2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 11 Game Analysis: Jaguars 27, Steelers 3
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The score of this game speaks for itself. The Jaguars are terrible from top-to-bottom and have a growing injured reserve list. The Steelers are undefeated. The only thing weird about the 27-3 score was…why wasn’t more like 40+ to 3? The Steelers played like they knew they were going to win. They had their foot halfway down on the pedal and coasted to a victory.
The Steelers are now (10-0) and are possibly getting a break to go undefeated this whole season – considering all the COVID issues for this week’s game vs. Baltimore, which was one of two real tests for the Steelers remaining. That game is either going to get cancelled or they will face the Ravens without Lamar Jackson, among others, playing. Assuming they play this week, we project the Steelers to finish (14-2), with (15-1) obtainable…and possibly get the #1 seed in the AFC.
The Jaguars are now (1-9) and are the worst team in the NFL…batting for that spot with the Burrow-less Bengals. Jacksonville is trying to lose, I am convinced of that (more on why in a moment)…and they will go (1-15) and have a shot at the #1 pick/Trevor Lawrence. The Jets hold all the cards to get the #1 pick, but I think the Jets will win a game…but the Jets have the tiebreaker edge it appears (strength of schedule). The Jets need to win two games and the Jags need to lose out to be sure for Jacksonville to get the #1 pick.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- You know the Jags are tanking because they announced Mike Glennon would start over Jake Luton (16-37 for 151 yards, 0 TDs/4 INTs) Week 12.
What was Luton’s crime? Almost winning his last two games prior to this but struggling against, arguably, the top ranked defense in the NFL? If you were running the Jaguars, and the NFL Draft order didn’t matter in decisions, you would start Luton the rest of the season (assuming Minshew out) to see what you had. You would have absolutely no interest in Glennon playing. Luton, for his part, has shown he has some skills. It’s not like he has been terrible in his three starts…just this one, but there was a good reason (the Steelers). So, starting Luton this week makes sense…right?
Nope. The Jags were looking for a reason to make a change, to get worse, and Luton/the Steelers defense gave them one.
What happens to the Jags under Glennon?
Everything declines. It’s an offense that goes from bad to worse. Glennon has cement shoes for escapability in the pocket, and the Jaguars cannot protect well as it is. Glennon is a QB that would’ve been desired 10-15 years ago. Tall. Decent skills. Runs the playbook. He would have been a mediocre QB in 2010, but he’s downright awful in the new era of quick passing and moving around. He’s a dinosaur.
The change to Glennon doesn’t help James Robinson (17-73-0, 2-21-0/2) because defenses can focus on him at will.
It doesn’t D.J. Chark (4-41-0/8) much because Glennon won’t have time or the arm/quick release to get it to him well. However, if Glennon has time…he’s not a bad downfield passer. He’s so likely top be under duress that you can only hope Glennon blindly lofts one-on-one bombs to Chark, and DJC can make something out of one or two of them.
Everything was already bad with the Jags…now it’s worse/random.
-- The Steelers’ WR report…
Diontae Johnson (12-111-0/16) is now CLEARLY the volume target for Ben. He’s like his poor man’s Davante Adams connection (without the mass TDs). Diontae is the #5 PPR PPG WR since Week 9.
If you look at only the games that Diontae has played 50%+ of the game in (7 games) this season, he has averaged: 6.9 rec., 77.0 yards, 0.57 TDs per game…18.02 PPR PPG – that pace would make him the #9 PPR WR for the season. The Jimmy Smith/Baltimore shutdown event away from being top 5 for the season.
Diontae is Ben’s volume guy, but Chase Claypool (4-59-1/8) is his money man. Ben is taking several deep shots per game to CC, on top of normal type targeting.
Since Week 5, Claypool is the #7 PPR PPG WR in fantasy, and the #4 in non-PPR…a hair behind D.K. Metcalf.
I hate the matchup with the Ravens for both WRs if Jimmy Smith is active, but as the Ravens lose players with COVID and if Smith is just out on his injury…it could be some bomb’s away on Baltimore with Diontae and Claypool.
-- James Conner (13-89-0, 3-10-0/3) isn’t great, but I can tell you this…
Bennie Snell (7-15-1) looks terrible.
Anthony McFarland (3-3-0) can’t get past the line of scrimmage without going down.
I am looking for the heir to free agent Conner…but I don’t see one here, yet.
-- Rookie CB Chris Claybrooks (10 tackles) has been forced into action with all the DB injury decimation for the Jags. He’s not ready for this, and he’s going to get picked on…but that means he should get decent tackle totals for being around the ball/WRs catching it on him constantly.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
41 = J Robinson
13 = Ogunbowale
04 = Ozigbo
52 = Conner
10 = Snell
05 = McFarland