2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Chiefs 34, Ravens 20
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Well, finally a good night at a Buffalo Wild Wings game event for me! The company and food are always good, but the last few times I’ve gone for a special event type game with a lot of ‘my guys’ going for FF – it seemed to end in depression on the players. Last time that I went to BWW needing a big Mahomes-Tyreek night, last year…it was the kneecap game…fantasy seasons changed in an instant. So did the mood and the taste of the food.
Not this night. The big Mahomes and good Tyreek and disappointing Lamar, Andrews, Ingram pushed FFM-nation to over 80%+ win rate Week 3…that’s what I’m talking about!! A lot of (0-3s) got cured to (1-2) and right back in it (just like I said, ye of little faith!). A lot of thought-to-be (1-2s) are now (so you say) ‘lucky’ (2-1s).
The sun shines a little brighter on the FFM empire this week.
I would like to thank my local Buffalo Wild Wings for their excellent sports awareness hosting us Monday Night.
So, I go into BWW 10 minutes ahead of kickoff. I sit down. I look up at their 8,000 TVs all over and I see the ESPN MNF pregame on about 15 of them. 7,000+ of the TVs were on a college football game – a Saturday replay. The biggest TV they had in the joint was on mini-truck dirt track racing…I kid you not.
Normally, most all the TVs in this place flip over to whatever ‘the big game’ is at least 5-10 minutes ahead, if they weren’t already there. No big deal, I had a few minutes…but I thought I’d ask anyways…because I live by the rule most everyone hates and/or is terrible at their jobs. It’s this rule that makes me put my car in park at the Drive-thru window at a fast food joint after they hand me my food and open up every single item to make sure they got it all right – and feel like I hit the lottery when it is all correct. So, I sheepishly mention the lack of MNF games showing to the waitress…because I already get the vibe that she isn’t really isn’t into the details based on my first conversation (stoically took my drink order, never asked about an appetizer or food). She assured me that she’ll talk to the manager…but in a way where I’m not sure that was going to happen or matter. I’m sure it will be fine. Surely, I didn’t have to even have to mention it…but good to double check.
You don’t have to guess if the TVs ever changed over.
Our best view ended up the little 24” flat screen we had at the booth, which thankfully was on the game. They don’t ever show that in their commercials – people having a raucous time at BWW for ‘the big game’ spending $50 on food for two and watching the game on an old 24” Dell computer monitor that was high tech in 2010.
We had a fun time regardless. We should’ve gone to a sports bar instead. Our mistake.
I didn’t ask a second time because I was hoping my food wouldn’t be cooked with extra COVID sauce on the wings.
As far as the game itself, you saw it – Chiefs smash. Ravens wilted. The Chiefs are the undisputed best team in football and now people are wondering if Lamar Jackson sucks forever. The power of what people ‘just saw’. So much of fantasy management is how to properly deal with ‘what happened last week’ and knowing what to react to and not overreact to ahead from it. This was a highly viewed game, so Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown are terrible/on sale and you can’t discuss Patrick Mahomes in a deal. That’s how it works.
Last week, some asked me about selling Mahomes/Tyreek because all the teams facing them were going to do what LAC did Week 2…slow it down and take possession away from KC and crush all fantasy teams all year. A week later, no one cares about that anymore. That’s how it works!
For me, the fact that the Chiefs went and destroyed a Baltimore offense that has been a 90% of the recent (2019-20) time a juggernaut – it gave me respect for their defense more than anything. We’ll get to them in the next section.
KC has a next ‘Battle of the Titans’/battle of the top two teams in football game on national TV coming up…KC at MY Buffalo Bills on TNF Week 6. KC is likely headed to a 14-2/13-3 season and got a big feather in their cap for grabbing the eventual #1 seed by beating the Ravens already. KC faces New England this week…not the battle of teams/names we want to believe it is. The Patriots had zero answer for Seattle’s passing game Week 2…so simple deductive reasoning says they’ll have none for KC either.
Baltimore gets a real schedule break the next three weeks – at WAS, CIN, at PHI. I don’t think the -13.0 line is enough for the Ravens to give Washington this week. The Ravens should be (5-1) heading into their Week 7 showdown with the Steelers…another Ravens gut check moment this season (the Steelers). I bet they destroy PIT and then everyone will forget all about this KC drubbing. Losing badly to the Chiefs does not mean you’re a bad football/not great – it just shows KC is better than everyone else, again.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Is Lamar Jackson (15-28 for 97 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 9-83-0) toast? Has he been figured out?
What’s to figure out? He’s NFL-bad when he’s down 10+ points. If you see a game on the schedule ahead where he’s going to be down 10+ points, consider whether you want to play him. I’m not sure he’ll be down in a game that much the rest of the season.
