2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Dolphins 43, 49ers 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This game is being so overlooked, so misinterpreted by the media and us fans. This is a classic case of all of us seeing what we have been conditioned to see.
-We think the 49ers are a top team in general…so, we’re going to overlook all their devastating defensive injuries and keep on thinking they’re good – reinforced because they smoked the Jets and Giants in back-to-back weeks.
-We think the Dolphins are a bad team because…remember early last year?.
-We think Jimmy Garoppolo must be hurt because – how could this happen against lowly Miami if it weren’t true? He was benched because of his injury not fully healed.
The real story is…
1) The 49ers are going to be lucky to be .500 this season because of all their injuries.
2) Miami is better across the board then the 49ers because of their offseason moves and SF’s mass injuries.
You ready for this? I don’t think you are…
Since Week 9 of last regular season (last 9 games in 2019) + the 2020 season so far, the records for these two teams:
(8-5) = SF
(7-6) = MIA
If the Vegas lines are right about Week 6…that will be both (8-6) in this comparison after Week 6.
3) Miami has an emerging, excellent defense.
4) The 49ers’ downfall is their own doing on top of the injuries because Robert Selah is one of the worst, if not the worst D-C in the NFL. But the media likes his look, so the 49ers are afraid to change.
5) Jimmy G. was benched to send him a pre-warning. This wasn’t because of an injury…it was because he’s not that great and more pressing is the Miami defense is really good and gets no credit for the sheer dominance here.
The 49ers are playing for their season this week at LAR. If they lose, this season is essentially ‘over’ for them. From Weeks 7-13: @NE, @SEA, GB, @NO, BYE, @LAR, BUF. Six games they will be an underdog in. If they lose this week to LAR and drop to (2-4) they will probably lose five of their next 6 after that and be done. We could be looking at a 5-6 win 49ers team if they lose to LAR this week. 7-8 wins if they beat LAR this week. Never discount Kyle Shanahan but he can only do so much with a dying team.
I could see Kyle making a deal for Matt Ryan to try to save the season, but he might be better to just pack it in and write this year off to injury and rebuild in 2021.
Miami is now (2-3). When they beat NYJ this week they will be (3-3) heading into a BYE. I would project them to finish with 8-9 wins as it stands right now. If they stay healthy and fix their RB situation – this becomes a dangerous team you don’t want to play, especially at home…and three of their next 6 games are at home.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The resurgence of Miami is going to come from their defense. From my ‘Upside DST of the Week’ notes for Week 6:
Obviously, 'anything against the Jets' -- that's the only reason you need. But I want you to consider how good the Miami defense might be...
They're currently #10 in the league in PPR allowed to opponents...not bad.
But look at the splits based on Byron Jones:
25.0 PPG allowed = in 3 games Byron Jones was out
21.0 PPR allowed = in 2 games with Byron Jones playing/active
Check this out...
333.3 net passing yards allowed = in 3 games Byron Jones was out
134.0 net passing yards allowed = in 2 games with Byron Jones playing/active
It's a good defense for Week 6, for sure...but it may have legs beyond that.
The Dolphins defense might be a top 5-10 defense, as a unit, in the NFL ahead…IF they have Xavien Howard and Byron Jones healthy.
It’s just not the ace CBs either…it’s a solid, deep rotational D-Line. They have solid enough linebackers. They are #7 in the league on 3rd-downs as a defense (38% convert against). They are #9 in QB hits. This unit is good and was showing signs in the 2nd-half of last year starting, and added a bunch of smart free agents in the offseason…it’s coming together.
-- Thus, the Jimmy Garoppolo (7-17 for 77 yards, 0 TD/2 INTs) was not an injury issue. It was Jimmy G. is not great + rusty/not 100% + Miami’s defense.
If Jimmy G, is bad in a loss to the Rams this week…a change to C.J. Beathard may have to happen. The 49ers can easily walk away from Jimmy G. in 2021, contractually. The end of Jimmy G. might be a week away and the 49ers essentially start to tank the season instead of swimming upstream with all kinds of injuries crushing them.
