2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Lions 23, Falcons 22
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This just felt like a ‘no one wants to win this game’ type of contest between these two…felt it during the live watch Sunday and again on the rewatch. Two mediocre/below average teams duking it out and it came down to bad ref calls and a shocking last second TD pass to take the deserved win away from the Falcons, thus ending their season effectively, and pumping life into the Lions season.
The Lions are now (3-3) and in the playoff race but definitely don’t feel or look like a playoff team, but in 2020 ‘who knows’? If they can beat the Colts this week, they got a shot to get to (8-8)/(9-7) with their schedule ahead. Something tells me they lose this week and then 5-6-7 wins is more the right projection.
Atlanta blew a golden opportunity. With a win they would have been (2-5) and trying to stay alive…but it’s over. Their schedule after their Week 10 bye is so brutal, they’re smart to just cash out before the trade deadline…and the rumor mill is already buzzing. We could see 2-3-4 Falcons dealt this next week…as ATL ends up a 3-4 win team this season in the end.
Fantasy Player Notes
-- I guess D’Andre Swift (9-27-1, 4-21-0/5) is the Lions main RB now…a strong RB2 for fantasy ahead?
Swift dominated their first scoring drive with 4 carries for 27 yards, including a nice 3-yard TD run. I was thinking Swift was going to have a huge game with the early production against a really good v. the run ATL defense.
Swift saw 5 carries for 2 yards the rest of the game.
10 +/- carries and 3-6 catches a game is where he is headed, and is the team’s best goal line back because everyone knows if AP is in they’re not likely throwing the ball.
Swift is a strong/stable play for FF ahead in PPR especially.
-- A tale of two TEs who had good output from this game…
1) T.J. Hockenson (5-59-1/6) took advantage of a terrible-against-the-TE defense by Atlanta. TJH is still a lump of nothing to me as an NFL receiving talent. Just plays a lot of snaps and is there for things. If the Lions never got a shot at that late game TD pass (to TJH) then it’s another useless game by the Hock for FF.
2) Hayden Hurst (6-68-0/7), however, is showing signs of an upswing. 50+ yards in a game in three of his last 4 games. 3 TDs in his last 6 games, and no TD here but was wide open for a 22-yarder but Matt Ryan threw the ball 6 inches too far for Hurst to grab.
Hurst is a for-sure stable TE1…Hockenson is a random TE1 if he can get a TD.
-- Russell Gage (6-54-0/7) is perking back up again. After a hot start to the season he cooled way off Weeks 3-5, but is averaging 5.0 rec. (5.5 targets), 59.5 yards, 0.0 TDs per game the past two games under Raheem Morris.
Not anything hot for FF but is rising back up as an option/on-the-radar in deeper leagues/PPR.
-- Had Matt Stafford (25-36 for 340 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) not gotten the ball back with one minute left, he would have logged ANOTHER under 300 yards passing game and he would have had NO TD passes here…in a game vs. a weak ATL pass defense.
Stafford is a back-end QB2 nowadays. What a terrible decline from his stellar 2019 pace.
-- DET DE Romeo Okwara (3 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 3 QB hits) is on fire as of late.
In his last 4 games, he’s averaging: 2.5 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 1.0 TFLs, and 2.5 QB hits per game. He IS the Lions’ pass rush now. Against Indy this week is not favorable for sacks, but then MIN-WAS-CAR-HOU-CHI after that has promise for him to keep up his sack pace.
Snap Counts of Interest:
53 = Gurley
17 = Br Hill
59 = Julio
58 = Ridley
25 = Br Powell
24 = Gage
28 = Swift
19 = AP
14 = Kerryon