2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Titans 31, Vikings 30
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
*TUE 9/29 Video Q&A – Special Time: 7pmET-830pmET*
The Vikings went up 24-12 with 8+ minutes left in the 3rd-quarter and it just felt like it was going to be a Minnesota win…that the (0-2) team would rise up to take down the (2-0) team that had been skating by on some luck to be undefeated. They seemed evenly matched enough and it was a simple game of ‘let’s see who is better’ the side giving the ball to Derrick Henry every play or the side giving the ball to Dalvin Cook every play.
The Derrick Henry side won in the end.
Could’ve gone either way but the Titans just felt like they were playing ‘like winners’ and Minnesota just isn’t playing with any confidence or pizazz. Just the mood of the game or I was just projecting into it…but it seemed Tennessee was not rattled and Minnesota puckered up down the stretch.
The Vikings feel like they need a ‘hard reboot’…just flush the system and rebuild. Cousins and Cook and Thielen and Zimmer are nice, but not nice enough to be a juggernaut. Perhaps Danielle Hunter returns and is an adrenaline shot instead of a reboot, but he might be weeks away and the season is lost by then. Not having the home field advantage anymore really stings the Vikings. Minnesota plays at Houston Week 4 in a game that is going to likely end one team’s season unofficially.
Tennessee is (3-0)…three wins by a combined 6 points. They’ve beaten teams that are a combined (1-8). And lucky to have beaten any of them. The clock is ticking on Tennessee. A three game homestand against PIT-BUF-HOU could expose this team, but if they come out of it (4-2), they’ve got the schedule to win 9-10 games this year.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Let’s get this out of the way first, the main thing I watched from the tape study: Justin Jefferson (7-175-1/9). Is he worthy of the top waiver spot this week…is he a FF wide receiver savior this week/ahead?
No, I don’t think so.
Jefferson is good/solid, he might even be very good…eventually. I just think it’s a bit early/rash to start jumping on his bandwagon and thinking he’s going to carry your wounded warrior WR group right now. If I were to have him/had acquired him this week – I would sell him hot/high as best I could.
It won’t get any better than ‘rookie’ + 100+ yard game + the big game happened last week/fresh in our minds.
Sure, there’s a place for him here – the clear #2 WR where Adam Thielen (3-29-1/5) will get the main coverage, but this is the #27 passing game in the NFL, a new O-C, a stuffy head coach who wants to run every play…and Jefferson is good-not-great, and if he is great it’s not yet.
People are going to go crazy for him this week. The funny part is that in leagues where Allen Lazard is not taken (which is a crime if you let that happen)…Lazard had just as big of a Week 3, plays with a superior offense/QB, and is more experienced and has a #1 WR who takes all the coverage…and Lazard will get half or less the interest. People are going to reach here because they LOVE magical unicorn rookies…especially if they owned them first! Why…it will be so magical and glorious to be the first to plant my flag…
Jefferson is as good as any WR2-3 option out there, but most of them you can get for a lot less today.
-- In this same game, Kalif Raymond (3-118-0/3) had three huge catches and a 100+ yard game, and…yaaaawwwwnnn. Why…he can’t be any good? He can’t be magical or a unicorn because he’s not a rookie…and, ewwww, he wasn’t even drafted. Yuck. Gross. And he didn’t even catch 4 TD passes from Joe Burrow in a college game I watched either, so moving on…
Raymond is a solid rotational #4 WR teams forget about and he just beats them deep for a/one play a week…this game it was three, a first for him.
In other Titans WR news, Corey Davis (5-69-0/6) had another forgettable game.
As soon as A.J. Brown returns, every Titans WR goes back to their normal flow.
-- The normal flow for the Titans passing game includes Jonnu Smith (5-61-0/8). Jonnu is Tannehill’s #2 guy now from what I see…#1 with AJB out, but #2 when he returns – and in a low volume, high efficiency passing game.
Jonnu is a higher-end TE1 talent who will be a low-end TE1 producer for FF/PPR with Brown back. He’ll be stable/solid but limited upside still showing due to the passing game.
-- Darrynton Evans (3-9-0) made his debut. He didn’t flash or show anything, but it was limited touches in his first ever game. Looked below average, but that’s normal for a rookie. I think he’s a ‘C to C+’ type talent…buried behind Derrick Henry. No more, no less…but he would be the guy if Henry went down.
-- The number of emails and questions I got about trading away Derrick Henry (26-119-2, 2-11-0/3) last week was crazy, but expected.
Whenever a player has two weak FF games (especially if Weeks 1-2)…owners panic and the price drops and the urgency to ‘change for the sake of change’ is high. All that goes away now with this 2 TD game.
If you wanted to sell Henry, the time is now…off this type of week. The crazy fantasy thing that destroys FF teams is the weak-minded, fly-by-night ever-changing emotional management of selling low and buying high – last week you would have traded Henry reasonably for whatever. Now, just one week later, Henry is untouchable for you/the price is 5x higher for what you’d want in exchange. All in one week?
The fantasy mind is a fascinating, frightening thing.
That’s why I keep railing and encouraging the (0-3) teams…it’s an easy trap to fall into, an easy (defeated) mindset to adopt and accelerates the downfall of struggling teams. And all you (2-1) and (1-2) teams…you’re a week away/a loss away from potentially falling down the same rabbit hole of illogicalness. You should read all the (0-3) stuff from today as a cautionary tale.
For every 100 people who listen to my patience message, one person will be helped/will take it to heart. I do it for ‘the one’ and have hope for ‘the 99’. Sometimes you need to hear it a thousand times before it clicks in and changes your process. I only know because I deal with this with so many people for so many years now…I’ve been to the future. I know how this movie goes. I was one of those who learned the hard way myself. I know of what I speak.
-- Vikes CB Holton Hill (7 tackles) cannot stop getting 7 tackles in a game! He’s hit 7 total tackles three games in a row now. Which is impressive for a cornerback. Note he’s 6’2”/200+ at CB…he’s like a safety at corner.
Hill is the #15 DB in IDP scoring per game (FPros data). The #5 CB in IDP scoring…one tackle from being #3 among CBs.
Snap Counts of Interest:
61 = Thielen
51 = J Jefferson
22 = Beebe
05 = Bisi J.
55 = Corey Davis
45 = Cam Batson
39 = Humphries
20 = Raymond