2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Football Team 23, 49ers 15
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Washington wins a game without scoring an offensive TD and with 139 yards of total offense. A pick six, a fumble return TD, 4 turnovers by the Washington defense…and every time the 49ers, the better team here, tried to crawl back in it – another turnover occurred at the exact wrong time.
I don’t know that Washington ‘won’ this game as much as the 49ers blew it. Regardless, it wasn’t a gem by either team. A defensive struggle/offensive failure with bad QBs…someone had to win, the team getting the turnovers won.
Washington picks up a HUGE win to get to (5-8). Seven wins can take the NFC East, and now The FTs just need to win two of their next 3 games. Easier said than done. Hosting Seattle Week 15…a likely loss. Hosting Carolina Week 16…could be a win. Week 17 at Philly could be for all the marbles. Washington could lose all three games, especially if Alex Smith is out Week 15 (or longer). We see Washington ending up (6-10) and not winning the NFC East…and that it came down to Week 17 at Philly, where they lose. But there’s definitely a path to them getting to (7-9) and winning the division. It’s not a given yet that Washington has this in the bag.
The 49ers have played the most brutal schedule of any team Weeks 5-14. They’ve sustained a ton of injuries (and lost Deebo this game) all year and then had their schedule bury them…and, yet, they still have wild card life. They have to win out. If they beat (at) Dallas this week, and then win a CRITICAL Week 16 at Arizona (which is possible)…they’d be (7-8) going into Week 17 vs. Seattle. Seven or eight wins could be the #7 seed. Winning out from here puts them in a strong spot for a playoff spot -- but winning (or losing) Week 16 at Arizona is really their season. We see the 49ers stumbling to (7-9) with (8-8) possible if Jimmy G. and Kittle can get back…but even if (7-9), they have some shot of being a #7 seed. This loss to Washington may bite them in a tiebreaker in the end if the FTs get to 7 wins and are in the wild card chase and not a division winner.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- If Alex Smith (8-19 for 57 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT) is out for Washington this week, everything falls…
J.D. McKissic (11-68-0, 2-180-9/4) loses all his PPR juice.
Terry McLaurin (2-24-0/6), you have to play but you’ll probably regret it.
If Dwayne Haskins (7-12 for 51 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) starts -- it’s a boost to the Seattle-DST this week.
The one guy who has been working with either QB is Logan Thomas (6-43-0/7), who is suddenly a top 5 type TE. He is moving and looking like a real top NFL TE now. It looks like a light has come on, or something. Whatever it is – it looks terrific lately.
I think Smith is 60/40 to start this week, but that’s an early guess.
-- There was a QB change about to happen in the 4th-quarter of this game for the 49ers, but Nick Mullens (25-45 for 260 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) led a scoring drive to cut the lead to 8 pts and then C.J. Beathard stopped warming up on the sidelines.
The switch to CJB is close to happening…the leash is getting shorter on Mullens. It doesn’t change SF FF projections much except CJB is a better fantasy scorer, to me, than garbage-time Mullens.
-- I believe Raheem Mostert (14-65-0, 2-5-0/4) will miss this week. If so, Jeff Wilson (11-31-1) becomes the #1 splitting time with (probably) Jerick McKinnon…but maybe Tevin Coleman gets some touches…if he is still alive. Wilson would be in a prime spot for larger than normal touches for an SF RB if Mostert is out.
-- I would project that Antonio Gibson (DNP) will be out again this week with turf toe but the door’s not totally closed on a return.
-- You can tell many FFMers invested in Deebo Samuel (1-9-0)…anytime a WR gets hurt on his first touch and is gone for the game – that’s one of my guys. Everyone else’s WRs go off in a game and then get hurt with 5 minutes left in the game. My guys, 1st-play…done. Parris Campbell. Diontae Johnson 2-3x this year. Deebo here.
Brandon Aiyuk (10-119-0/16) inherits all of those juicy Deebo touches – Mullens was throwing to him like no one else existed in this game. Great set up vs. Dallas’s backup CB group this week.
Richie James (3-33-0/3) might be a sneaky deep roster league flyer for the week with Deebo gone and so much attention going on Aiyuk. Jordan Reed (2-13-0/5) might benefit as well.
-- Washington-DST is the talk of the week with two defensive scores in this game. Defensive scores are sweet, but random. The 49ers put some yards up against the FTs but the turnovers killed them. The fumbles just bounced Washington’s way.
I’m not anti-Washington-DST but I’m not totally convinced this is an elite unit yet…just a great front line and a lot of young players and/or holes everywhere else.
-- Everyone is talking WSH-DST, but the best defense in this game was the 49ers-DST. No offensive TDs allowed. Since they got Richard Sherman back, they really stifled the Rams Week 12. They had Buffalo flustered for a bit, but then yielded to that great offense…no crime in it. Then shutdown Washington here, as a top defense should. It’s a sneaky top 5-10 NFL defense with Sherman-Verrett as their CB-duo.
Week 15 they face the patchwork O-Line of the Dallas Cowboys and Andy Dalton. I like the 49ers-DST a lot here.
Snap Counts of Interest:
74 = Aiyuk
72 = Bourne
26 = R James
01 = Deebo
40 = Mostert
39 = J Wilson
02 = Coleman
00 = McKinnon
59 = Cam Sims
58 = McLaurin
23 = Stv Sims
41 = JD McKissic
30 = Barber