2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Raiders 40, Chiefs 32
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
How ‘bout that Chiefs defense, huh? In the era of mass scoring and ignored holding calls…when your DST faces a viable offense, this might happen. The Raiders were good, and are good, on offense but a little bit of luck was thrown in for good measure. Mostly, though, the Raiders are just a very good team/offense and Jon Gruden (my opinion) is a smarter, craftier, better head coach than Andy Reid…Reid just has Mahomes. Reid wasn’t a genius with Alex Smith. Gruden beat KC with an undermanned unit…kudos to Jon.
Like the Chiefs, I took the Raiders FF-lightly with the KC-DST here…and got-got just like KC did.
It was a back & forth game all game, and the real main factor here is, once again, besides their Baltimore game, the Chiefs play lazy because they think/know they can turn on the jets when they need to…and they usually do and win. It was going to catch up to them at some point…and it just did here. KC is the best team in the NFL, because of Mahomes PLUS a top NFL defense, but it also has its own head up its own ass so far (crowded along with the adoring media) that they can’t see so straight. Perhaps, this wake-up call is what they needed. Happens to the best of them.
Kansas City should come out on fire this week and crush their next opponent, you’d think…and/but they face a Buffalo team also recently humiliated with the same mindset. Bad draw for Buffalo because KC has much more talent and is much healthier and two days extra rest. KC could run the table from here, but they’ll probably lose another 1-2 games, maybe 3 more if they keep playing things ‘too cool’.
The Raiders are going to be a tough-out wild card as we projected since June-July. This win kinda solidifies that they are not to be trifled with. They’re only going to get better. KC better not sleep too much on them because the Raiders can win 10+ games this year. If KC slips up again in the near future, it’s only going to fuel Vegas who now has a tiebreaker advantage in their pocket.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- A slightly odd thing happened in the 2nd-quarter of this game…
Devontae Booker (7-62-0, 1-1-0/5) came out and was the ‘main back’ to start the 2nd-quarter drive for the Raiders. Not a big deal. Josh Jacobs (23-77-2, 2-8-0/3) needs a breather from his overuse. Booker looked good for the whole series and it ended kinda quick off a Derek Carr TD bomb to Nelson Agholor.
But here’s the odd thing…
Booker came back out again for the next drive…two drives in-a-row he started. His first carry of the 2nd-drive for him, a sweet 43-yard pop. When it happened live (watching 7 games at one time), I was like ‘wow’ Jacobs really looks quick and made a nice run there. It took me 3-4-5 seconds to realize it was Booker.
Josh Jacobs has one of the lowest ‘yards before contact’ among top RBs (1.6 yards per) – either his O-Line is bad, or they’re consumed by a stacked box attacking Jacobs. Let me see which one it is… Jacobs played 45 snaps and ran the ball 23 times this game…so 50%+ of the time you can guess ‘Jacobs run’ when he’s in. He also got 3 targets. When Jacobs was in, he got the ball 57.8% of the time. Easy to guess for the defense that is definitely stacking Jacobs now on a weekly basis.
Jacobs has a very low ‘yards before contact’ rating and a very low 3.6 yards per carry on the season. It’s either him, the O-Line, or stacked box defenses. I think it’s the most obvious option – stacked boxes with some O-Line injuries not helping.
Subsequently, Booker is averaging a whopping 7.1 yards per carry this season. Aided a bit by the long run but is 4.9 yards per carry outside of the big run.
Just noting this because…
1) We might see a touch more Booker, and a hint less of Jacobs ahead…which would relieve JJ of some burden. Keep him fresh. But possible take his FF opps down a bit.
2) I’d almost bet Jacobs is going to break down from all the mass touches and stacked box defensive hits if he keeps getting overused (and I think this is the most likely outcome ahead)…Booker could be the Mike Davis from Las Vegas, if/when it happens. Just saying… Jacobs owners you better have Booker.
