2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 12 Game Analysis: Seahawks 23, Eagles 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I feel like there is at least one game every week I say this on, but we’re here…so, let’s do this: That was maybe the worst football game I’ve ever watched. At a minimum, that was the worst offensive display I’ve seen in a long, long time…at least the worst display since Denver played on Sunday.
You saw it, and if you didn’t…don’t bother to watch. Here’s the summary: Carson Wentz has the yips…he can’t complete the most basic of passes anymore (until the game is out of hand and he’s dumping off passes vs. prevent)…it was sad to watch him spiral on national TV (again). Seattle just moved out of the way and let Wentz fall on his face, while they just threw every pass to D.K. Metcalf and no one on Philly tried to help stop it. It was 23-17 final, but that’s with a garbage time special/TD with 0:12 left. It was really much, much worse than the score showed.
Seattle cruises to (8-3) in a week that saw both the Rams and Cardinals lose. The NFC West is going to Seattle, and possibly the #1 seed with it. Seattle’s defense is rising, and they have Russell Wilson…so they’re as good as any team in the NFC now. Add to that the easy schedule ahead and we should see a (12-4) Seattle walkaway with the NFC West and have a shot to get past New Orleans for the #1 seed.
Philadelphia in this game, this season…just…wow.
We all make fun of ‘someone has to win the NFC (L)East’…but what does it say if you finish in last place in that division? The Eagles are actually still in this…if they can get a surprise win over at GB or v. NO, they can get to 5-6 wins and 6 wins gets them the title but 5 wins might since NYG is going to Colt McCoy and the Washington schedule ahead is not great either.
What has happened to Philly?
1) Carson Wentz seriously has the yips…like a baseball player with mental performance issues. He’s so in his head about throwing the ball that he’s frozen/late on passes with indecision and double-pumping and tap-tap-tapping the ball way too much before a throw…it’s sad to watch. I’ve never been a fan, but he’s better than this…he’s just in a funk.
2) Doug Pederson should’ve benched him at the half, because letting Wentz try and ‘play through it’ is only making it worse. But Pederson will never bench Wentz, so people should stop asking about it.
I think Pederson is playing out an internal war and is trying to get fired -- all at the same time. He obviously hates the GM, who likely took Jalen Hurts without Pederson’s approval/desire…so, Pederson isn’t going to give GM Howie Roseman the satisfaction. Between the GM and owner (and the owner is 99% of the time lunch BFF’s with the GM), they’ve likely turned on Pederson…so now Pederson is a dead man walking at his job. The GM HAS to blame this on the coach with the owner, or the blame goes to the GM.
Pederson wants to leave, and they want him gone. Pederson wants to be fired, so he can get out…because he’ll be hired somewhere else quickly. So, Pederson is not going to make ownership/management desired changes because he (a) doesn’t want to, and (b) if he’s fired…it’s what he wants. Good for his psyche and bank account. He’ll get paid in full upon firing, as he signs a big deal to coach wherever next…he’ll double dip and escape Philly all at the same time. Plus, the Eagles CAP situation for 2021 is so awful that Pederson doesn’t want to be here to swirl down the drain with it for another year.
There is no change coming at QB unless Pederson is fired in-season, which wouldn’t shock me if it happens due to public pressure…but I think the Eagles’ ownership/management wants Pederson to stay for the rest of the season.
Honestly, the Eagles are going nowhere even if they win the NFC East…so, management might as well let Pederson and Wentz run into a brick wall, don’t win the NFC East, and the HC and QB get blamed for all this. The Eagles are probably the worst planned/salary cap team going into 2021…they have a giant mess to deal with ahead, so winning the NFC East at 6-9-1 or 5-8-1, losing in the playoffs…it does nothing for them now or later. They can’t have some reason NOT to fire Pederson pop up (like ‘winning the division, or then maybe somehow winning a playoff game)…so, firing him now would make some sense. But also, their best chance to lose (which is better for the big picture) is to keep letting Pederson and Wentz hang themselves on national TV weekly – so Pederson will likely not be fired because he’s a useful tool/patsy in more losses for better draft pick position.
Management can then fire everyone after the season ends, find a new coach, hope springs eternal and the fans follow the team, as they do, and buy season tickets regardless.
All I know is – fire up your opposing DST against this Eagles squad right now until Wentz finds himself again…if he even can.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I’m 90%+ certain Carson Wentz (25-45 for 215 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 5-42-0) will remain as the starter for Doug Pederson the rest of the season. If there was the slightest of chance that Pederson sensed Wentz was dying and that a move to Jalen Hurts (1-1 for 6 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) would have been the right things to do…he would have played Hurts more than 2 snaps in this game (and played him more for last few weeks).
The fact that rumors/words leaked that Hurts would get more snaps/opportunities this week…and then he got literally one real play and then out all the game – it’s a message sent by Pederson.
As long as Wentz is in the WRs are dead for fantasy, until Wentz gets over his yips…so Reagor-Fulgham have no real value in redraft now.
