2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Bears 17, Giants 13
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This game was 17-0 Bears at the half. It looked like what many expected…the Bears are OK, and the Giants are terrible…no big deal. In the second half, the Giants shut out the Bears and came back to within 4 points with chances at the end…but they couldn’t pull through.
This is a story of two bad teams playing a game, and one of them mercifully won. Not much more to say about it top side. The Bears are highly overrated and are going to crash to earth soon and should be 0-2 right now. The Giants are properly rated. But they are trying hard.
A lesson to 2-0/0-2 FF teams out there…Houston is 0-2, Chicago is 2-0. Do their records really represent how good/bad their teams are? Do you think the Bears will have more wins than they Texans in the end? It’s early. Some teams played DET and NYG and others played KC and BAL…the records are not indicative of reality. We need more weeks to play out to find reality.
Oh, and I’m going to reveal a gem at the end (saving it to the end) that you’re not going to want to miss…and be careful how excited you get. Keep it in context.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- What about the Giants backfield now?
First…will Saquon Barkley (4-28-0) get the ‘always injured’ label for 2021 redraft…like David Johnson or Leonard Fournette have had to deal with for years, even if not really true? Nope. Have you seen his quads? The media loves Saquon, so his value will barely change. He might plummet from the #1-2 overall player to the #4-5…oh, the horror.
With him gone, the Giants are set to roll with Dion Lewis (10-20-1, 4-36-0/5). And that makes Lewis an RB2 in PPR, and probably for non-PPR as well. The Giants have a lot of pressure to ‘win now’. Joe Judge wants to book his first win…and Dave Gettleman is on a serious hot seat. The schedule ahead is terrible for NYG/Lewis…SF-LAR-DAL-WAS-PHI-TB-WAS-PHI, some of the top run defenses in the league except for WAS 2x. However, that’s where Lewis has to play a lot…to block and be the rock for the team in a very tough situation.
If NYG was signing Devonta Freeman, they would have done so already…I suspect. Still possible he signs today, but NYG has to see that they have no chance this year and Freeman isn’t changing the game upon arrival either.
The sleeper play in this, but not a radical one, is Wayne Gallman (DNP)…the problem is, Saquon went down and Gallman registered no snaps that I see. It was all Dion Lewis. Gallman had a great camp, was drawing buzz I was keeping tabs on him to be the #2 back…but he was named #3 back and didn’t see any touches in the Saquon-crisis here.
Dion Lewis is ‘the man’ for the foreseeable future – a solid enough RB, getting heavy touches, junk-time PPR work, but against a very tough schedule behind a weak O-Line. Better for PPR than not, but his volume might make up for schedule/O-Line some on rushing. Lewis might get some crazy catch counts in this offense. I’d chase him pretty hard in PPR for those in need, because I don’t know if everyone is that excited about him – but they know he’s in a good spot at the moment, but Devonta visiting is scaring them some.
The Giants may add a back, just not Devonta. Lewis is an ex-Patriot on a team coached by an ex-Patriot…so, Lewis gets special treatment/status. I’d roll with it if I have to. Lewis is in a similar spot as James Robinson, for example – ‘the guy’ behind a weak O-Line. Only Lewis has no challenger for the PPR work like Robinson.
-- I love a buy low on Evan Engram (6-65-0/8) now. The Giants will be throwing a lot and Engram is the security blanket and mismatch opportunity. He’s going to pop and then you’ll be mad you didn’t try to get…if you need help at TE.
-- I’d like to think Darius Slayton (3-33-0/6) is in line for more work/better FF days, but watching him in this game – too much going deep for Slayton while Daniel Jones throws underneath. Slayton is their best WR, and Jones’s fave WR now…but that’s probably WR2 cap at best.
I like Slayton as a buy low off this down week…but buy LOW. Not fair value. Those having WR issues…it’s guys like Slayton (not the biggest names, but in offenses with a lot of passing on game flows, and are talented, AND coming off a down week) that are the cheaper targets to help re-make your WR group if needed. If his owner wants to profess love and treat Slayton like gold, then move on. There’s other/better WRs to pursue for the price.
*Sterling Shepard (2-29-0/4) is already hurt again, so now the shift to Engram-Slayton should be coming on stronger.
-- Allen Robinson (3-33-0/9) is not necessarily on my ‘buy low’ list. This passing game is awful, and people want to dump ARob, but still think he’s a strong WR1…he’s more of a weak WR1.
If I can get ARob as a WR2 valuation, then I’m interested…I still see his owners holding tight. I think he’s a smart get-cheap, but I’m not paying fair value. There’s better WRs to chase than fair value ARob.
…but, if the Nick Foles takeover comes into view, I’m a bit more interested in ARob. The (2-0) start means Foles is still a few weeks away but mark my words…it’s coming.
