2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: Cardinals 38, Cowboys 10
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
How bad are ‘dem Cowboys? I mean…this has to be one of the five worst run organizations in football, no? Like the Jets then the Giants, then Bengals…then maybe the Cowboys or Eagles? The Browns seem more stable today.
When Jerry Jones has a football decision to make, he’s going to butcher it. He keeps hiring incompetent coaches because Jones may be smart as a whip in other things but he’s terrible in football people decisions…partly because he wants subordinate lackeys and some of it is he’s just bad reading football people. I mean, only an idiot would hire Mike McCarthy after his Green Bay ending. Nothing McCarthy has done for the past decade has given anyone confidence in him…and yet Jerry paid him a monster deal to come sleep-at-the-switch for Dallas.
Mike McCarthy was a mistake. Taking Ezekiel Elliott in the draft over Jalen Ramsey was a mistake. Paying Ezekiel a monster contract was a mistake. Taking CeeDee Lamb as a 1st-round pick was a mistake. Mistake after mistake with Jerry is catching up. Jerry has the best personnel guy in the business, Will McClay but messes that up by making his own 1st-round picks and hiring terrible coaches to manage good players. The Cowboys don’t have a talent issue…it’s worse, it’s a management issue. And that management issue cannot be fixed this year or any year until Jerry retires.
The constant fumbling around and big deficits early in games – it was happening with Dak before, and then again with Dalton here…it’s a coaching issue. Nothing more, nothing less. Imagine where Dallas would even be had Jerry gotten to draft Paxton Lynch instead of taking Dak. Jerry wanted to draft Lynch so BAD he almost started crying on TV when someone else took him. Without Dak, Dallas would be adrift…worse than they are now.
This was not Arizona winning…this was Dallas being Dallas, and Arizona stepped out of the way and let the Cowboys faceplant.
Dallas is (2-4) and they are probably not going to win the NFC East. I don’t know who is, but it’s not Dallas. Philly by attrition maybe but NYG or WSH still have a chance.
Arizona (4-2) wins to get to four wins on the season and that should be a nice story, but all the story coming from this is (rightfully) so is how bad Dallas is. Arizona is fortunate that Dallas took the bullet here, because the Cardinals weren’t that great in this game, and they secretly stink…but beating the Jets and Cowboys the past two weeks is a smoke screen from that reality. Arizona is going to start getting exposed starting Week 7 v. SEA.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- We begin, per usual in an Arizona recap, with the Kyler Murray (9-24 for 188 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 10-74-1) Report…and the report is not good.
9 of 24 passing (37.5%)? At home, against Dallas? In a dome/perfect weather?
Had Kyler not hit Christian Kirk (2-86-2/3) for a broken coverage, wide-open 80-yard TD…he was 8-of-23 passing (34.8%) for 108 yards otherwise. Thank goodness, for FF, Kyler is still running the ball heavy.
I don’t see Kyler Murray getting any better as a passer, and I don’t see this offense doing anything better than last year. It’s the same tired plays and routes, only this year Kyler is running more and that is opening up opportunity. And Kyler is a gifted arm talent, so he makes plays…and is more comfortable in his NFL shoes now. I would FF-fear this ‘no progression’/this offense + seeing the weakening passer numbers/volume, EXCEPT the schedule is GOLDEN ahead. They don’t face a top 10 pass defense until Week 12 at NE.
The closing schedule is rougher…Weeks 12-16 are all against top 10-15 pass defenses and two potential cold weather games Week 12 at NE, Week 14 at NYG.
Kyler is working for Fantasy. The #2 PPG QB in the game right now (4pts per pass TD). He should keep working for FF, but a slowdown coming starting Week 12 potentially. He’s putting up great numbers, he’s running a lot, he has a great name – I’m not against trading him super high or just sticking with him. He won’t hurt you bad. But I see some things that worry me for the future, so if I made a killer deal to get multiple great pieces in a deal, especially if I get Josh Allen or Justin Herbert, either QB + a great piece (especially in a 6pts per pass TD and/or with bonuses for yards), I’m looking at it.
You need do nothing.
I’m just sharing what I see…and what I see is starting to worry me on how great, how high-end sustainable this will be.
In another week, he might be the highest scoring player in all of FF 2020. It’s not like we got a massive problem here.
Any Dynasty owners complaining that I said he was the top Dynasty Rookie prospect in 2019…and to make major deals to get him? You’re not wanting Josh Jacobs over Kyler instead/anymore, I bet. The thought process and reality on Kyler back in 2019 is working, but I’m not just going to fall asleep on it and assume it’s all gold from here. Mahomes it is all-gold all the time…Kyler, I’m not so sure.