I’d love to be in FF-ahead on Hurts for a run as a great mobile QB opportunity, but unless Wentz gets hurt or Pederson is fired…it’s not happening in 2020 (until the season is officially ‘over’ for Philly, which it may not be until Week 17…if even then).
-- There was one thing working with Wentz…Dallas Goedert (7-75-1/10). And it’s been growing for a few weeks now.
I’m back to ‘all the way the hell in’ on Dallas Goedert as the next great NFL and fantasy TE…with one pause… I don’t know what affects Jalen Hurts’ offense, which is going to be like Lamar Jackson’s or more so Taysom Hill’s, will be on the tight end.
All I know is…Goedert looks the best I’ve seen him in a while. He’s over his injury, and his movements are smooth like an elite TE. You will see him rise in redraft rankings and skyrocket on our Dynasty stash rankings.
If you want to acquire Goedert in Dynasty, for the future, best to let Wentz deal him a 3-33-0/6 game next week, or whatever week it happens and then shoot in after him. Hard to make a deal off a stat line like this game, but people may want off anything Philly…so, maybe a deal can be had reasonably. But the better opportunity might be in a week or so (if trading is still open).
Goedert is the better-than-Gronk ‘next Gronk’…but without a prime Tom Brady to work with, so we have to be cautiously optimistic. He’s just been so buried in Philly for years (again, another reason Pederson needs to go) we all kinda forgot about him because he isn’t touching the ball on the regular. Now, he is.
…as soon as Zach Ertz returns, Pederson/Wentz will lean that way and…that’s maybe your window to buy lower.
-- Not much to say about the Seattle offense in this game. Russell Wilson completed 22 passes for 230 yards and 77% of the yards and nearly 50% of the completions went to D.K. Metcalf (10-177-0/13).
The lesson learned here is: no one besides DKM matters in the passing game (as it should be).
My actual Seattle offensive notes…
1) I’ve been talking about Russ ‘not cooking’ for weeks, but now others are starting to realize it…
The first few weeks of 2020 season, Wilson was #1-2-3 in FF-output. Then he started to glide to #5 range midseason…and since Week 8, he’s the #8 QB in fantasy PPG…with Kirk Cousins about to pass him (in that stretch). Russ is a QB1, but not a top five QB1 in this new run game + defense Seattle approach.
2) I’ve been trying to sound an alert that Tyler Lockett’s (3-23-0/4) decline the past several weeks was a ‘canary in the coal mine’ warning that Russ was slipping (for FF). Basically, Lockett is a WR4 unless facing Arizona…and they have no more games scheduled with the Cardinals.
3) The tight ends don’t matter in the passing game…
My ‘watch out for Will Dissly’ (0-0-0/0) alerts ended up a zero. When I’m wrong on this type of thing, it’s usually because it’s a week early. So, we’ll all drop him…and he’ll be 3-40-1 next week and we’ll all be piling back in. Hard to trust him after this first non-Olsen result has been dealt. And the passing game is declining in general.
Jacob Hollister (2-11-0/5) played less snaps but got all the meager pass targets.
Colby Parkinson (0-0-0/0) didn’t see any work but did play 11 snaps. He could be the star of the group…in the future…not now.
-- Chris Carson (8-41-1, 2-18-0/2) got back to work and was solid, looked fine. Seattle kept him fresh with a Carson-Hyde mix -- and Seattle was controlling this game, so why push Carson heavy? The schedule ahead may allow Carson to split/stay fresh for the upcoming playoff run.
-- Boston Scott (2-7-0, 5-40-0/60 had some numbers here, but all the passing game stuff was final drive pure, unadulterated garbage time/meaningless stuff. There is no worry about Miles Sanders (6-15-0, 2-7-0/3) being cut into for touches. Seattle’s run defense is good, Philly’s O-Line and QB are not, and everything got shut down.
-- Jumping on Seattle-DST several weeks ago was a call by us that seemed like lunatic rantings…but now you’re grateful you chased it…or pissed you didn’t.
The defense is getting better each week. The Carlos Dunlap (2 tackles, 0.5 sacks) addition is an obvious boost. Rookie Jordyn Brooks (5 tackles, 1 PD) is starting to get more integrated also helps. But the big thing was getting starting CB Shaquill Griffin (4 tackle, 1 PD) back this game. When they get CB Quinton Dunbar back, then it gets even better.
Again, the schedule is really the thing driving this as much as anything.
Facing Colt McCoy, Sam Darnold, Alex Smith the next 3 weeks…your faith in grabbing Seattle several weeks ago, to get ahead on it, per my alerts – it may be the little thing that gets you over the top this season.
-- Everyone is going to get down on the Eagles everything, but we have to note…they played a helluva game here. They were flying to the ball. They fought hard all game and really held Seattle in check…except Darius Slay could not handle D.K. Metcalf. The offense is not helping the defense either.
If the Eagles win one of their next two, and breathe some life into themselves…Week 16 at Dallas might be a spot they might be useful in.
Snap Counts of Interest:
43 = Sanders
26 = B Scott
71 = Goedert
22 = R Rodgers
05 = C Wilson
48 = Dissly
37 = Hollister
11 = Parkinson
41 = Hyde
25 = Carson