-- Ryan Nall (1-2-0/1) was sighted!! I just wanted to type that while I could. This is still Montgomery as RB2 backed up by WR Patterson and then Tarik Cohen (5-12-0, 1-15-0/1), who has totally disappeared, after that. Nall is a million light years away from any chance…but he at least got in the game here.
-- I thought Mitch Trubisky (18-28 for 190 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs, 4-16-0) played another shaky/borderline terrible game. You know I have liked Mitch, but I see no development in 2020 and he works in this terrible offense. He’s lucky he’s faced DET-NYG back-to-back is all I can say.
Another gift this week…Atlanta. The clock strikes midnight on Trubisky starting Week 4.
I’d rather have Daniel Jones (25-40 for 241 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 3-21-0) for FF…that’s how down I am on Trubisky. Trubisky is not getting any better, he’s getting worse – he’s a totally scared, over-managed QB. The end is nigh. A wasted opportunity of a career by Matt Nagy.
-- Two IDP notes…
DB Logan Ryan (7 tackles) was a late signee of the Giants and in Week 1 he played 59% of the snaps but played 85% here and had a nice IDP effort. Remember, he was a top IDP DB last year. He’s now on a team that will be on defense a lot…and he’s an ex-Patriot on a team coached by an ex-Patriot. He’s going to be useful for IDP again.
DL Kyler Fackrell (4 tackles, 1 sack, 2 TFLs) had 10.5 sacks for Green Bay in the 2018 season, but just 1.0 in 2019 and was quietly signed by NYG in the offseason. He is not a nobody. He might be NYG’s best pass rusher.
-- OK, the special note…
I was asked by someone last night…”Is there a next Diontae Johnson?” The question stopped me in my tracks for a moment. Great question. I’ve been so focused on celebrating Diontae and trying to make sure everyone was valuing him properly, I hadn’t really thought…OK, great you hit Diontae…whaddya got for me now? Pull another rabbit out of your arse dancing fantasy boy!
‘Diontae’ means a certain type of WR. Slender. Good hands+. But mostly so fast-of-foot off the snap they can get open on anyone…BUT that has to be combined with the intestinal fortitude to work all parts of the field. Jerry Jeudy can get open on anyone off the snap, but then is a piece of garbage over the middle or near any traffic. Diontae is a chip-on-his-shoulder, overlooked grinder…Jeudy is an entitled diva.
Who fits the bill for next Diontae?
One contender I have in mind – Chicago Bears 5th-round 2020 rookie Darnell Mooney.
Let’s look at the quick overview/timeline…
A very good college WR, hidden away at Tulane…somewhat because of a bad passing game/QB situation. Mostly because he didn’t play in the SEC.
Ran a 4.38 40-time at the Combine, as everyone collectively yawned.
Drafted 5th-round and wasn’t fully assumed to make the team.
Impressed in camp (which means little on rookies…everyone impresses). But I couldn’t see him against NFL talent in the preseason to really ‘know’.
Played near as many snaps as Anthony Miller Week 1, in a mild shock to me. Out-snapped Miller Week 2, and scored a TD. The #2 WR on the Chicago Bears is Darnell Mooney…and most people aren’t aware and don’t really care.
You should care.
How much, is difficult to answer. What’s the #2 WR on the Bears worth…especially splitting with Miller to some degree?
Mooney has that ‘Diontae look’ to me, to some degree. Very fast. Sharp cuts. Great hands…is a really a very good WR (I know this from my CFM studies and subsequent scouting report). But Mooney is a rookie…on a weak offense with a revolving QB situation ahead. However, being the #2 WR, being a talent, seeing ARob get all the top coverage – it’s got my FF-interest piqued. But, where did Taylor Gabriel get us the past two years in a similar spot? BUT, Anthony Miller popped late last year because he was ‘there/available’.
I don’t think a Mooney breakout is imminent/next week but he should be on the radar the deeper your redraft rosters go – and deeper Dynasty rosters, now is the time to start seeing if you have a spot to put him in/acquire fairly cheap.
Diontae in Chicago wouldn’t be ‘Diontae’/AB 2.0…because there is no Big Ben, so be careful how excited you get by my hinting. I’m probably quite early to this party and I need to see more of his NFL work, but what I’ve seen so far…I’m really encouraged that he might hit for the future, but also be useful now in some respects actually playing for the Bears already.
If you ask me about picking Mooney up on Video Q&A or whatever…you gotta tell me ‘in place of who?’.
Snap Counts of Interest:
53 = ARob
29 = Wims
26 = Anth Miller
35 = D Montg
21 = Cohen
14 = CPatt
65 = Peppers
65 = Bradberry
64 = J Love
55 = Logan Ryan
29 = Ballentine