Since Week 7 of 2019 season, here’s how much they’ve won each game by (in order):
3 (SF in a downpour)
(10 wins in a row to end 2019 regular season)
Then this loss to KC.
A 12-game regular-season win streak where they won by an average of 21.7, but they lost to KC this week…so throw all that out the window, now Lamar and the Ravens suck? Really?
Even when Lamar got popped by Tennessee in the playoffs, he went off for fantasy numbers. This was a blip for Lamar. I’d need to see more issues happening to think Lamar is somehow dying.
-- Snap counts at RB for Baltimore this game…
24 = Dobbins
18 = Ingram
13 = Ingram
This snap count doesn’t prove anything potentially, but I’ve been getting the sense from watching the games/rotations and talking to Baltimore contacts – the Ravens are itching to pull the Dobbins trigger. Now, they wouldn’t fully ‘diss’ Ingram at this stage -- but a situation where Ingram ‘starts’ and Dobbins takes 60%+ of the snaps could be coming as soon as Week 4.
Why not? Like the Ravens are so good that they have to defer to Ingram? They lost in the 1st-round of the playoffs. They just lost to KC. It’s not like they just won the Super Bowl, so they don’t want to mess with anything yet overreacting to one game. They have cause to make bold changes now.
-- WR notes…
Marquise Brown (2-13-0/6) is a 5 catches, 50+ yards a game WR and will score 8+ TDs a season type player. Slightly limited upside because Baltimore doesn’t throw as much as other teams. He’ll be fine. He’s a buy low candidate.
Sammy Watkins (7-62-0/8)…must be nice catching passes and immediately falling down so as not to get hit. Nice work if you can get it…three years/$48M signed in 2018. He is getting every dollar of his ridiculous deal too, I can’t believe it. Imagine how good this offense would be if Watkins wasn’t there clogging up space?
Mecole Hardman (4-81-1/6) is trying to be ‘that guy’, but he was nothing for two weeks…but Week 3 he got a TD on TV, so the Mecole hype train is back…for a week. It all makes sense in our minds…’with Mahomes’, ‘Watkins sucks’…but go look at the targets and snaps – how can you buy into that now? It’s a year+ in and he can’t beat out Demarcus Robinson?
Devin Duvernay (2-7-0/3) is better than everyone I just listed above. If the Chiefs had drafted Duvernay, their offense would be heading to another level in coming years…instead, DD is stuck as a backup (for now) in a low-grade passing game. He did have a 93-yard KR TD this…because he’s very good…
-- This Chiefs defense…
Why I am so excited is due to my ‘discovery’ before they played their Week 3 game…now I’m even more excited watching them handle Lamar.
From my Three Things/Five Players Report from Monday after Week 3 Sunday:
Dropped by many because of the Ravens matchup Week 3. After the Ravens game you get a long stretch against a mix of good and weak offenses. No powerhouse matchups until like Week 15…if you consider the Saints a powerhouse (at NO). Also, consider – the Chiefs have good-to-great defensive talent to go with (and an offense that supports them).
Weeks 4-5-6 with Cam-Carr-J.Allen is OK, but then it gets really good Weeks 7-14…
At DEN, NYJ, CAR, BYE, at LV, at TB, DEN, at MIA.
You know what pairing works great with KC…the Chiefs and the Dolphins…
Week 4 = KC v. NE
Week 5 = KC v. LV
Week 6 = MIA at DEN (KC at BUF)
Week 7 = KC at DEN
Week 8 = KC at NYJ
Week 9 = KC v. CAR
Week 10 = MIA v. NYJ (KC bye)
Week 11 = KC at LV
Week 12 = MIA at NYJ (KC at TB)
Week 13 = KC v. DEN
Week 14 = KC at MIA
From Weeks 4-15 you get 11 weeks, and 3 matchups with DEN and 3 with the Jets and 2 with the Raiders…over half of the games are vs. DEN and NYJ. Miami doesn’t have a terrible defense either.
From our Weekly Projections highlights:
The Chiefs defense is ranked...
-- #6 in league in points allowed
-- #11 in yards allowed
-- #5 in sacks
-- #4 in pressure% on the QB
-- #5 in Comp. Pct. allowed
This is a really good defensive unit with a very underrated D-C (Steve Spagnuolo) with the bonus of a dangerous return game.
One apart good defense, one part great schedule. Here's the QBs you'll face with a KC-MIA DST pairing through Week 14: Cam, Carr, Lock, Lock, Darnold, Teddy, Darnold, Carr, Darnold, Lock, Tua.
Snap Counts of Interest:
47 = Snead
46 = Boykin
44 = Mq Brown
07 = Duvernay
65 = Watkins
60 = Tyreek
41 = Dem Robinson
29 = Hardman