2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Rams 30, Football Team 10
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Well, I had a great week of handicapping overall…best of 2020 season…but my best bet of the Football Team +9.0 blew up in my face. My only loss on my Blazing Five.
What happened? Well, I’m not sure if it would have mattered…but once Kyle Allen went out – this one was over. Alex Smith was not ready. It’s not like TFC was looking that good prior. The rain then began to fall harder with Smith’s arrival, which only exasperated things.
The Rams were just smarter, better executed, and the Rams defense was tougher than Washington’s much of the game. Quality win on the road, in the rain for a Rams team I thought would fall flat and struggle in this spot.
The Rams can put the 49ers out of their misery for 2020 by beating them this upcoming week. If the Rams lose Week 6 at SF, they allow the 49ers to get back into the race and drop the Rams down within striking distance. We project the Rams to 9-10 wins right now.
Washington is just a game out of 1st-place…but they also only have one win on the season and have lost four in-a-row. They have NYG-DAL-bye-NYG the next 4 weeks…if they can win two of 3, they could be (3-6) and maybe tied for 1st-place. They have three winnable games after that with DET-CIN-DAL. Seven wins will win this division but I’m not sure Washington can get there. We see 5-6 wins more likely.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- It wasn’t much better with Kyle Allen (9-13 for 74 yards, 0 TDs/0 INT) starting over Dwayne Haskins, but it was better. Allen played under control, safe…not like the walking turnover known as ‘Haskins’.
Allen was playing small ball – short, safe dump passes and trying to run clock and take small bites to get downfield. Not taking sacks or throwing picks. It’s better than what they were doing.
However, once Alex Smith (9-17 for 37 yards, 0 TDs/0 INT) entered then everything changed for the worse. It might be Smith is rusty, how could he not be, or it could be that Smith is ‘done’ and it’s a nice story that doesn’t matter in the end or ‘end well’.
Smith was truly awful here. Jittery. Throwing passes to short receivers anytime he could. When he had to throw deep later in the game he seemed like he was closing his eyes and over and under throwing all over. He looked dreadful. The rain wasn’t helping. Smith was sacked 6 times in a half+ of play.
Washington is down to Kyle Allen as their only hope. In this era of abundant QBs…how did this happen? He’s Rivera’s guy from the Carolina days, and all those losses late last year that got him fired – Allen was the QB/author and now is his choice to turn this Washington mess around. Good luck with that.
-- I’m already sick of hearing it, but I know it’s going to get worse every day this week…the chatter about Sean McVay wanting to get more touches to Cam Akers (9-61-0). Straight from McVay’s mouth post-game.
All I can say is – take McVay at his word. And where do you think those touches are coming from? From Darrell Henderson’s (15-38-1, 3-30-1/4) account, that’s where.
Thanks Darrell…it’s been swell. I’ve got to go.
I’ve got to turn on you, even though I don’t want to. A lot of FF teams are burned by BYEs and everything else this week…there’s a potential market for a live human RB (DHendo) with some hope…you might be surprised by the trades you can make. I’m shocked at some of the first ones I’ve seen…dealing DH for helpful WRs (I saw a straight deal in redraft for Justin Jefferson already among other similar level names) or DH mixed into multiplayer deals.
Akers looked good in his late-game mercy carries against a water-soaked, defeated Washington defense…so, that means Akers is ‘the man’ now. I’m not going to bother analyzing it, complaining about it, or wishing it weren’t true. I’m taking McVay at his word backed up by his actions with Henderson for the past two years.
-- Washington RB situation is evolving…
Antonio Gibson (11-27-0, 5-24-0/5) is starting to run out of steam. The rookie excitement wearing off and revealing just a decent, over-his-head RB getting 10+ carries a game and not rushing for a ton of yards but you hope he somehow scores a short TD. We got a lot of those type RBs in FF right now.
What is starting perk is J.D. McKissic (1-3-0, 6-46-0)…the new James White, or the old Chris Thompson for Washington – like back during that one stretch where Thompson PPR-back’d his way to RB1 levels for several weeks on giant catch counts/output.
McKissic has seen 8 targets in each of his last two games and caught 7 and 6 passes in each of those games.
With Kyle Allen, and the bad Washington O-Line…the best play they have is Allen looking downfield for a second and then tossing it short to McKissic. J.D. is on the verge of becoming their Christian McCaffrey-lite, as I’ve mentioned the past two weeks – undersized runner with the heart of a dragon, very elusive, and great hands ready for all the dump passes they want to throw at him.
You could do worse looking for BYE week help in PPR. He could be a 7-10 catch, 50+ yards and hope for a lucky TD guy ahead in this Kyle Allen offense.
-- All tight ends are terrible in fantasy except like 2-3 of them. Three terrible ones played in this game…
1) Tyler Higbee (2-12-0/2) is dead. Not been used legit in the passing game all year except in little bursts here and there. No strong purpose or regularity. Gone was the chance that he continued his late 2019. Most TEs are busting/disappointing except Kelce and Waller, and Kittle in that one game…so, most of us were going to be scrambling for TEs at this point anyway. It’s time to write off/replace this particular asset.
Yes, as soon as you cut him he will catch 8 passes for 125 yards for some other team and you’ll fly into a rage. But what else are we to do here? His target counts are: 3-5-2-3-2 in his five games. Are you kidding me?
2) Logan Thomas (1-4-0/4) was viable for a moment but the moment’s gone. Died after Week 2. I knew it would.
3) Higbee’s fall is not because of Gerald Everett (4-90-0/4). Everett’s catch counts prior to this week were: 1-0-2-1. That’s not a real plan. You take advantage of Washington’s linebackers with the TE, and the Rams did…with Everett…not Higbee.
-- Strong effort by the Rams-DST here. Three more weeks of opportunity before it’s time to bail most likely. At SF, CHI, at MIA the next 3 weeks before a Week 9 BYE. Then the schedule ramps up after the BYE: SEA, at TB, SF, at ARI, NE, NYJ, at SEA through Week 16.
-- Washington-DST is so erratic and disappointing but they’ve played good offenses/QBs the past four weeks. Their schedule ahead is money in at least two of the next four weeks…if not three of the next 4 weeks.
Week 6 = at Dan Jones
Week 7 = v. Dalton
Week 8 = BYE
Week 9 = v. Dan Jones
Anything against Daniel Demise is a good thing for DSTs.
Snap Counts of Interest:
54 = McLaurin
42 = I Wright
31 = Inman
23 = Gandy-Golden
30 = Gibson
27 = McKissic
56 = Higbee
30 = Everett
29 = DHendo
26 = M Brown
13 = Akers