2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 13 Game Analysis: Vikings 27, Jaguars 24 OT
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This was my Survivor pool pick (Minnesota) and I felt great about…until the opening drive the Jacksonville ended with Mike Glennon throwing a pick right to Harrison Smith near the goal line, who butchered the grab, the ball deflected off his hands, changed directions…right into Laviska Shenault’s awaiting arms for a cheap TD.
I felt like we could overcome that lucky start easily, and then the Jags got the ball back and kicked a field goal to go up 9-0…and this wasn’t how this was supposed to go!
Minnesota drove right back and scored on the next series…OK, this is good…then they missed the XP. This wasn’t going to be my day. It’s OK…it’s only 9-6 Jags, we’re fine…then Kirk Cousins threw a pick six and now it was 16-6, and I’m like…this wasn’t meant to be. MIN starting LB Eric Kendricks going down minutes before the game started was a sign that this was going to go bad. I knew it.
Minnesota got the lead back late 3rd-quarter, and I felt better again…19-16 MIN…then a Vikings safety to go up 21-16…then a Minny field goal with 3:50 left to go up 24-16. All we needed was a stop against a Jags team that hasn’t scored a TD since/except the lucky deflection pass TD on the very first series 1st-series. They would have to score a real TD, THEN convert the 2-pointer. No way. It’s in the bag.
Not in the bag…the Jaguars scored a TD and then converted the 2-pointer to tie the game and we went to OT. Back and forth with ineptitude until finally Dan Bailey kicked the chip shot FG with 1:49 left to get the Survivor win in the bank – off we go to Week 14.
Minnesota played a lazy, mediocre game and were the better team but were very lucky to win. They are now (6-6) and firmly in the wild card chase. HUGE game with Tampa Bay Week 14. If they can win it…they look great for the wild card (and sends TB reeling). If they lose, they’ll likely finish (8-8) on the season…and that’s probably good enough for the last wild card spot #7, possibly the #6 seed.
Jacksonville continues on hoping the Jets lose so the Jags can lay claim to the #1 pick/Trevor Lawrence. The FF values of D.J. Chark and Denzel Mims (among others) hang in the balance! Jacksonville will go (1-15) but have to hope the Jets have some horrific weather game to try and actually win from here on in.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Two games in as a starter, and Mike Glennon (28-42 for 280 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs) looks perfectly OK/comfortable as a starter. He’s not good. He wilts under pressure. Keep him protected and he’s plausible/can run the offense.
Glennon’s TD pass was that sure INT deflected/re-routed into a TD pass…or we would have had 0 TDs/3 INTs here, potentially. Gardner Minshew is back and should be starting…but if you want a sign that either the Jags are trying to low key subvert wins, or that Doug Marrone is a terrible head coach – not starting Minshew over Glennon is the sign. Even the players have to realize this, that’s why I want to bet against the Jags every week – they are set up to lose, it’s just will they be within/cover on the point spread.
No serious NFL head coach in their right mind starts Glennon over Minshew…especially in a lost season. You’d start the young player and let them try and work themselves into value for trade or prep for being a backup to your rookie QB, etc. You start Glennon because you’re try to aid and abed getting to the #1 pick.
Same reason you keep Marrone coaching. Jags’ management doesn’t want a spark created by a coaching change and accidentally win a game and blow this. You can’t just be obvious about things, so these are the things you do -- start Glennon/bench Minshew (it’s unfair to Minshew, but they don’t care...it’s dog-eat-dog). To them, getting Trevor Lawrence will change their franchise for a decade – it’s serious business to keep losing.
-- Who is Glennon working in the passing game after his two starts?
D.J. Chark (2-41-0/7) returned from his injury and had all the coverage attention and Glennon avoided or couldn’t connect with him all game – and that’s with a young/struggling CB group with Minnesota. If this doesn’t work against them/the Vikes CBs – what chance is there ahead? DJC is a WR3, but in 2021…he could be the #1 WR in a contract year with Trevor Lawrence.
It’s not Keelan Cole (1-7-0/2) as a Glennon preference…two targets this game, and averaging 2.0 rec., 25.5 yards per game with Glennon in his 2 starts.
Collin Johnson (4-66-0/6) is the main thing working for Glennon. It’s the best of all worlds here. Glennon would have spent the most time all year working the backup group offense with Johnson all season. Johnson is super tall, so Glennon can see him/high point desperation throw to him. And Johnson will be the receiver getting the least coverage game-to-game. Collin is averaging 3.0 rec., 81.0 yards, 0.0 TDs per game with Glennon.
Tyler Eifert (6-45-0/6) has become plausible-ish under Glennon…4.5 rec., 30.5 yards, 0.5 TDs per game with him. That’s TE1 money these days. Hard to bet on…but it’s something. He is playing 60%+ of the game snaps with Glennon these days.
-- Make it three games in-a-row for Kirk Cousins (28-43 for 305 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) with 3 passing TDs in a game. Make it four of his last 5 games with 3 TD passes in a game. Make it five of his last 7 games with 3 TD passes in a game.
Everyone can focus all they want on ‘letting Russ cook’, but since Week 6…
24.17 FF PPG (4pts per TD) = R Wilson
24.15 FF PPG = Cousins (#9 QB overall in PPG in that span)
20.87 FF PPG = Brady
18.33 FF PPG = Big Ben
If you flip that board to 6pts per pass TD…Cousins jumps past Russ…Lamar…Josh Allen to become the #6 FF scorer in PPG since Week 6.
When will we demand Kirk be allowed to not-Cook(Dalvin)?
In this ‘since Week 6’ span…Justin Jefferson (9-121-1/12) is the #3 PPR PPG WR in fantasy, behind only Davante and Tyreek.
-- None of the Vikings’ TE matters for FF, but…
Kyle Rudolph (0-0-0/2) is hurt and may miss Week 14.
Irv Smith has had a groin injury holding him out for weeks now, and he’s likely to be out Week 14 – but if you see Smith getting back in with Rudolph out…that’s some FF hope.
If both Rudolph and Smith are out, Tyler Conklin (1-10-0/1) would be the main pass catching TE…and he’s a decent receiving TE who has been buried in Minnesota for years. He would be a shock fantasy TE for Week 14 with the two starters out.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
64 = Rudolph
59 = Conklin
62 = Chark
49 = Cole
39 = C Johnson
25 = Shenault
08 = Conley