-- Kenyan Drake (20-164-2, 0-0-0/2) was on his way to another ‘meh’ NFL and FF performance, but a late game 3rd & 1 play to run the clock turned into a wide-open 69 yards TD run and made Drake look like a star, on paper.
If I owned Drake, I couldn’t sell him fast enough off this output – it was mostly a fluke.
The schedule of pass defenses ahead is pretty sweet, but those opponent’s run defenses are great. Not a good outlook ahead for the sluggish/mediocre Drake.
-- I’d be selling Christian Kirk (2-86-2/3) to anyone who would believe he is anywhere near a WR2 now. If they didn’t, I’d hold and just let him take advantage/have hope with this sweet pass game schedule ahead.
I’ll buy DeAndre Hopkins (2-73-0/8) if anyone is panicking.in PPR. Hopkins is a great target for Kyler but note that DHopk only has 2 TDs this season…on a pace for 5-6 TDs this season. He’s putting up old Keenan Allen numbers…big volume, big catches, so-so TDs.
Rounding out the Arizona WRs…Andy Isabella (0-0-0/2), I pray he gets traded. He’s so not used properly in this offense it’s silly. A wasted draft pick…and 2nd-rounder in 2019.
-- Like I was saying Sunday morning about Andy Dalton (34-54 for 266 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs)…
I could not understand why all the ‘the team will barely miss a beat with Dalton instead of Dak’! chatter was happening. Who thought that? It was all the highly paid analysts. Why do they think that? Because they have no idea what they’re doing…and they’re also giving advice on other things they know nothing of – like they think Josh Allen is fading.
If anyone watched this game start-to-finish, it was Joe Flacco 2019 and 2020-esque. I think so many analysts are like Jerry Jones…so sold a bag of goods on a prospect like CeeDee Lamb (7-64-0/10) that they think the offense is bulletproof because of the great CeeDee joining the mix of Amari-Gallup.
First off, Chase Claypool and Justin Jefferson are already 10x better than Lamb, so it was a stupid pick already…easy to say/judge that today. You would never draft Lamb ahead of Claypool or Jefferson knowing what you know now. I could name 3-5+ other rookie WRs better than Lamb, but I’ll just stick with the two most obvious to prove the point immediately.
Secondly, Cedrick Wilson (2-10-0/3) is as good/better than CeeDee Lamb.
Third, Lamb took a lot of garbage time throws late to pump his numbers but into the 4th-quarter his numbers were a nightmare.
I implored you, for the low amount of FFMers who have him, to sell him hot last week…you still have a chance this week.
-- I loved all the Ezekiel Elliott (12-49-0, 8-31-0/11) excuse making on MNF. Some guys are assumed elite and bulletproof and their mistakes are not really their mistakes, they are written off as ‘not them’/’need to clean up’. Zeke is beyond reproach, as is CeeDee Lamb…and it’s going to destroy, and already is, the Dallas Cowboys franchise.
The Dallas ownership believes a lie/lives in its own world, and the TV people and their fans keep enabling them.
They are still selling an s-ton of Dallas merch…so, who’s the fool in this equation?
The Cowboys have 3 playoff wins since 1997…and no NFC finals appearances.
Zeke Elliott is well-paid/getting fat-dumb-happy, his numbers are in decline, his on-field face/body language seems ‘checked out’. He’s going to get the touches of a high-end RB1 but producing high-end RB1 numbers is now in question for 2020. We might start seeing the Saquon Barkley problem here – bad O-Line, defenses stacked against him, and you hope he somehow finds his way to TDs and catches to have decent FF numbers.
5 fumbles this year, 4 fumbles lost.
I’m going to take a shot of Diet Dr. Pepper every time I hear an analyst say, this week, that Zeke just needs to clean that up and I know he will, about his fumbling.
The issue is the O-Line first and foremost, now compounded by the QB play. Zeke is solid, but now he’s taking on big hits with little blocking like never before and he’s being exposed as ‘good’ not ‘great’ – but Jerry already paid for ‘great’. Most RBs are a function of their O-Line…so, Zeke is in trouble for the rest of 2020.
Make sure you own Tony Pollard (10-31-0, 2-9-0/4) just in case…
-- The Cardinals-DST looked sharp here, but don’t get sucked in by them. They are the #9 DST in FF PPG through Week 6, but much of that came early in the season. Their defense has been fading for weeks and lost Chandler Jones a week ago – they just luckily drew Flacco-Dalton in back-to-back weeks. Russell Wilson this week…no thanks.
Snap Counts of Interest:
54 = Elliott
32 = Pollard
42 = Drake
23 = Edmonds
50 = Kirk
48 = D Hopkins
38 = Fitz
19 = Isabella