2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 4: Game Analysis: Seahawks 31, Dolphins 23
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Miami made this a game, when most thought it would be a blowout. They were going toe-to-toe with Seattle, but in the end…Ryan Fitzpatrick/Miami doesn’t have enough offensive firepower to score in the red zone and then you keep giving Russell Wilson chances…Seattle’s going to win.
Miami had 9 offensive drives in this game. Pick and a punt on the first two drives. The final 7 drives had 5 FGs, a TD, a pick near the end zone. If Miami were not so pathetic at RB and WR, they might have scored 50 points this game. Every time I’d see Myles Gaskin get a carry near the goal line -- I just shook my head. How is that Miami’s best RB plan?
Miami played tough. They had chances. It was a 2-point game with 5+ left, and then the dam broke.
Miami plays two games ahead that they could win both or lose both and the season be defined -- @SF, @DEN the next two weeks. If Miami can at least split those games, get to (2-4)…looking down the road, they have 2 games with NYJ and 1 with the Bengals still on the schedule…that’s potentially 5 wins (NYJ 2x, CIN + if 2-4 after Week 6). Leaving them with the question of whether they can get to 9 wins with the other 7 other games that are not NYJ or CIN to play after Week 6…but it’s a much tougher schedule. We see Miami between 6-8 wins. When they get back Byron Jones this week, it’s a whole new situation – a solid defense and piss-poor offense.
Seattle is (4-0) and the Cardinals, Rams, nor 49ers impress me much. Seattle might cruise to the NFC West crown, but the Seahawks have not been great either…but spotted with a (4-0) start puts them in a great position to rule the NFC West. Seattle projects as a 10+ win team for sure (as long as Wilson is there).
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- How long ‘til Tua?
The way Herbert-Burrow are playing…it might get forced soon. The longer it takes, the more worried I’d be that they know Tua is NOT ready…not the skills or the readiness of Herbert-Burrow.
What will change with Tua for FF?
No clue. No one has seen him work with this team under fire. He would walk in with a WR group worse than what he had in college.
He might revive Preston Williams (1-15-0/3). Teams are still covering Williams hot…while Fitz is pushing DeVante Parker (10-110-0/12), which defenses seem to be fine making Fitz-Parker beat them (because it’s not working).
I don’t know how good Tua is going to be for the NFL…I’m skeptical.
-- DeVante Parker is now game-on as a WR1.5 threat in PPR until defenses change/if they change how they cover him.
Preston Williams doesn’t exist except in the red zone for Fitz, it seems (he’s getting RZ targets but not many connections).
Isaiah Ford (4-40-0/10) by default is getting targets, but he’s not very athletic so he doesn’t do much with them. He’s solid/capable. Nothing special, but any WR getting 6-8+ targets a game is worth something in an emergency.
-- Durham Smythe (2-30-0/2) got a little extra pass game work in here, (for him) but he’s still playing less snaps then Mike Gesicki (1-15-0/3). Smythe looks capable but this offense is so stiff and Gesicki gets red zone…it will never FF-matter.
-- An impressive debut for DeeJay Dallas (2-8-0, 2-15-0/2). He’s a scrappy, high energy, high effort runner that could matter if Chris Carson ever got hurt for an extended period of time. Dallas had a real nice run and run after the catch among his limited touches…very agile/bouncy on his feet for his bowling ball-like body. He might matter someday, but not today.
Speaking of that – don’t forget…Rashaad Penny is slated to return Week 8 – IF he is cleared. He’s rehabbing off an ACL last year, suffered just as he was starting to breakout for Seattle. Unless, Carson goes down and out…Penny, Hyde, Homer, Dallas will never matter for FF 2020.
-- With all the offensive fireworks for Seattle, #3 WR David Moore (3-95-1/4) sails right under the radar. He has a TD catch in two of his last 3 games. If the fireworks persist…he enters the BYE week Flex/WR3 picture potentially. He’s talented but overshadowed by Metcalf-Lockett-Carson-Olsen. He gets a TD this week v. MIN and people will be looking at him more for FF.
-- On the fireworks theory, Greg Olsen (5-35-0/7) has 4 or more catches in three of his 4 games this season. He’s getting a healthy dose of targets and catches, but he is looking slow/the age is catching up with him – but still TE1.5-2.0 viable in PPR.
-- Rookie RB/WR Lynn Bowden (1-5-0) got in for a play at wildcat QB, which is how he rose to power in college last year. I don’t see any real push of him as a WR or RB here so far after 4 weeks.
-- The Miami-DST is 12th in the NFL in PPG allowed…not bad considering they have faced Buffalo and Seattle among their games so far. Their three losses this year have come against teams a combined (11-1) so far.
Miami’s defense has hung in despite the fact that Byron Jones has missed, essentially, the last 3 games…it’s not bad.
I’ve stated multiple times you want this defense with the KC-DST, a near-perfect pairing. But if you don’t have KC-DST, it’s not a bad DST to grab this week to use at DEN Week 6. Or pickup after Week 7-8 before they have Weeks 10 v NYJ, Week 11 bye, Week 12 at NYJ.
This is all assuming they have their dangerous CB duo Xavien Howard-Byron Jones healthy/playing. Rookie CB Noah Igbinoghene (1 tackle) is playing very well too, so Miami could soon have a really stout pass defense.
Snap Counts of Interest:
46 = Gaskin
17 = Breida
08 = J Howard
04 = Bowden
57 = DeVante
45 = I Ford
43 = Preston W
28 = Jakeem Grant
35 = Carson
17 = Homer
11 = Dallas