2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 12 Game Analysis: Bills 27, Chargers 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
What a weird game. The Bills let the Chargers hang in this game, and the Fighting Anthony Lynn’s would not accept the gift from Buffalo and just lost in a sad way.
The Bills turned the ball over 3 times, 2 of them on fumbles. The Bills had 9 penalties (to 5) called against them. They were pretty well handling the Chargers but kept letting LAC hang around due to the mistakes…but in the end, the Bills just muscled the Chargers to sleep for the 10-point victory.
The Anthony Lynn highlight reel/classic moment of the week, his bad coaching gem – with under a minute remaining, the Chargers down by 10 and facing a 4th & 27…they throw a Hail Mary, it connects down to the 2-yard line. The Chargers had no timeouts left so they raced down the field to run the next play. 1st & goal from the two…no timeouts left…down by 10…the Chargers race to the line of scrimmage and then inexplicably run up the middle, it gets stuffed and the clock burns and chaos/panic ensues. You have to be a special kind of moron to call a running play at that point…but ‘here’s your sign’.
Needing two scores with less than 0:30 remaining after the Hail Mary, the Chargers ran it, threw it away, and ran it again (QB sneak) to no avail…and ball game. At one point in there, the kicking team was coming onto the field for a field goal (to then go onside kick after to play the clock)…but then they came back off the field to run a play that did nothing. The clock just ran out…a 10-point loss for LAC.
Anthony Lynn is still employed. It’s unbelievable.
The Chargers fall to (3-8)…one more loss and my 7.5 ‘under’ win total bet is home free! If Anthony Lynn wins five in-a-row to end the season, I will quit football analysis. I just gave it the ‘kiss of death’.
Anyone have a job for a former failed football analyst in 2021? I’m good with numbers and my weakness is ‘I care too much’ about doing a good job. And, just note…I’m probably going to wear sweats to the interview…it’s all I own/need anymore.
The Bills are (8-3), a BS Hail Mary/Murray away from being (9-2) and thus one of the top teams in the NFL, by record. The Bills should finish with 11-12 wins and an AFC East title, and their clinching game might be at New England on a Monday Night Week 16. The Bills might be a #3 seed, but possibly a #4 seed if the Titans (who beat them earlier this season) get hot to the finish.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Battle of QBs that I have loved this year… Both played well, but both caught bad breaks here and there to keep their FF scoring down.
Josh Allen (18-24 for 157 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 9-32-1) got knocked out of the game for a few plays on a deep drive (a hit to the knee took him out for a few plays), and Matt Barkley came in to flop and they had to settle for a field goal. Could’ve been an Allen TD drive. Buffalo also ran all over LAC (172 yards rushing total), who lost another linebacker in-game…smart thing to do…taking the ball away from Allen through the air more than usual.
Justin Herbert (31-52 for 316 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 2-0-0) lost a couple goal line TD shots to fluky things, which happens from time-to-time. Including him trying to goal line QB sneak to end the game, but he got stuffed – it would have been a meaningless-to-the-game-result play but would’ve been +6 for Herbert. Overall, he looked fine…better than Allen, honestly…and I mean that in that they are both great/elite QBs right now. And both better than Kyler Murray (I’m starting this drum beat up again) as passers.
I was not happy with the heavy screen pass game all to returning Austin Ekeler (14-44-0, 11-85-0/16) but after re-watching this I understand it a bit more now.
Here’s what you need to know on why LAC was a little stimied in their passing game here, and it’s important for FF interpretations/projections ahead…
1) The Buffalo Bills pass defense is getting its groove back.
The Bills’ defense had several injuries early in the season and were getting thrown on by everyone. Week 5, things started turning around…they’ve squashed most opposing offense’s passing games their last 7 games – including holding Herbert down here (a 50+ yard Hail Mary pushed his numbers over 300+ yards), and holding Mahomes to 225 yards (in bad weather) Week 6. Only Russell Wilson rolled yards up against them lately, BUT that’s a game Buffalo got up so big in that Seattle just threw every play to try to make a game of it.
The top pass defense in 2018 and 2019…it’s starting to peek its head back up in 2020 now.
2) Further evidence of this…
Keenan Allen (4-40-1/10) has been a monster since Herbert took over…nigh unstoppable. Except, Tre’Davious White stopped him here. Allen’s 4 catches were all miracle/tight window throws and catches. It was a grind to get 4 for 40 out of Allen.
Mike Williams (3-26-0/5) was taken out of this game as well.
3) Justin Herbert had a 7-game streak with 2 or more TD passes in-a-row, and then just one TD pass here.
The Buffalo Bills defense is back.
At SF Week 13 might be pretty good for the Bills-DST.
Week 15 at Denver is for sure good. As is Week 16 at NE.
4) Thus, the Austin Ekeler 16 target event…it was actually a smart move by Anthony Lynn. Wait, what did I just type.
Well, he still lost. So…
-- Ekeler is back, so Kalen Ballage (DNP) is probably dead for fantasy upon his return, but you almost have to hold and see what his role will be…or if Ekeler gets hurt again.
I have a feeling Ballage’s owners will be dropping him after Week 13, but we’ll see…
-- Gabriel Davis (3-79-1/4) had a solid FF week with John Brown out…but just 4 targets and his TD catch was off a Cole Beasley TD pass/trick play. Not a sign of an uprising.
-- Devin Singletary (11-82-0, 3-20-0/3) really looked good here, but his problem is not talent…it’s touches. He’s splitting with Moss, and then Josh Allen takes rushing TDs.
In 2019 and 2020 to date, rushing TDs comparison:
15 = Josh Allen
03 = Singletary
-- Two IDPs to point out…
1) BUF LB A.J. Klein (14 tackles, 3 TFLs, 1.5 sacks,1 PD) is smoking hot right now. Klein is averaging 10.0 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 0.67 PDs, 2.3 QB hits per game the past three games.
Since Week 9, he is the #1 IDP LB in FF on a PPG basis…and it’s not even close (Darius Leonard #2).
2) LAC LB Nick Vigil (8 tackles, 1 PD, 1 FF) got to play more when Denzel Perryman got hurt. If Vigil is going to start for a week or two ahead…he’s a really talented player. He could get 6+ tackles a game the next few weeks.
Snap Counts of Interest:
37 = Moss
25 = Singletary
60 = Ekeler
19 = J Kelley
06 = Pope