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2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Colts 44, Raiders 27

Date:
December 16, 2020 11:59 PM
December 17, 2020 12:22 AM

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Colts 44, Raiders 27

 

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

 

This game started out as ‘back-and-forth’…a quick 10-0 lead for Indy, but by mid-2nd-quarter it was 14-10 LV. The Colts led 20-14 at the half. It was a ball game.

From there, the Colts started to pull away. The Raiders were down 27-20 to start the 4th-quarter. Still a game. Then the Colts got up 34-20 and the Raiders started stalling, a tipped pass pick six for Indy with 5+ minutes left put it away. The Colts were the better team. The Raiders hung in as long as they could but were simply outmatched.

In response, the Raiders fired their defensive coordinator in Jon Gruden’s anger…odd to happen on a short week (they play TNF).

This loss might be a death blow to the Raiders wild card hopes. The Raiders have lost three of their last 4 (with a lucky last second win vs. the Jets) and are now (7-6) and fading. The Raiders need to win at least two of their final 3 games to get to 9 wins for playoff hopes – and one of those wins MUST be Week 16 v. Miami. We see the Raiders getting to (9-7) but losing to Miami…and the Raiders ending up (8-8) is very much in play as well. It all seems to lean towards the Raiders missing the playoffs. Strange for a team that almost beat KC twice…

Just like it was a deadly loss for LV, this was a big win for Indy…pretty much launches them into the playoffs as either AFC South champs or a wild card. The Colts are likely to win at least 11 games and wind up the AFC South champs.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- I want to say this is the breakout performance for Jonathan Taylor (20-150-2, 2-15-0/2), but I’m not feeling it. I’m not trying to be negative or contrarian for a gimmick. You know I get high and low whenever I see the need and beat the drum on it. I call it as I see it/I write as I sense it…as a guy watching all these games, scouting all these players in college – I’m watching, looking, searching constantly. I’m drunk with watching and analyzing these players.

I’ve imbibed a lot of Jonathan Taylor tape this season…and I’m just not ready to throw a ticker tape parade because of this game. I’m a huge fan, had a great scouting grade on him…I just haven’t seen the ‘it’ factor yet.

Here’s a few of my notes/thoughts on the situation right now…

1) Weird flow to this game…and Frank Reich’s RBBC flow worries me. Taylor exploded out of the gates…like 6-7 touches on the 1st-drive, 62 yards total. Taylor WAS the drive with chunk plays (runs, and a pass play). Then he was out of the game in the red zone as Indy scored the first TD of the game…with Taylor watching from the sidelines.

Then he wasn’t in to start the next drive…he just kinda disappeared sprinkling in and out of the game like he was a random chump. Later in the game he popped a 62-yarder that was quite impressive – he had a wide-open hole and ran through it (which isn’t that impressive, per se…with such an open space to run) but the impressive part was he just hit the accelerator and was gone. He outran 3-4 LBs and DBs in hot pursuit…and hit paydirt/a TD.

Basically, Taylor dominated the first drive…then was gone for a while…then later his a 62-yard homerun ball…that was it. Two drives he mattered, all the other ones not really.

Does Ezekiel Elliott (prior to 2020) or Derrick Henry or Saquon Barkley or Dalvin Cook get treated like this?

2) All that said…this is two bigger games in a row for Taylor output. I think we can have FF confidence Week 15 but doesn’t be totally shocked if he’s rotating like a chump again.

3) On tape, he looks good…but also looks like 25-35 other good RBs I watch all week. I would not say Taylor looks like ‘wow’. I am expecting ‘wow’ from him, and I don’t see it yet. I see really good, promising, maybe ‘wow’ if he stayed in the game to chop away at defenses throughout the game – but I’ve just not seen ‘it’ yet.

Just some examples…Damien Harris looks like a better talent, to me. Darrell Henderson looks better as a runner, to me. Ronald Jones, ditto. Guys (examples) we don’t think would be in Taylor’s class.

It all comes down to ‘usage’ to delineate them.

