2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: 49ers 31, Jets 13
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I thought the Jets could make a ‘last stand’ here and put up a good showing, in order to fight back at all the mass negativity from this whole organization/franchise/fan base – the Jets play hard on defense and I thought against a wounded 49ers team (who would get more wounded in game) they could put up a fight and try to cover the spread.
The first play of the game was a simple sweep to the right and Raheem Mostert went untouched right through blocking and was off to the races. The game was over right then and there. The Jets scuffled a bit to cut it to 7-3, and it hung there for a little bit, but then the floodgates opened and it was 21-3 SF at the half and eventually 31-6 before a late garbage TD made it 31-13. The score didn’t indicate how bad a beating this was.
The 49ers took care of business, but also lost Nick Bosa, two starting RBs, another D-Lineman, and their QB in the game – and they still cruised to victory with ease. Hard to know how good or in peril the 49ers are because the Jets are not much of a litmus test. Fortunately, the 49ers have a favorable schedule the next few weeks before it turns brutal. The 49ers could be 3-2/4-1 before the schedule turns dark and then they may lose five in-a-row Weeks 6-10 if they are getting more and more banged up, and thus plummet to the bottom of the NFC West. They’ll be lucky to be (5-5) by their Week 11 BYE at this injury rate, more likely they are (4-6). Kyle Shanahan deserves a medal if they get to (6-4+)
The Jets are done. They’ve lost the one thing they had going for them – a salty run defense. They decided to elevate old Alec Ogletree from the practice squad and start him at ILB…and he was the reason for the 80-yard opening TD run, and most every big run/play you could find #52 lollygagging or out of position. I think he was doing what Mark Barron did with the Steelers last year…trying to stay out of plays/contact but make it look like he was trying…and collect some paychecks. He was always late to plays or found a blocker to tie up with. He single handedly killed them. If they don’t cut him by Week 3 gameday, bet against the Jets this week because they are playing 11-on-10 football – and they aren’t good enough to cover that up.
The Jets have a chance to go winless this year, it’s that bad. If they don’t win Week 4 TNF hosting Denver, they will likely start the season (0-9). They can’t win but 2-3 games tops this year. The GM is in the head coach’s pocket, so neither are going anywhere for at least another year.
May I remind the class – this is the Manning’s (Peyton mostly and Eli) fault. Stick to commercials boys, because you know nothing about QBs or head coaches. The Manning’s talked NYG into Daniel Jones…they also talked NYJ into Adam Gase…and Gase hiring is a nuclear bomb to any hope at success. The Manning-based decisions have helped wreck the two NY franchises. Is it a diabolical plot by the Manning’s to destroy NY football? It’s working!!
Enjoy the upcoming years when Peyton Manning is a highly paid TV analyst and then GM for a team.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Jerick McKinnon (3-77-1, 0-0-0/1) had a day, but on just three carries and no catches. He looked cool, but again…Jets #52 Alec Ogletree was there to help on his biggest play – that ridiculous 3rd & 30+ run of 55-yards (untouched ‘til the end).
With Mostert-Coleman down, McKinnon is set to be the lead back Week 3…and possibly Weeks 4-5 as well.
McKinnon looks fine. Not necessarily like his old, amazing self…but still very good/reasonable. I don’t know if the 49ers want to push him too hard if they don’t have to (coming off two years out of football and multiple injuries). Considering they have some winnable games ahead, there will probably be a Jeff Wilson (2-3-0)/McKinnon split coming. The 49ers are comfortable with Wilson. He’s not that great and he’ll be like a 10 +/- carries and 1-4 targets a game projection…and if the game gets out of hand you’ll see some Wilson more than McKinnon – and you’ll see JaMycal Hasty (DNP) getting extended practice time in garbage time.
Raheem Mostert has a MCL sprain and that tends to be a multi-week issue, that he may try to come back to early from and risk being ineffective with. Mostert didn’t get the contract he was looking for from SF, so I suspect he will take as long as he needs until he is 100%. No need for him to rush back…he’s in a kinda contract year. Bad performance on tape won’t help him in a few months.