-- Because the 49ers are down to 3rd-string corners, Preston Williams (4-106-1/5) saw nice targeting. Every time CB Brian Allen was on a WR, that’s where Fitz went usually. Preston was that winner a few times.
Note…Fitz took two 25+ yard shot deep balls to PW for TDs and one was a D-P.I. no play and the other was not open. Just know Fitz was trying…he was swashbuckling with Preston. Good to see.
You think Fitz will try again this week with PW vs. NYJ?
-- Myles Gaskin (16-57-1, 5-34-0/5) avoided the Le’Veon Bell takeover…but it goes to show what I’ve been hinting at – Gaskin is a target very able to be taken out. Could be by a Todd Gurley or David Johnson or whomever in an acquisition, or it could be by Matt Breida (9-28-0, 1-31-0/1).
‘Takeout’ probably means a split of some kind in the near future. Like a 50-50 or hot hand game where Breida just stays in longer and longer. There was no sign of that here. Breida got a few good opportunities but he didn’t really cash in on any of them.
Gaskin is clearly Brian Flores’s guy…until he isn’t, but right now it’s clearly Gaskin and he isn’t really helping them but Breida isn’t doing anything obvious either.
On the Miami roster, today, Breida is the one inline if something happens to Gaskin.
-- No debate in San Francisco at RB. Raheem Mostert (11-90-0, 3-29-0/3) has runaway with it. If not for a blowout occurring, Mostert (in a tight game) would’ve seen 20+ carries easy.
Jerick McKinnon (1-0-0, 2-3-0/4)…thank you for your service…buh-bye. He’s like a non-entity anymore. A mild pass game relief back. When Tevin Coleman returns in a few weeks (if) then it’s a Mostert dominant lead with Tevin playing 25-30% of the snaps/touches.
This is your last week to buy Mostert reasonably before he has a huge touch count and could go skyrocketing in value.
-- Deebo Samuel (2-19-0/8) was a victim of three things…
1) CB Xavien Howard and the Miami defense. 80% of the issue.
2) The problem with Jimmy Garoppolo and/or C.J. Beathard, which was more the Miami defense. 10% of the issue.
3) Deebo was sick all week and away from the team for most of the week. Might have been a factor a tiny bit. 10% of the issue.
The issue #1 above, it’s a problem again Weeks 6-7…
Week 6 v. Jalen Ramsey
Week 7 v. Stephon Gillmore
-- Two IDP’s to point out…
1) MIA LB Andrew Van Ginkel (6 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 1.5 TFL)…he has 2.5 sacks in his last three games played. A hard working, 240+ pound LB who ran a 6.89 three-cone at his NFL Combine 2019 (which is very high end for his size). He played 70% of the snaps this week, double what he’s done in prior weeks. It looks like he’s emerging a bit as a pass rusher.
2) SF DT Kerry Hyder (2 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 1.5 TFLs, 3 QB hits), is a DT we keep pointing out every week because he always catches my attention. 3.5 sacks this season a among the NFL leaders with 10 QB hits.
-- As I’ve been saying for weeks…this SF-DST is dying a fast death, and it took a fatal head wound here. I’m really surprised D-C Robert Saleh didn’t get fired this week, honestly/no joke. Since their hot schedule-based (easy) start last season, this defense has been torched regularly…except beating up Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold a few weeks ago.
Against non-NY teams this season they’ve given up 24-25-43 points in games.
From Week 9 on last season the gave up: 25-27-26-8-20-46-29-31-21 in regular season games to the end of the year (over 27 PPG allowed their last 12 regular season games).
They have no defensive backfield to speak of. They lost Nick Bosa. They can’t keep all 3 linebackers healthy for more than a few weeks at a time. They are dying, but people are still holding like is the 1st-half of 2019. There is nothing here. The schedule gets much worse (their next 7 games are with likely 2020 playoff teams/good-to-great offenses). They are undermanned. They need to rebuild this completely in 2021.
Because some people are holding onto the past, you can probably add them as a sweetener in a deal this week to open up a space (if you have).
Snap Counts of Interest:
31 = Mostert
16 = McKinnon
15 = J Wilson
62 = Aiyuk
57 = Deebo
42 = Gaskin
21 = Breida
10 = Laird
10 = Bowden