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2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Bills 18, Jets 10

Date:
October 27, 2020 11:26 AM
October 27, 2020 11:25 AM

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Bills 18, Jets 10

 

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

 

Six field goals for 18 points…that’s Buffalo’s day in a nutshell here. But did you know PK Tyler Bass was 6 of 8 on FG attempts? The Bills were in scoring position 8 times in this game and couldn’t score…but actually they did they just didn’t count. It’s important to know that because the narrative of this game is – the Bills are frauds and Josh Allen/the offense is crashing to earth. It’s not true. We’ll get into that.

The Jets played a hard-nosed game, but they’re undermanned and lost. You see this as ‘Geez, this was too close. I had Buffalo in my survivor pool, and they gave me a scare all game. They couldn’t score on the Jets? The Bills suck.’

Actually, this was a quality win for Buffalo…because they weren’t playing well early on – they were down 10-0 mid-2nd-quarter. They were down 10-6 at the half. They were down 10-9 late into the 3rd-quarter. But after halftime this defense went into lockdown mode. Sam Darnold was like 1 for 11 at one point in the 2nd-half. They stumbled around but gutted up and grabbed this win that weaker-willed Buffalo teams of the past would have lost.

Buffalo is now (5-2) and they are going to go beat the ever-loving ass out of New England and put the Patriots out of their Cam-misery. Bet Buffalo, lay the -3.5 this week…and then they’ll have a let down vs. Seattle the following week. The Bills have been waiting for this Patriots moment since last year. I don’t think Cam knows what he’s gotten himself into this Week 8.

The Bills schedule after the New England game is not kind. There’s trouble for wins and losses. We still see 9-10 wins and a division title, but we go back to square one if they get beat by Belichick this week…an even race to the finish.

The Jets played as good a game as they could’ve. This Week 7 Jets team/effort could win a game or two before it’s over, but this Week 7 Jets team is not anything to rely on/bank on. Week 9 v. NE might be their shock first win of the season. Most likely, they’re going (0-16).

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- Josh Allen (30-43 for 307 yards, 0 TDs/0 INT, 11-61-0) had no TD passes against the Jets, GASP (sound of pearls clutching)!!! He must secretly suck like we knew all along. He’s back to his old ways!! I should’ve never traded for him weeks ago. I must punish him for his crimes against FF-humanity!!!

You think it’s bad about Josh Allen in the FF-world? My leading email ask player of the week right now is – how to dump Ezekiel Elliott ASAP. Zeke has been on top of the FF world for years and even produces in games where he fumbles nine times, but he had a bad FF game last week so now he must be punished, he must extradited from your fantasy team before the unthinkable happens…he underproduces expectations two weeks in a row!!!

By and large, people in fantasy…they buy high and sell low. We/FFM just don’t knock on enough doors to expose it most times…and then after a failed attempt or two we say the league ‘doesn’t trade’ and stop trying. We should lead the league in rejected trade offers – not trade concepts floated via email, real offers. People are selling Josh Allen (and Zeke Elliott) whether they admit it or not publicly.

Josh Allen completed 69.8% of his above-average 43 pass attempts in this game. He didn’t throw a pick (but he tried too once or twice). He threw for 300+ yards. He rushed for a season 61 yards. He’s not regressing. The Jets are not the worst pass defense in the NFL, not even top 10 worst by QB rating allowed against them. Everything is fine.

BUT HE DIDN’T EVEN THROW FOR A TOUCHDOWN, therefore he sucks.

Allen got the Bills into scoring position 8 times this game…for six of 8 field goals.

Allen threw a 20+ yard TD pass to Gabriel Davis that got called back for a non-impactful penalty. He then threw another 20+ yard TD pass the very next play to Cole Beasley, but Beasley had stepped/got knocked out of bounds and was ruled to have come back in to make the catch. Later in the game, Allen hit Tyler Kroft on the money for an easy 50+ yards score…but as Kroft was racing down the sidelines to free paydirt, he pulled a Daniel Jones and face planted, untouched, halfway into his score. Another ‘no TD’ event that wasn’t Allen’s fault.

If Kroft had stayed on his feet and if the penalty hadn’t been called on the G. Davis TD, Allen would have had 350+ yards passing, 2 TDs, one of them 50+ yards, and he had 61 yards rushing (and 1-2-3 shots at a rushing TD) in this game. What more do you want for FF?

