2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 4: Game Analysis: Colts 19, Bears 11
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This was one of the worst games I’ve watched in 2020 to-date. It wasn’t a slog because the defenses are so good, although the defenses are good…especially the Colts. It was 33% ‘good defense’ and 67% ‘horrific offense’.
Two glaring problems here…
1) Philip Rivers is ‘shot’…he’s got no gas left in the tank on his arm. I mean, he can still push a 0-8 yards pass out there if it’s wide-open but he’s throwing so slow/low velocity and his mechanics are so slow that defenders are breaking on the ball or he’s just misfiring/miss-timing the routes being run. He has to throw way in anticipation of where the WRs will be and that’s dangerous because he is lacking ‘touch’ with the velocity…and these receivers are not long-time connections he’s used to.
All of Rivers’ passes it seems wobble/no tight spiral. There’s a reason why he has 15 TDs/16 INTs his last 11 games played. Tom Brady is working through this ‘age thing’ and looks solid enough. Rivers looks like toast. Thus, this offense is D.O.A. for the R.O.S.
2) Chicago looked just as pathetic on offense as ever. The beautiful thing about that is – now, finally, people are making the equivocation that if the offense looks the same/as bad with Trubisky, Foles, or Chase Daniel…then maybe the problem isn’t the QB. The problem is what the problem has been all along – Matt Nagy, aided by a GM who has had the worst NFL Drafts and free agency the past two years.
It’s all about to implode in Chicago…they’re thinking playoffs, when really they are all dead and don’t even know it.
Chicago stops playing cupcakes and starts playing mostly real teams ahead and they are going to lose a lot of games coming up. The Bears are a 5-6 win team at best.
The Colts have a very good defense, one of the best in the league and a decent O-Line. They are going to try and play 1930s style football to win games. They are helped by a gift schedule the next three games: CLE-CIN-DET, but none of them are as easy as it seems. We are projecting this Colts team at (8-8) and will reassess if they change from Rivers to Jacoby Brissett (not likely).
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- There’s a fantasy ripple effect of the Philp Rivers (16-29 for 160 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) downfall…
T.Y. Hilton (3-29-0/5) is all but dead. Trade him for whatever you can get. He might have a moment ahead of a lot of dump passes but for all intents and purposes…this can’t work consistently/high-end. Hilton works medium and deep and Rivers can only throw short. Get out while/if you can. He still has some bottom fishing name appeal to throw into a deal for some in rare occasion.
Jonathan Taylor (17-68-0, 1-11-0/1) looks great but is facing stacked lines because defenses see the Rivers issue. You kinda have to ride Taylor hoping you get a Derrick Henry/2019 run of ‘you know it’s coming but you can’t stop anyway’ offense. He also might tick up for receptions because Rivers has to throw to RBs to stay safe.
For some reason, Trey Burton (2-16-0/5) got activated of IR and debuted and was pushed as a receiver they tried to get going. Burton looks like all the life in his legs are gone, so he was never open…and Rivers couldn’t hit a medium route in a tight window to save his life.
The Burton love from Frank Reich means, as I predicted, Mo Alie-Cox (1-13-1/2) is not ‘next Antonio Gates’…but he is the Colts TE to have in non-PPR because he’s tall and Rivers can throw balloons to him and pray. I wouldn’t be surprised if Alie-Cox had 15 catches the rest of the season and 8 of them TDs.
-- Watching Philip Rivers in this game made Nick Foles (26-42 fore 249 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) look like Patrick Mahomes by comparison. Still, Foles is just a slightly better version of Rivers…it’s not their era, they belong in an era gone by, and their arms are fading so they are not able to do what they used to…but they still think they can.
I’ll give Foles the grace of another week…because this may be as much about the Colts defense and the lack of a Bears running game than anything else.
-- Of course, Foles wore out Allen Robinson (7-101-1/10) but his next favorite throw was Darnell Mooney (5-52-0/9). Mooney is trying to creep back into the WR3 conversation. The more attention on ARob allows Mooney to be a slick slot/alternative/Diontae-lite happening. Again, it’s a lot to ask of a rookie and this passing game is spotty at best…so be careful, but in Dynasty…Mooney may be getting ready to make a spurt where he’s not cheap to acquire anymore.
-- You thought Jimmy Graham (4-33-0/5) was going to be so awesome after his two TDs Week 3 and the switch to Foles? How many times will you see a spotty TE have a multi-TD game, which gaslights you and you pile in, and then there’s no follow up because it was a one-time event/matchup/game plan?
We’ve seen big weeks from Higbee and Alie-Cox and Graham and Sample…and not followed up on. Our eyes turn to Robert Tonyan and Eric Ebron for the next in line…
-- If Darius Leonard (1 tackle) has to miss any time, Anthony Walker (11 tackles) would be a great start in his place for IDP.
-- The Colts-DST is still #1 with a bullet for FF scoring (FPros scoring). That should hop up with CLE-CIN-BYE-DET the next four weeks, but problems loom after that Weeks 9-11: BAL-TEN-GB. The Colts-D may be good enough to soldier through it.
-- The Bears-DST needs to carry their team too, and they have a solid unit…but TB-CAR-LAR-NO-TEN-MIN-BYE-GB through Week 12…not great any week for FF.
-- Because of the Colts’ failings on offense, but great defense…we’re getting a lot of Colts with the ball but cannot score TDs – so, rookie PK Ricardo Blankenship (4/4 FGs, 1/1 XP) is tearing it up for fantasy. He’s 12/14 on FGs this season, kicking in a dome a lot, and on a failing offense/good defense = it’s a good recipe to continue working with for FF.
He’s the #2 PK in FF per game scoring right now.
Snap Counts of Interest:
55 = ARob
46 = Mooney
43 = Miller
11 = CPatt
10 = Wims
07 = Ginn
45 = Doyle
36 = Burton
33 = Alie-Cox
33 = Taylor
25 = Hines
12 = Wilkins