-- Speaking of struggling RBs…Clyde Edwards-Helaire (10-40-0, 3-40-0/8), amiright? How fast did the bloom fall off that rose? What would you have needed to trade for the 1.01 in your Dynasty Rookie Draft to get CEH? I bet it’s not as expensive a proposition today.
It could get worse/cheaper of a price if Le’Veon Bell winds up here in the next few days.
Think it’s not possible? Leonard Fournette was talking with KC. The Chiefs are not inflicted with Rookie Derangement as Fantasy GMs are.
Bell would be in a split with CEH, I imagine…a 60/40 split by Week 8-9. If the KC RB has been an RB 1.5-2.0, what happens when you split their touches? They both become random RB2s like RoJo-Fournette early 2020 season, before Fournette got hurt.
-- Sammy Watkins is going to miss a few weeks (shocker). That SHOULD lead to better Mecole Hardman (2-50-0/3) results but once again Watkins was gone, Hardman played big snap counts…and in a back-and-forth battle against a team with weak corners – Mecole got 2 catches and 3 targets. Beware. Great matchups ahead, but is there such a thing if Hardman isn’t seeing the ball much?
-- Speaking of Mecole Hardman, Mecole 2.0/Henry Ruggs (2-118-1/3) had a Mecole-day right in Mecole’s face. A couple big plays on limited targets. His non-TD catch was pure luck/snatched off the DBs helmet who should’ve picked the pass or knocked away.
I said Ruggs was Mecole-like in my pre-NFL Draft scouting reports…and it’s coming to fruition.
Nelson Agholor (2-67-1/2) is the Raiders #1 WR, but that warrants all of 2 targets in this game.
55 of the Raiders’ 66 plays (rushes/targets) were to the RBs or TEs.
I thought Bryan Edwards could come in and take that #1 WR role, and he kinda did from snap #1 this season (but then got hurt) – but what does that FF-matter is the #1 WR on the Raiders equals 2-4 targets a game?
Hunter Renfrow (1-42-0/2) is playing his arse off…and he caught 1 pass for 2 targets here in a game they beat KC and scored 40 points.
As long as Gruden is there – it’s an RB/TE-based offense and that’s that.
-- Derek Carr (22-31 for 347 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) is smart about it…he’s not leaning on any one thing for targeting. He wants Waller, but if you take that away he’ll go anywhere else that’s open – not just to ‘his bailout guy’ over and over (like Kyler+Hopkins, or Brees+Thomas). Good for NFL…bad for FF WRs/projections on Carr’s style.
Since Week 2, Carr is the #12 QB in FF PPG (4pts per pass TD).
-- Chiefs rookie LB Willie Gay (6 tackles, 1 sack) played a season high 47% of the snaps and had season highs in all his output categories. Looks like he’s working his way to becoming a starter. I’m not a huge fan, but he’s progressing.
-- Maxx Crosby (2 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 2 QB hits) started out slow Weeks 1-2, but is coming on now – 4.0 sacks his last 3 games. He’s starting to get back to his high IDP ways he finished 2019 with.
-- Lost faith in the KC-DST? Don’t.
Week 6 = KC at BUF…I told you to prep for this week with Miami ahead of time.
Week 7 = KC at Drew Lock
Week 8 = KC v. Darnold/Flacco
Week 9 = KC v. Teddy could go either way
Week 10 = BYE (Miami v. LAC is now really dying as an option)…could be a jumping off point for KC-DST, or Week 9 for a better Week 9-10 punch.
Week 11 = at Derek Carr again (Miami at Drew Lock)
Week 12 = at Brady (Miami at Flacco/Darnold)
Week 13 = KC at Drew Lock
Week 14 = KC at Fitz/Tua
The COVID schedule changes messed up my master plan a little bit from weeks ago on this. Still good though.
Snap Counts of Interest:
63 = Tyreek
50 = Hardman
49 = Dem Robinson
26 = Watkins
43 = CEH
29 = DWilliams
45 = Jacobs
15 = Booker
14 = Richard
55 = Agholor
45 = Ruggs
24 = Renfrow
09 = Zay Jones