Coming into the game, Allen was 2nd in the league in passing TDs.

What else does he have to do?

I know people…THEY (non-FFMers) listen to analysts, and the analysts are turning on Allen because he’s not winning games and they have been conditioned to not like him as a QB prior. Therefore, THEY are turning on Allen. He’s a fringe QB1 at-best for them…a hot potato they need to get rid before the unthinkable happens…they didn’t sell him off at the peak of his powers back when everyone loved him. The shame and humiliation of Allen being great before and now terrible, it’s too much to bear so they will trade him away no matter what they tell you on how much they love him – they will make the trade if you give them the opportunity.

If you don’t want to believe in Allen it’s OK, but if you think Allen is fading – you’re wrong.

 

 -- I was excited to re-watch this to see the debut of Denzel Mims (4-42-0/7), and…well…not that exciting. But neither was Justin Jefferson’s first 2-3 games. Rookie WRs need a few weeks to get comfortable, especially ones who barely played in training camp due to injury.

We need more time to evaluate Mims, but my first glance – nothing exciting. I didn’t see a reason to write lots of words about the debut. Sam Darnold is a noodle arm and threw some passes clean to Mims and he caught them and got tackled quickly.

Mims did get an end zone shot to enact his specialty of high pointing passes, but Darnold not knowing what I know, somehow, threw a flat pass instead of a looping jump ball and Tre’Davious White ate Mims up for an incompletion.

First viewing of Mims…nothing good/bad to report. Need more time.

 

 -- Who is not good (for FF)…Devin Singletary (8-29-0, 2-18-0/5). He’s got Zack Moss (7-47-0, 3-25-0/3) up his rear now, he’s got a terrible run blocking O-Line, and Josh Allen takes rushing TD chances and doesn’t throw a ton to RBs consistently.

I’m throwing in the towel…whatever that means. He’s an RB3-3.5 who gets decent touches. Latavius Murray gets as good of touches as Singletary in a game (Kamara steals from Latavius, Allen/Moss steal from Devin), and that’s just the first thought RB off the top of my head to compare Singletary for FF right now.

Singletary is talented. Promising results from his rookie season (especially when you consider how his rookie numbers might compare to top rookie picks from this class) but no follow through as Buffalo went smart for the NFL with an RB-duo…but then their O-Line weakened at the same time. I see nothing to get me excited about Singletary for FF short of a Moss injury and gone/out.

 

 -- The Bills’ WR report…

Cole Beasley (11-112-0/12) had a great game because Diggs was double covered a lot and John Brown was out.

When John Brown returns, it further opens this offense for Josh Allen…and Brown will benefit by being the #2 WR for a high functioning passing game.

Gabriel Davis (1-11-0/3) didn’t seize any control of an opportunity to burn Jets CBs. He’s solid but not amazing/going to take over as a starter on purpose anytime soon.

Stefon Diggs (6-48-0/11) mediocre FF game. Gets punished for being with Josh Allen, and the Allen fade, so I’m buying Diggs with two-fists. Diggs-Allen is going to Adams-Rodgers-lite or like. Diggs is a top 5 PPR WR YTD but gets treated like a WR1.5 in the trade market. I will buy it all.

If my 6pts per pass TD/PPR league team was scuffling with like a (2-5) record and was rocking a flimsy QB…I’d try to buy Allen-Diggs and shove all my chips in on them as the most undervalued duo in fantasy.

 

 -- Lamical Perine (11-39-1, 2-16-0/3) looked OK in this game. He ended up playing 40-15 snaps over Frank Gore, so it’s time to take this a little bit more seriously than I have. Still, I’m not really all that interested. I know this is a bad offense/bad O-Line. I don’t want to invest in the mediocre RB from it…but he can have a James Robinson or Myles Gaskin ‘getting touches’ appeal.

Ty Johnson looked so good and promising last week, which means the Jets couldn’t find one carry for him this week. Makes sense…it’s the Jets…it’s the NFL.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

54 = Perriman

48 = Berrios

45 = Mims

12 = Jeff Smith

 

40 = Perine

16 = Gore

 

72 = Diggs

70 = Gab Davis

61 = Beasley

 

40 = Singletary

35 = Moss



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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