2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Eagles 24, Saints 21
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Joe Burrow debuted, looked fine, and almost upset the Chargers opening day. Never blinked in NFL competition, despite getting hit a thousand times after that.
Justin Herbert debuted Week 2 with 15 minutes pregame notice and almost knocked off KC in OT…he looked like he had played at the pro level for a decade from his first snap.
Jalen Hurts debuts Week 14, without a hitch in his game or mannerisms and knocks off the (then) #1 NFC seeded team who had won their last 9 in a row. Halting his own team’s 4 game losing streak.
This all happening in a COVID year with limited training camp and no preseason games.
Can some NFL analyst please tell me again how complex the NFL is and how rookie QBs need time to adjust to the game speed?
Someone from NFL analyst world also please tell me how great Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, and Dwayne Haskins are – when they look incompetent more and more as their career’s go on?
Additionally, can someone please explain to me why Tua Tagovailoa looks like a scared high school quarterback every Sunday, and yet dares get mentioned in the same breath as Burrow-Herbert…and now Hurts. Hurts is allowed to be in that grouping, Tua is not – but the NFL will lie to you (and themselves) for 2-3 years telling you it’s not so, and they’ll belch about how great Tua looks, and he’s just like Burrow-Herbert.
How is it people scouted Tua as the #1 QB for his draft class two years before entering the NFL? He’s not even in the top three. Nick Saban…why did you switch from Hurts to Tua? You won ‘that’ game, but maybe you were going to win it anyway? Oh, sorry…I can’t criticize Saban or Urban Meyer…Urban Meyer of the ‘Dwayne Haskins is my guy’…as Joe Burrow transfers out because he isn’t ‘the guy’. Wanna reexamine that one too while we are at it?
Is there any time that national media NFL (or CFB) analysis would like to be right about something, anything…just once?
Actually, please don’t…you give my business a pulse…just as you are.
Why all this incessant anti-NFL stuff this week/year? I think it’s important to reinforce the fact that they don’t know what they’re talking about. Maybe we don’t either, but I know they don’t. Their opinions and takes and scouting…it all should be consumed with total skepticism. Honestly, it should be consumed assuming they’re probably wrong…then trying to find out the truth from there. There’s fantasy and handicapping profit in understanding ‘them’ and how wrong they are constantly.
So, with that…
Jalen Hurts, the QB they dismissed for the 2020 NFL Draft, defeated the previously undefeated Taysom Hill, who THEY are still butt-sore that their guy Jameis Winston didn’t start over. Hurts out Taysom Hill’d Taysom Hill…which my Hurts scouting (in general) has been just that – Hurts was/is a better version of what Taysom Hill could be. It’s not an insult to Taysom…it’s just Hurts was raised in the new era of QB play, he’s better groomed for this (but Taysom is really good for the NFL too).
The Eagles got up 17-0 and left the Saints reeling. The Saints gathered themselves up and got back into it in the 2nd-half, closing it to 17-14 Eagles at the end of three quarters. That’s when Jalen Hurts went back to work and led a crucial TD drive to get back to a two-score lead with 6+ minutes left. The Eagles defense held off a late Saints TD and booked a really impressive win.
Believe it or not, the Eagles are back in the NFC East hunt at (4-8-1). The Eagles just have to match Washington’s win total in the end and Philly wins the division because of the tie. Washington has 6 wins now, but they might get stuck there if Dwayne Haskins is the QB the rest of the way. If Alex Smith is back, it might be too tall an order. If the Eagles can get within a game of Washington after the next two games…Week 17 is Washington at Philadelphia. We project the Eagles to finish (7-8-1), and thus NFC East Champs…but (6-9-1) and not winning the division has about as much probability too.
The Saints’ world just crashed down on them. If Doug Pederson would have just gone with Carson Wentz… The Saints fall to (10-3) and give the #1 seed to Green Bay…it’s GB’s to lose now (GB already beat the Saints this season). Now, the Saints host KC Week 15…which means they likely fall to (10-4) and the #1 seed hope really slips away.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Jalen Hurts (17-30 for 167 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 18-106-0) was exactly who I thought he’d be as a player…except I didn’t think he’d be there in his debut game…against white hot Saints defense.
This is who he will be every week, approximately…200 +/- passing yards, 50-100 rushing yards, a passing TD per game, and 10+ rushing TDs per season. Hurts is a much better passer than Lamar Jackson, and is a more physical runner but not as elusive as Lamar. Hurts is also a ‘face of the franchise’ type player…a humble leader, great human being. I don’t believe Lamar is anywhere near Hurts’s class of locker room guy.