It will likely be McKinnon/Wilson for two weeks minimum and up to 3-4 weeks max.
If you got McKinnon, it’s not crazy for you to go explore a ‘sell high’. Like higher than you think because people are desperate.
-- Or you could try to FF-invest in the lovely disaster that is the Jets backfield. I thought Miami was messed up in the backfield…at least they have some talent, even if they don’t use it. The Jets have no talent at all.
Frank Gore (21-63-0, 0-0-0/2) is a useless lead back who will be the lead for two more weeks until Le’Veon returns…or longer if Le’Veon is traded.
LaMical Perine (3-17-0) will likely start working a 70/30 split here with Gore and see some PPR work. He might have a minor spike PPR game ahead.
Kalen Ballage (1-5-0, 2-12-0) inexplicably is here, and he might see some extra work in blowouts.
I could see a Le’Veon trade by Week 5 and a three-headed nightmare backfield of Gore-Ballage-Perine the rest of the season.
-- Nick Mullens (8-11 for 71 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) is a capable backup QB. He won’t hurt this offense too badly. He has starter experience. Jimmy G. will probably miss a week and then be back. The 49ers can get by for a week against NYG, you’d think.
-- Six players/receivers to quick comment on from this game (in no particular order)…
1) Brandon Aiyuk (2-21-0/3) made his debut. He didn’t look totally comfortable, a bit nervous, but he looked very fast/quick. In another week or two the 49ers might have Jimmy G. + Aiyuk + Deebo + Kittle all back healthy, and then really have something solid on offense again.
Aiyuk will probably start slowly for FF and continue to rise – but given no Deebo or Kittle, there is room for him to get extra work and make some noise as early as this week.
Aiyuk looks lightning fast and looks like he has added muscle. The 49ers don’t have a high-volume passing game and Aiyuk and Jimmy G. have limited time with each other…could be a choppy 2020 for Aiyuk, but there’s some hope on the talent.
2) Jordan Reed (7-50-2/8) looks like the old Jordan Reed, as I said last week. He took advantage of these terrible Jets linebackers. When George Kittle returns, Reed goes back to a random TE2.
3) Braxton Berrios (6-59-1/8) should already be starting for this team, or some team. He’s the perfect Cole Beasley-type WR…and he was clearly the Jets’ best WR in this game. He could have another nice game Week 3 if Jamison Crowder is out. Like an FF-startable in PPR type of game out of nowhere.
Everything you like about Crowder gets put into Berrios with Crowder gone, and everyone gone.
4) Breshad Perriman (2-12-0/2) is one of the ‘gone’. Likely out for a week or more. I thought he just had a weak game here, but he got hurt and had to leave early.
The note here is – Perriman looked DAMN good in the time he was in. There’s something there when he returns. It’s limited some because of Sam Darnold sucking, but it’s not nothing. Sadly, he has to deal with Darnold…so, his FF-upside is limited.
5) Josh Malone (4-16-0/6, 1-12-0) got extra work when Perriman went down. He’s a decent warm body to fill-in. Not worth a fantasy look.
6) Chris Hogan (6-75-0/8) played capable football, as he does. If the Jets are still down Crowder + Perriman, I’d rather have Berrios than Hogan for a quick start for the week.
-- A quick IDP note… With all the D-Line injuries, Kerry Hyder (8 tackles, 2 solo/6 assist, 1.0 sack, 2 QB hits) played 80% of the snaps and was pretty active. Hyder puts up numbers when he gets a chance. He had 3 tackles and a sack in 40% of the snaps Week 1. He has 3 QB hits already this season…3x the amount Carolina has as a team this season.
A deep one to take note of.
Snap Counts of Interest:
59 = Hogan
46 = Berrios
42 = J Malone
20 = Perriman
37 = Gore
09 = Perine
08 = Ballage
05 = Adams
45 = Bourne
44 = Aiyuk
28 = T Taylor
13 = Sanu
10 = Pettis
52 = Hyder
43 = Kinlaw
34 = Alec Ogletree
17 = Avery Williamson