2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Chiefs 33, Dolphins 27
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Stupid, sloppy Kansas City.
Why am I denigrating them? I bet them -7.0 heavy, and they had a 20-point lead in the 4th-quarter and I started counting my money – and then they allowed weak-ass armed Tua to flutter balloons to receivers, while the Chiefs DBs kept dropping pick opportunities. It’s like Tua has a divine intervention on his passes.
I’m mad at Kansas City, for selfish reasons, but I do think they are incredibly sloppy. More on that in a moment.
Let recap this game three steps, just in case you didn’t see it -- but saw the score was close and Patrick Mahomes had a bunch of turnovers.
1) Mahomes was moving the ball normally, early…but had a tipped pass turned INT and a gamble throw gone wrong for another -- and that allowed Miami to get a 10-0 lead into the 2nd-quarter.
2) Kansas City then hit the accelerator and scored the next 30 points…picking apart the great Miami pass defense and making Tua look foolish with their own defense.
3) Then it was all smiles and laughing on the sidelines for KC, as they let Tua float balloons and score two TDs to cut the 20-point lead to 6 points with 4+ minutes left. KC had to sweat a tiny bit but held on to win 33-27. A game they should’ve won by 50+…and they’re lucky they didn’t lose.
Kansas City is not playing the best football in the NFL right now but do have the best record at (12-1). An 8-game win streak is nice, but it has mostly come against weak teams and/or seemed-to-be losses they pulled out in the end. If you added +7 to every opponent’s score against them…they would have lost their last 4 games in a row. They are routinely in one-score games holding on for dear life or coming back late to win lately.
I don’t believe the Chiefs are the best team in football right now. They are on cruise control against bad teams and fringe wild card teams while the Bills and Rams are peaking…getting stronger and battle-tested against better competition every week. I bet the Bills would knock off the Chiefs if they played a playoff game this week. Regardless, KC is going to finish with 14-15 wins, get a #1 seed, but I think they’ll get-got before they reach the Super Bowl…but they should be the Super Bowl favorites because Mahomes can do anything.
Keep in mind…we used to think ‘Aaron Rodgers could do anything’ and he won a Super Bowl and then never again…not even gotten back to it again since he won one 10+ years ago. Hoping the QB makes up for all your general sloppiness is not guaranteed money in the NFL playoffs.
The Dolphins fall to (8-5) and are really a .500 team (with Tua) masquerading as a ‘good’ team. I’m going to recover my stolen money from this game and take NE +2.5 at Miami this week. If Miami loses Week 15, then their season/playoffs are on the line Week 16 at Las Vegas. We still project Miami to wind up (9-7) and just missing the playoffs.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Maybe it’s me, but every time I watch Tua I cannot believe he’s completing passes…and postgame, looking at the box score, I cannot believe he’s got over 200+ yards passing in any game. He had 316 yards passing in this game…and I don’t know where they came from. Every week, it’s the same dink and dunk offense with some blind floaters into coverage…that DBs never catch, but sometimes the Dolphin’s receivers do.
Perhaps, I’m the issue…that I can’t see it right. Or that I’m too jaded on Tua.
It’s not that.
When Tua really had to pass in this game, when they got down in the middle section of the game and were trying to throw back into it…Tua freezes like a deer in the headlights and starts taking on hits/sacks and throwing errant passes. Some of his throws were inexplicable for the quarterback he’s supposed to be. As the prevent defense appeared and the KC players were laughing it up on the sidelines with a 20-point cushion…Tua snuck them back in. ‘Snuck’ being the word. It didn’t look good.
I will be proven right here…there’s something really wrong/off with Tua. The general consensus scouting is way off.
Could Tua improve with time? Sure. But I don’t see it. Not the way he’s playing. The lack of arm strength at all is scary. His blind throws into coverage -- it looks like every bust I’ve ever seen hit the NFL. He simply doesn’t have the tools to be an NFL star QB. He can dink and dunk. He can float balloons. Sam Darnold continues to exist in the NFL…with ‘backers’ still. Like Darnold, Tua can throw a football in a general direction and have things go his way. He has decent vision when he has time…but he’s so frantic-looking much of the time.
All that to say…I wouldn’t want anything tied to Tua now or for the future. The WRs are going to suffer with his inability to throw downfield…and teams will realize he’s lofting passes to the tall TEs and hoping they highpoint it for him, and then the TEs will be random events. Even the RBs are in trouble because this will be a very limited offense overall. Even IF Tua gets more comfortable…he’s a very limited, Sam Darnold-esque QB.
If you play him or anything related against the Pats-D/Belichick Week 15…you’re crazy. But, Tua has been throwing four-leaf clover passes for weeks and it's paying off some…so, maybe you’ll get lucky this week again.
I wouldn’t bet on it.
-- The Tua problem bleeds into the WRs…the third string ones who will start against Stephon Gillmore and JC Jackson Week 15.