Philadelphia…you’ve got your franchise QB for the next decade, congrats! We’ll try and forget you whining all summer about why the Eagles would take THIS QB, wasting a 2nd-round pick.
Other Hurts thoughts…
1) Doug Pederson should be fired for saying, post-game, that he doesn’t know who will be starting the upcoming game. I’m serious. If I were Jeffrey Lurie, I’d quick kiss my half-my-age wife good-bye, tell her I’d be right back, and go down into Pederson’s office and sweep my arm across his desk and knock everything off and tell him to get the hell out of the building.
*On Monday Pederson named Hurts as starter, but Sunday night he said he hadn’t made up his mind.
2) That statement of not naming a starter goes to show Pederson is actively trying to get detached from the franchise and that he never wanted Hurts in the first place. And it shows he is an incompetent or subversive manager, and it should not be allowed to stand.
3) Even worse, I think Pederson waited/relented to start Hurts versus the Saints to try and embarrass Hurts and show that he (and Wentz) were the right duo all along.
If I were an Eagles fan, I would be livid. I like Doug Pederson, but this is treasonous, and I think seals his fate…which is what he wants. If you can bet on such things, bet that Pederson is gone as soon as the Eagles’ season is over.
Doug Pederson doesn’t deserve to have his job saved by ANOTHER backup QB he DIDN’T want saving his ass again (see: Nick Foles…who gave Pederson a career longevity).
-- The Jalen Hurts ‘targets’/surrounding ‘things’ report…
OK, so we know Hurts is good already. We know his style. How did it effect the other players from a fantasy/output scenario? Couple thoughts…
1) Miles Sanders (14-115-2, 4-21-0/5) had a big stat line, but again…minus the one big run it was horrible. But I’m more encouraged here than I expected to be…because Hurts looked very comfortable checking down appropriately to Sanders in the passing game and Hurts is not a TD hog, he will let the RB do some work.
I feared for Sanders’ fantasy output going into this, but now I’m more neutral/OK.
2) Dallas Goedert (4-43-0/6) seemed to be the pitch-and-catch comfortable throw for Hurts. Goedert over all the WRs or Sanders.
And can I say again…Goedert looks amazing. Kelce-Waller…Goedert is my leader in the offseason clubhouse to be the # 3 FF TE hopeful.
3) Jalen Reagor (2-46-0/4) seemed to be the top WR look, but it wasn’t urgent or all that effective. Reagor did miss a 50+ yard bomb…thrown a foot too long and Reagor didn’t go all out for it and hit his hand. It was almost a (3-100-0/4) game that people would have fallen in love with.
At a minimum, that missed bomb connection – another example of how comfortable and accurate Hurts is already. Hurts throws beautiful passes – he put that bomb right on Reagor’s hands in stride from across the field (right to left throw). It’s stunning that these young QBs just walk in and debut and look better than Carson Wentz ever has in his entire career (as just one QB example).
-- Miles Sanders didn’t suffer the same passing game fate Alvin Kamara (11-50-1, 7-44-0/10) did early on with Taysom. However, Taysom seems to have fixed that aspect of his game already…10 targets/7 catches here for AK.
3 catches, 7 yards, 7 targets = Kamara’s first 3 games with Taysom
7 catches, 44 yards, 10 targets = This one game with Taysom.
A great sign for Kamara back to his PPR ways.
-- It’s been a lot of Jalen Hurts talk this whole recap, but the Eagles-DST deserves half the credit along with Hurts.
I thought the Eagles defense was playing well, playing their hearts out during the losing streak…it’s just Carson Wentz and the lack of offense was killing them, and they eventually rolled over in recent games in the 2nd-half. Not here. A solid performance again. Week 16 at Dallas has potential for a DST play…IF the Eagles are still viable for the playoffs. Once Philly is done for the playoffs that group is bailing on Pederson/the season.
-- IDP Note…
PHI DE Josh Sweat (5 tackles, 2.0 sacks) had one of those games…one of those games where you’d swear he’s a top NFL pass rusher. He looks like a video game creation pass rusher, but he’s so hit and miss.
3.0 sacks in his first 4 games…then 1.0 sacks in his next 8 games to start the 2020 season. He’s a very patch/spotty/flashy not consistent pass rush prospect.
If he ever puts it all together…
Sweat has been on our IDP Stash report for three years now…hoping…waiting.
Snap Counts of Interest:
56 = Sanders
15 = Scott
02 = Clement
59 = Goedert
50 = Ertz
47 = Reagor
31 = Jeffery
22 = Watkins
11 = Fulgham
45 = Kamara
20 = Latavius
36 = Cook
18 = JHill
15 = Trautman