2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 12 Game Analysis: Browns 27, Jaguars 25
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Facing a Jaguars team who benched it’s QB for their 3rd-string, ancient QB (Glennon), and with half their defense on I.R. -- what should have been an easy Cleveland win was really a loss that the Browns survived in the end and escaped with a 2-point win.
The Jaguars took the lead with 11+ minutes left in the 3rd-quarter, but the Browns took it back and held it the rest of the way. Up 27-19, the Jags scored to make it 27-25 and lined up to go for a two-pointer to tie it up and failed. The Brown held the ball from there/ran out the clock for the win. The Jags lost by two…missing a field goal and blowing two different 2-point conversions in the game.
The Jaguars should’ve won and Mike Glennon arguably outplayed Baker Mayfield…that’s all you need to know about this game, this Browns team.
Cleveland has to be the worst (8-3) team in the history of professional football. They’re likely to finish (9-7) and then hope to make the wild card. If they can beat Tennessee Week 13…they are very likely a wild card/10-win team. I don’t think they’ll beat Tennessee or make the playoffs in the end. If there's any justice in the world, the Browns will not make the playoffs.
Jacksonville almost ruined their ‘tank plan’ by accidentally winning this game. But they found a way to lose, 10 losses in a row, which got their GM fired this week (2-4 years overdue). Jacksonville should finish (1-15) and has to hope the Jets lose twice, in order for the Jags to snag that #1 pick. Likely, they will be drafting #2 overall behind a winless Jets team.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Mike Glennon (20-35 for 225 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) drew the start and played a very solid game. The protection held up for him/his lack of foot speed never factored into this event negatively. Glennon is a solid enough QB prospect – a QB from a gone-by era…tall, statue-esque in the pocket, deep ball thrower. The Browns barely laid a finger on him – no sacks, just 2 QB hits.
It was a mild defensive embarrassment for this supposed playoff team. We do have to allow for Cleveland missing the two best players on their team (Garrett, Ward) and not having its starting ILB and losing its main safety in-game. Still, you can’t let Mike Glennon, behind this Jags O-Line without D.J. Chark, push you around.
This version of Mike Glennon isn’t leading a team to a Super Bowl, but it isn’t embarrassing itself. Keep him protected and he’s a decent, experienced QB.
What’s shocking to me is that Gardner Minshew is back from his thumb injury…and Glennon is getting another start. For what purpose? Who did Minshew piss off? Doug Marrone, I assume. How Doug Marrone is still employed is beyond me – but, if you want to lose games…you need a coach that’s going to help you lose games. Check, and check…and thus Glennon for another week. Marrone/Jacksonville is (3-16) in their last 19 games.
The teams ahead on the JAX schedule are going to pressure Glennon and make this look uglier – MIN, TEN, BAL, CHI, IND.
-- But Glennon looked better/more sound than Baker Mayfield (19-29 for 258 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) in this game. Glennon played a steady ‘C’ grade football game, all game. Baker’s performance was like charting a water bug’s movement all day…he was all over the place with some ‘A’ throws followed by ‘D’ and ‘F’ throws.
In a game Baker should’ve dominated, with Jacksonville missing so many defensive players -- he didn’t…he looked more like what you thought Glennon would at times. Other times, Baker made money throws. Baker is making this look too complicated. Sometimes he looks great and you start to have hope, then the next series you’re like ‘Man, he’s too small for the NFL’.
-- Baker was wearing out Jarvis Landry (8-143-1/11) for the first time ever, which is neat but this was a game where everyone was open all over and it should’ve been a field day…instead Baker was forcing it to Landry like he was his crutch to get by on.
I’ve never seen Baker + Landry be this heavy, productive…I’m going to assume it’s a one off. Landry had 1 TD in his last 15 games with Baker, now he has 2 TDs in 16 games. This is not what a WR1 looks like. Not on tape, not in the number trends. I don’t trust that there will be a follow up event to this.
-- The Browns are Nick Chubb (19-144-1, 3-32-0/3) ‘is the offense’ now. In this game, for the first time going back to the 2019 season when the pairing got into high gear, we saw the first shift away from a 50/50-ish Chubb-Hunt rotation.
Instead of a 50-50, where you don’t know who the lead guy is, per se…now it’s starting to become Chubb is the 60/40, 65/35 lead. At least, it’s starting to feel that way this game. One game does not a trend make, but for as well as Chubb has been playing…you have to be concerned if you own Hunt. It may just be a blip, but Chubb is working so much better than Hunt right now (and that wasn’t the obvious case earlier in the season) that the smart move for Cleveland is to ride the best horse right now.
Chubb had more catches in this game than he’d had all season combined prior.
I’ve started taking down Hunt touch counts and raising up Chubb’s in the projections.
-- The top WR for the Jags with D.J. Chark out was not Keelan Cole 3-44-0/6) or Laviska Shenault (3-31-0/4)…it was #4 WR Collin Johnson (4-96-1/8). Glennon aired it out to him several times for a nice connection or attempted downfield connection. If Chark is out this week, Johnson could be a WR3/Flex option this week.
Johnson is 6’6” and is working kinda like Chris Conley or Chark out there…the medium-deep, tall receiver option that presents themselves as a nice look for the QB. Johnson is slower of footspeed, so if he starts drawing top coverage…he’s in some trouble, but he’s a solid WR otherwise.
-- JAX UDFA rookie CB Luc Barcoo (4 tackles, 1 TFL) was one of our highest rated CB prospects for 2020, and with all the Jags’ injuries, he got a full start this game and didn’t play too badly stepping up to a bigger role. He had trouble with Landry some, but had moments halting Landry too.
Barcoo is not a great IDP prospect, per se…more one to watch to see if he impacts the game for opposing WRs.
Snap Counts of Interest:
61 = Cole
59 = Shenault
52 = Collin Johnson
03 = Trey Quinn
41 = Chubb
28 = Hunt
03 = D’E Johnson