 

 -- Taylor looks as good as Josh Jacobs (13-49-0, 3-25-0/5) has in the NFL. That’s a good comp…Taylor probably a step better but they’re close enough.

The difference being – Josh Jacobs is worshipped by Jon Gruden. While Frank Reich could probably care less if Taylor was active, and he probably wishes Marlon Mack was still there.

 

 -- Thank you once again, T.Y. Hilton (5-86-2/7)!

I built many 2020 FF teams on Hilton-Marvin Jones-Diontae as ‘WRs taken later’ and Hilton-Marvin died right away to start the season…but now they’re like two top 10-15 WR fantasy producers over the past 4-5 weeks. NOW they are popping…after we all cut them/moved on.

Thanks for nothing.

Hilton and Jones did nothing early on, while Diontae shined. Now Hilton-Jones are rising…and Diontae can’t catch anything.

Isn’t fantasy football fun?

The randomness, the twists and turns – it’s the secret ingredient that makes this game great. Where else can you have this type of day-to-day engagement and constant puzzles to figure out?

Your bizarre thoughts/mental anguish that you can subdue fantasy football sit/starts/trades on every player for every single week without fail, and then when you don’t you throw a temper tantrum – that’s on you. You wish you had T.Y. Hilton now.

You will not win every hand of poker dealt…nor every round of blackjack…nor time every stock purchase you make just right – but you do expect to absolutely predict football results without error every week.

Why do you do this to yourself?

Oh, and T.Y. Hilton is a great start Week 15 vs. Houston with no secondary to speak of.  

What happened when you stayed patient after a slow start to the 2020 season (slow, in part due to TYH and Marvin)? Your teams started popping as we went. We fixed the glitch as we went.

Patience is a virtue.

My scouting is a skill.

Your decisions to act off my scouting and what your eyes see watching games = you’re a good ‘player’ of the game’. But you can’t be perfect. Sometimes injuries and bad matchup weeks/schedules get us all, no matter how great the planning…or a toss-up on player A or B, and you go A and then B goes nuts with scoring on your bench. It’s a hard bucking bronco to break, this thing called fantasy football.

 

 -- I don’t want to talk about Colts TEs, but Jack Doyle (3-44-0/3) led the TE-trio in snaps and targets.

It’s not worth mentioning, really. Except to note every few weeks it’s a different Colts TE perking up. Trey Burton is now dead. Next week, he might score two TDs. Too hard to predict the Colts TE trend.

The best bet on it = don’t even mess with Colts TEs for FF in 2020.

 

 -- Nelson Agholor (5-100-1/9) now has 7 TDs this season. He had 7 TDs total in 2018 and 2019 in 27 games played.

The #36 non-PPR WR in PPG. #28 non-PPR WR in raw total FF points.

Just noting – Bryan Edwards is better than Nelson Agholor, and at worst he’ll get those types of numbers in the future when Agholor is gone or just replaces him in targeting – but I think Edwards is going to best the Agholor 2020 numbers in the years to come.

Have to wait until 2021 to see, hopefully 2021. Don’t lose faith just yet in BEdw…if Agholor can do this, how much better will Edwards do? I’m going to go into some cheap/buy-mode on Edwards in dynasty this offseason.

 

 -- The Colts got a pick six to make the DST scoring look good, but it was heading towards trouble before that. The Colts D has allowed 26 or more points in a game in three of their last 4 games. They are not a shutdown/high-end defense.

Shaky but plausible vs. Houston this week. The Texans were the one team in the Colts’ last four games NOT to have hit 26+ but remember…Houston had 20 points and were on the goal line to hit 27/win that game when a bad center exchange fumble ruined everything. Should have been four games in-a-row allowing 26+ points in a game.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

29 = Jacobs

21 = Richard

19 = Booker

 

45 = Agholor

41 = Ruggs

38 = Renfrow

20 = Bry Edwards

 

34 = J Taylor

22 = Hines

06 = Wilkins



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>