2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: Dolphins 24, Jets 0
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I thought this would be the most uninteresting game report of the week. Miami shutout the Jets…not a shock. Hard to even report out on the players from the game because the backdrop of playing against the Jets warps opinions, trends, etc. However, in the final two minutes of this game…Miami trotted out Tua Tagovailoa, and that seemed meaningless at the time – until they announced him as the new starter a day later. That’s big, FF-changing news for sure. We’ll get to that.
As far as this game goes – easy win for Miami, as expected. They jumped out to a quick 21-0 lead and then kinda scuffled from there to a 24-0 victory heading to their bye week. Miami gets to (3-3) and is staring down a chance to make the playoffs. However, the move to Tua…no one knows the impact. We haven’t seen him but for two late game throws in this contest. He’s coming off a MAJOR hip injury/surgery. He hasn’t been with the first team much, you’d think. Training camp reports on him were mixed. We don’t know how this is going to go.
I’m assuming the Tua switch is going to go poorly, at first, but I’m open to the fact that the NFL play/plays are easier than college for most of the top QB prospects now…but I’m suspect on whether Tua is a top QB prospect. Miami having won two in-a-row, if they lose their first game with Tua, and it’s an ugly – there will be a fan revolt. He’s being put in a terrible situation to bring perfection right away. I hope he can, he’s a great kid…but I’d bet against it happening quickly (if at all).
Why change now? They could’ve been bringing in Tua for snaps for weeks -- just to get him ready if they were itching for a change. This absolutely smells like a rash ownership decision. Even the Bears waited for Mitch Trubisky to be ‘bad’ in a game to make the switch to Nick Foles. Miami just won two in a row scoring 33.5 points per game -- and after all that they decided to make a switch…why? Head coaches don’t mess with success like this. This has to be a decision from above…which means it’s going to bite them. When they try to switch back to Fitz, it will be weird…and could damage the Tua mystique/confidence. Too late now.
On the Tua switch, we project Miami will not make the playoffs and will go (5-11/6-10). With Fitz all the way, we projected (8-8) with a possible (9-7). I’m willing to see Tua in action to change my mind.
The Jets? They will go (0-16). They will NOT fire Adam Gase. They will pick #1 and draft Trevor Lawrence (who will not want to go there) and then they’ll trade Sam Darnold before the draft some time. Potentially Darnold to the Browns, as they trade Baker to New England.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- How will the offense change with Tua (2-2 for 9 yards, 0 TD/0 INT)? No clue.
We don’t know who he likes to throw to/who he has an on-field chemistry with. I’m hoping it’s Preston Williams (2-18-0/1), but the real answer may take weeks to figure out.
The Tua at Alabama version isn’t an easy/obvious translation to the NFL. Alabama had a dominant run game, O-Line, and WR group compared to their opponents. The Miami Dolphins offense has none of that going for them. Myles Gaskin (18-91-0, 4-35-0/4) will be the worst RB that Tua has ever played with…and Gaskin being so nothing allows defenses to sit back on Tua and play him to pass, so an even tougher road to hoe.
I’d like to tell you what all will happen ahead, but I haven’t seen Tua in NFL action but on two throws against the Jets in a prevent defense. My gut says the Tua debut prediction: https://youtu.be/lSPNQ82Sq4E
-- You know who looks really good, spry, and nicely targeted at WR? Breshad Perriman (4-62-0/8). You know…the Jets’ #1 WR?
Flacco was going after it with him, but it’s Joe Flacco…he missed an open Perriman on two 30+ yards throws, one an easy TD. I don’t know how high Perriman can go with Sam Darnold but considering they will be down a lot and throwing…Perriman might be a super-solid WR2-3 on volume ahead.
Perriman was dominant with Tampa Bay late last year, which got him a big deal with NYJ…he’s just now getting fully healthy. He looks really good/healthy/quick. He is looking and moving like a ‘#1’ for them…but the ‘them’ is a drag on his upside.
-- Speaking of spry WRs… I was watching Preston Williams (2-18-1/2) on some isolated tape…just to watch his feet again, to see if he’s ready if Tua is good for his business. But also knowing that PW is off ACL surgery, so I was re-checking that his so-so 2020 isn’t because he’s lost some ‘it’.
I still see the nice cutting ability and good speed on tape. It may not be as amazing as it was last year, but it’s still pretty good or pretty close to what I expect to see. He’s ready for Tua, but I don’t know if Tua is ready to push it to PW. Preston might be more athletically gifted, but not becoming more of a technician to go with it. Athletes like, better than Preston are flooding into the NFL. In 2019, he was a bit rare…in 2020…he’s another good prospect in a suspect offense.
There’s hope, and fear with a move to Tua for Preston.
-- Mike Gesicki (0-0-0/2) might not miss Ryan Fitz. You never know what the Gesicki output was going to be under Fitz. His last 4 games, Gesicki has: 1-1-5-0 for catch counts in a game.
At the same time, Adam Shaheen (3-51-1/3) is suddenly making waves. He scored a TD in this game, and almost had a 40+ yard score added but he was tackled a yard short. He’s still playing 20-30% of the snaps, not a feature role at all.
Miami is rotating Gesicki, Durham Smythe, and now Shaheen all game…and Shaheen is getting more and more time in the red zone because of his size. I’m not sure who Tua would prefer, he’s had more time with Shaheen in practice/camp probably.
-- The best-looking RB on the Jets roster…looks like newly signed Ty Johnson (3-42-0, 0-0-0/1) to me and it isn’t even debatable.
He entered this game midway and brought a spark not seen in two years for NYJ. He hit an 8-yard run on his inaugural carry, then blasted off with a 34 yarder the next carry. Of course, that was too much success for the Jets to handle so he was immediately brought to the sidelines and not seen touching the ball for a while.
Doesn’t Ty know the plan is to go (0-16)? We can’t be having successful plays, come on man.
If the Jets really are interested in playing and player development…we’re going to see more Ty Johnson ahead. A nice deep sleeper to sit on in deep roster FF leagues. The risk being the Jets are idiots…just ask Josh Adams.
-- Miami-DST pitching a shutout…been planning for this hope/matchup for weeks. Many of you were able to get in on it. I gotta admit…it felt good to watch a plan come to fruition. But now what?
Well, you will not confidently use the Miami-DST again until Weeks 11-12-13 for at DEN, at NYJ, CIN.
It’s a good pairing with KC, so maybe you think about holding them until then. If you have to, you could drop Miami in a regular 10-12 team league with regular roster sizes and try and re-pick back up again next week or two…maybe.
People are hoarding DSTs, so be careful. And Miami has a really good defense…that’s why I loved this hold/play. They may be OK Week 8 v. LAR. They might be OK Week 9 at ARI. Maybe OK v. LAC’s rough O-Line Week 10, but I don’t wanna face Herbert.
Just know that Miami has a really good defense. Tua may actually help it because he won’t be so radical bombing all the time and with the subsequent turnovers. Perhaps, Tua helps this DST with ball control, time of possession. Maybe.
Snap Counts of Interest:
39 = Gaskin
16 = Breida
06 = Laird
05 = Bowden
63 = Perriman
63 = Crowder
60 = J Smith