2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Bears 36, Texans 7
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Texans had the ball first and stalled out to a punt on their first drive. The very first play of the game for the Bears on offense, David Montgomery ran off tackle through a wide-open hole and then took off for an 80-yard, virtually untouched, TD…and that was a sign of things to come.
The Bears made it 14-0 mid-2nd-quarter, then the Texans answered to cut the lead to 14-7. A few minutes later, the Bears registered a sack/safety on Deshaun Watson and the dam broke. The Texans wouldn’t score again, and the Bears piled it on.
The Bears were playing loose. There was joy on the sidelines (a big lead helps)…I saw real enthusiasm, confidence with the Bears here. The team is starting to gain some momentum behind the improved play of Mitch Trubisky. It could be a one-week blip, but for a couple weeks now I’ve kinda seen some things with the Bears offense that would give me hope that they might get to the playoffs with help from a win over Minnesota Week 15.
The Bears get a much-needed win to rise to (6-7). If they can beat MIN and JAX the next two weeks, they would be (8-7) heading to a Week 17 with Green Bay (who may not need the game/win to matter for seeding). Eight wins, with a win over Minnesota Week 15, might get Chicago in. Nine wins would get them in for sure. A loss to the Vikings this week pretty much dooms them.
Houston has been playing much better, but this game was in the cold weather (which they haven’t been in all season) and they played like they didn’t want to be there…as the score showed. Houston will wind up with 5-6 wins and a head coaching decision to make in January.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- You do realize Mitch Trubisky (24-33 for 267 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, 3-26-0) is putting up better numbers than half the starting QBs in the NFL this season?
Five full start-to-finish starts this season, 12 TDs/4 INTs, (2.4 TDs/0.8 INTs per game) 1,208 yards (241.6 yards per game.
A 16-game pace of: 38.4 TDs/12.8 INTs, 3,865 yards.
Not bad for a guy who the football media has deemed incompetent.
I would maintain five things about Trubisky’s recent run as returned-to start:
1) He’s the #13 in FF PPG QB (4pts per pass TD) from Weeks 12-14 (his return to starting).
2) He’s had an incredibly easy schedule pushing his rise (GB-DET-HOU).
3) He has an easy schedule ahead…MIN-JAX the next two weeks, in good weather.
4) He still plays like a puss…he won’t run with purpose/authority.
5) Had he had a real coach working with him in his career, he might have been coming into his own right now as a top 10-15 NFL QB. He’s a very gifted (‘tools’) QB whose career is going to come and go as a failure…and I don’t think it had to happen.
Going to Buffalo in 2021 (for a few years under Sean McDermott) to be a backup to Josh Allen might help save his career…maybe.
Hard to confidently bet on him the next two weeks…but it’s been wrong to FF-bet against him when he starts/finishes a game this season. He’s looking very solid, confident the past few games…but I still don’t see any true ‘it’.
Career records as starters (same draft class):
27-20-0 = Trubisky
28-22-0 = Watson
-- I wish Trubisky would throw more to Darnell Mooney (1-5-0, 2-22-1/2), and the fact that he doesn’t shows Trubisky is not a very smart/good QB in general. It’s the easiest throw to an uber-talented get-it-and-go guy, but Trubisky only wants to throw medium deep by choice over working a short game.
Every time Mooney gets a little bubble screen, which has been his most likely target lately, something good happens. Every time Trubisky tries to hit him way down field…they rarely connect. Mooney’s TD in this game was a goal line bubble screen he dodged-ducked-dived into the end zone through several defenders for a TD.
Mooney can be a star…we just don’t know who his QB will be in 2021 to help make it happen or keep it grounded.
-- Trubisky is liking to throw to Cole Kmet (4-41-0/7) now, who is responding well to the increased targets. Seven targets in each of his last two games. 4.5 rec., 39.5 yards, 0.50 TDs per game the last two weeks.
Kmet is playing a ton of snaps the past four weeks…that isn’t changing, and it’s a very comfortable throw for Trubisky right now (what I see re-watching them together).
-- Chad Hansen (7-56-0/7) was Deshaun’s #1 target in this game…almost like a Cooper Kupp-Jared Goff type connection. Hansen has 7 catches in a game, which was a follow up from 5 catches for 101 yards the prior week (his first 2 NFL games of 2020) – aw everyone collectively yawns.
Hansen is a legit NFL WR…like a #3-4-5 WR. Handy/useful/reliable…and he’s showing that instantly upon being forced a chance due to all the WR injuries. He’s produced with Cooks Week 13, and without him Week 14.
Week 15 vs. IND? Perhaps it is plausible for PPR if they get down and are throwing.
Week 16 vs. CIN? Could be pretty good, especially if Cooks is out for any reason.
I’ve maintained for two weeks that Keke Coutee makes sense as a very comfortable throw for Watson…honestly, looking at the tape – Hansen is just as comfortable, if not even more reliable.
-- David Montgomery (11-113-1, 3-42-0/4) had that 80-yard TD run to start the game. Two things about it/his game here…
1) Wide-open hole and then as he was going into the secondary, Justin Reid made the single worst tackle attempt in the NFL in the year 2020. It was so bad that I would’ve benched him right after that (and he’s hurt and on IR now anyway).
You tell me what you see: https://youtu.be/dMOsFBFnKlc
Good on Montgomery for the TD run, but a giant hole and then a safety playing two hand touch…it helps.
2) After that carry, DM was 10 carries for 33 yards…3.3 yards per carry against a bad Houston run defense. Let’s not put Montgomery in the Hall of Fame yet.
-- As Duke Johnson 8-26-0, 2-53-0/2) failed yet again…Buddy Howell (11-42-0, 1-3-0/2) got a deserved shot to carry the ball in the 2nd-half, a quasi-Duke benching. Howell is a limited, try hard RB…and when David Johnson returns this week, Howell will not matter.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
51 = Kmet
29 = J Graham
61 = S Mitchell
53 = Hansen
49 = Coutee
40 = Fells
36 = Akins
15 = Warring
30 = Duke J
23 = Howell