2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 12 Game Analysis: Packers 41, Bears 25
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Packers were super-efficient on offense and moved the ball at will, and the Bears were terrible on both sides of the ball. That’s the way most of their games have gone in 2020, and this was no different. End of game analysis. I mean, the score was 41-10 heading into the 4th-quarter. What else is there to say?
Green Bay is now (8-3)…with a schedule that can allow them to finish (13-3), but (12-4) is probably the right call. Could be (11-5). Either way, they win the NFC North…and are trying to catch the Saints (whom they’ve already beaten) to get to the #1 seed…which ‘at’ Green Bay or ‘at’ New Orleans is a HUGE difference for all playoff teams involved ahead.
The Bears fall to (5-6) but are still in the playoff hunt…and have a schedule that could sneak them in as a wild card at (8-8). We see them going (8-8) and losing out to MIN or SF for the last playoff spot in the end. In or out of the playoffs probably determines Matt Nagy’s employment status for 2021.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Mitch Trubisky (26-46 for 246 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs) didn’t play as terribly as you might think. He definitely had some throws into coverage (for picks) that were ugly. But when Tom Brady does that all day on Sunday, it’s ‘Bruce Arians is a bad fit for Tom’ festival of excuses. When Mitch takes a couple (weak) shots, and they don’t work – it’s because he sucks, and everyone knew this all along.
I thought Mitch played a little better than normal here (for 2020). He had a bit more confidence and aggressiveness with his throws. He was passive and terrible early in the season, but better here.
First series, Bears drive right down the field…Mitch completes a pass for a TD to Cole Kmet, who turns to the endzone to get in and has the ball knocked out and ruled incomplete. Next play, high point pass to Allen Robinson who catches it in the end zone for a TD, lands in the end zone with a defender fighting him on it, but then crashes to the ground and the ball comes out…incomplete. How is this Trubisky’s fault?
Soon after, Bears driving again, 3rd & 7…Mitch completes a pass for a 1st-down conversion. Wait, penalty…no play, now 3rd & 17. He then gets sacked, fumbles, scooped and score…and it was about over then.
Mitch had some good stuff taken away from him that wasn’t his fault.
Mitch then threw some garbage time to have a decent FF game. Trubisky wasn’t horrible, and now faces a bad Lions defense Week 13…a team he consistently rips apart. Could be a good FF week for him and Allen Robinson (8-74-2/13).
-- David Montgomery (11-103-0, 5-40-1/6) got sprung through a wide-open hole on the 2nd offensive play of the game for Chicago…and got a 57-yard run booked. He didn’t do much else the rest of the game. His TD catch was total garbage time at the very end.
Dynasty owners…this is your chance to move him – a 100+ yard game, and a receiving TD! Why…he’s the greatest!!
Redraft owners…I guess you ride this because he’s one of like 4-5 RBs that gets all the touches no matter how hard he sucks.
-- Jamaal Williams (17-73-1, 0-0-0/0) might be a better play than David Montgomery, honestly.
Since Week 4, David Montgomery is the #12 RB in PPR PPG (5 or more games played). Jamaal is close behind at #16.
Since Week 7, Jamaal is the #11 PPR RB in fantasy…Montgomery #14.
Aaron Jones #15.
-- Allen Lazard (4-23-1/6) is still doing his ‘bit player’ in the shadow of Davante thing since returning from his core surgery. He’s a Davante Adams handcuff, is all, right now.
-- Bears or Packers-DST ahead?
The Bears defense is not bad, but overrated. Facing Detroit in the Chicago cold is pretty decent Week 13. Weeks 14-15 with HOU-MIN, not as excited.
The Packers have a better defense than analysts think, but it’s erratic. Week 13 v. PHI is a great spot, in the cold facing Wentz with the yips and no O-Line. Weeks 14-15 with DET-CAR are ‘meh’.
For the season, in FF scoring per game:
The Packers-DST is #18.
The Bears-DST #19.
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Snaps Counts of Interest:
38 = A Jones
33 = Jamaal
63 = Davante
56 = MVS (and not a target)
38 = St Brown
33 = Lazard
58 = Montgomery
09 = CPatt