as an investment, and just have him as a luxury item. He’s going to be one of the best in the game, potentially. He already kinda was.
-- Alex Smith (17-25 for 166 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) is not one of the best QBs in the game. He limped by another opponent here…he’s about one step above Ryan Finley damage to the surrounding items for FF.
There are only two winners with Alex Smith…
1) When WSH is winning, Antonio Gibson (16-94-1, 1-0-0/2) will be an RB1.
2) When WSH is losing, J.D. McKissic (6-43-0, 3-26-0/4) will be a PPR RB1.
-- I thought this was a perfect spot for Cam Sims (2-20-0/2) to make more noise against a weak Cincy secondary…but he got all of two targets.
Steven Sims (3-13-1/3) was the Sims to have…and that wasn’t great either.
If you’re trying to work McLaurin-Thomas-Sims I and II for fantasy…why? You’re trying to get numbers from one of the three worst passing games in the NFL with 25-50% of the action going to go to J.D. McKissic depending.
This was a perfect opponent to throw on, and they could hardly put numbers up against them. Sell it all. Avoid.
-- Two IDP notes…
1) WSH Rookie DE James Smith-Williams (2 tackles, 0.5 sacks,2 QB hits) caught my attention during the college All-Star circuit work. He, at times, looks like a 1st-round pick level pass rusher…but he usually is inconsistent in the end.
He made the Washington roster, and is playing a few more snaps each week and got 2 QB hits in here. A long way to go to viability, but just note he’s not-nothing for deep IDP.
2) WSH SAF Kamren Curl (9 tackles) has started the last three games and averaged 9.7 tackles, 1.33 QB hits, 0.67 TFLs, 0.67 sacks per game in that span. He’s working great for IDP. I don’t see the ‘wow’ on tape, but he’s working ‘on paper’.
-- You need to find better than the Washington-DST.
They look sexy…holding Cincy to 9 points, and getting 4 sacks – but all the sacks were on Finley. Burrow was mowing through them every drive, just unlucky most every time with missed field goals, fumbles at the goal line, etc. The prior week, the Detroit offense that got shutout by Carolina…they mowed through Washington.
The Washington-DST has promise but is an operating fraud currently. However, I could use them Week 12 at Dallas with some hope…because of the Dallas O-Line, but I wouldn’t think it a slam dunk. After Week 12…you need to run from the Washington-DST.
Snap Counts of Interest:
57 = McLaurin
52 = Cam Sims
20 = Steven Sims
16 = I Wright
33 = Gibson
32 = McKissic
37 = Gio
31 = Perine