We could see a WR trio of the following guys trying to take on the Pats secondary…
#1 WR (Wk15) Lynn Bowden (7-82-0/9)…a WR turned QB who is really an RB now playing WR. He will be Tua’s top look…but will have a talented Jonathan Jones covering him in the slot.
#2 WR (Wk15) Mack Hollins (5-66-0/9), a solid, experienced outside WR…better known for his special team’s ability. He will definitely draw one of Gillmore/Jackson.
#3 WR (Wk15) Antonio Callaway (0-0-0/2), who was out of the league with ‘issues’ last year…playing XFL ball…he’ll have one of Gillmore/Jackson, the one not on Hollins
Good luck against the Patriots secondary, gentlemen.
-- Tua’s #1 look is Mike Gesicki (5-65-2/6). Why? Because Tua likes/can see the tall receiver and can throw a balloon ball up to him and hope he high points it (of which he’s good at) and it’s been working lately. That’s good news.
The bad news is that Gesicki hurt his arm and is likely out Week 15 (and maybe more).
I think Adam Shaheen (2-26-0/3) will take on that role of Gesicki...and Tua will throw to him a bunch out of necessity. Shaheen could get 7-10 targets against NE…and he might land 3-4-5 of them.
Durham Smythe (2-19-0/3) is ‘the starter’ but is more blocker than receiver option like the tall Gesicki, or taller Shaheen.
-- Rounding out the Miami woes… All their RBs stink and are hurt.
DeAndre Washington (13-35-0, 2-17-0/5) did little in this game because defenses aren’t afraid of Tua throwing deep, so the defenses are crept up for the short passing game and stopping the run-desired Miami offense.
Myles Gaskin might miss Week 15 with COVID, we’ll see. Salvon Ahmed is probably too hurt to go Week 15. It could fall on Washington again, but expect similar results as this game.
Keep in mind on all this Miami stuff Week 15 v. NE…if the Patriots beat Miami, then New England will be (7-7)…and will have just dropped Miami to (8-6). If NE wins, the three main teams the Pats will be battling for that last wild card spot will be…Miami (they will have beaten 2x this season), Baltimore (beat them in the rain), and Las Vegas (thumped LV earlier this year).
A (9-7) Patriots team…is a wild card team.
Week 15 means a lot to the Patriots…as they take on a wounded, Tua-led Dolphins team. The Pats-D will be motivated for this one for sure.
-- On the other side of the field in this game, Patrick Mahomes (24-34 for 393 yards, 2 TDs/3 INTs) had some sloppy throws, mostly tipped passes that turned into fortuitous picks that kept Miami in the game early and helped them late. Aside from that, Mahomes was carving up this very stout Miami pass defense.
No worries about Mahomes.
-- Do worry about Clyde Edwards-Helaire (16-32-0, 5-59-0/6)…it was another garbage game from him.
Consider, Miami enters this game having to worry about the KC passing game (as everyone does). They also had their starting ILB (Roberts) out and then top LB Kyle Van Noy was a late scratch. Very fertile ground for CEH to take advantage of…and he responds with 2.0 yards per carry.
My patience/enthusiasm with CEH is running thin…for the future. I thought he was a ‘B’ RB talent going into an ‘A+” situation, but maybe he is a ‘B-C’ grade RB in a ‘B-C’ fantasy situation…that’s not good.
-- Travis Kelce (8-136-1/10) had another great game. Two notes…
1) Someone in NFLdom floated the idea of Kelce for Offensive Player of the Year.
Oh, what would Mahomes ever do without Kelce!!! Deon Yelder would probably be the leading TE in fantasy with Kelce out…or whomever KC rolled out there.
Guess what would happen to Kelce’s numbers if Mahomes wasn’t there?
2) I will not hear any backtalk on my computer models projecting Travis Kelce as a top 12 fantasy asset…a 1st-round worthy option in PPR for 2021.
3) Bonus note…please don’t ask me about selling Kelce on his age for Dynasty this offseason. Why try and time this market? Just enjoy the ride. Stop making your #1 priority in fantasy timing the very peak of every market.
-- After a week off, you can go back to using the Miami-DST for Week 15…vs. Cam. It’s all good.
Week 16 at Las Vegas, probably OK…not awesome.
-- The KC-Miami DST pairing helped get a lot of people to the playoffs and past the 1st-round. The proper finish is probably to use Miami Week 15 v. NE, and then use KC v. ATL Week 16.
The Week 16 game is at home/in the cold for Matt Ryan…and in case you hadn’t noticed – Matt Ryan has gotten about as bad as Carson Wentz.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
59 = Bowden
40 = Hollins
31 = Grant
27 = Parker
22 = Callaway
43 = Gesicki
37 = Shaheen
36 = Smythe
42 = Laird
39 = DWash
46 = CEH
11 = L Bell
05 = Darr Williams