2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Packers 35, Texans 20
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This game was over pretty much when it started. It was 21-0 at the half, and 28-7 going into the 4th-quarter. Houston scored a late garbage TD to make a bit closer than it was. Green Bay was cruising, toying with Houston when they wanted to.
Green Bay is now (5-1), as they beat another patsy team. Green Bay’s regular season schedule has been awesome for two seasons now. The schedule is set up for Green Bay to get to 12-13 wins…and home field advantage for them would be huge with the weather.
Houston mails in another loss. They’re now (1-6) and the schedule might have them win a few games ahead, but it’s probably too far gone to get back into a playoff race. They could win their next 3-4 in-a-row and make things interesting – at JAX, at CLE, NE, at DET. It’s a favorable stretch but likely Houston is not strong enough to take advantage and will probably sell off players next week anyway. 6-7 wins is possible for the Texans with a little luck.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Whaddya know? Aaron Jones out…and Jamaal Williams (19-77-1, 4-37-0/5) has a Jones-like game/output. All the #1 RBs of note going into their free agent/final season got big new deals…but not Aaron Jones. I don’t think he’ll be back with the Packers, for fiscal reasons on top of most RBs could come in and do what Jones does.
A.J. Dillon (5-11-0) being drafted was probably part of that not seeing Jones as worth the price in the future idea. AJD got some extra work here with Jones out, but he didn’t do much with it. He looks very erratic, lost, rookie-like still. Nothing impressive on tape yet at the NFL level. When the Packers lead got larger and larger…Jamaal stayed in. Expect heavy Jamaal this week if/with Jones out.
-- I wanted to see how close to normal Robert Tonyan (2-32-0/2) was moving around like after spraining his ankle last week and playing through it but missing multiple practices for rehab leading up to Week 7’s game.
1) Tonyan looked pretty normal. Had a nice diving catch in the game. I didn’t see any hobbling, slowing.
2) The Pack got up big and throttled back his snaps a little bit, smartly. No reason to have him push it for no reason.
This week we’ll see if Tonyan is more 100%/practicing and has a better FF game.
-- David Johnson (14-42-0, 4-42-1/4) saw a season high 4 targets!!!! How smart!!! If you think Houston figured out the most obvious thing in the world (DJ is a receiving gem of gems at RB in the NFL), then you would be wrong. His passes came mostly in the big deficit and after Deshaun Watson was searching elsewhere downfield but was flushed quickly and settled or desperately went to an/any open man (DJ).
When Watson drops back to pass, and some QBs are like this, he has no predisposition or real awareness of the RB as a slick check down option – whereas like Drew Brees or Philip Rivers are just setting you up looking downfield and then they quick dump it…they’re aware of it at all times as the safest throw, and with D.J. it would be a 225+ pound block of granite out in space…but who wants that? We need more up the middle runs with DJ! I don’t believe Houston figured out anything on DJ in the passing game here…just random bump in targeting because of the deficit.
Trade him as you need to…he’s just another 12-16 carries for low ypc (because his O-Line stinks) and 1-2 catches per game, and you hope he scores a TD. He will score 10 TDs this season, and thus be a solid RB2, near RB1 in raw tally of FF points.
-- Allen Lazard (DNP) is back practicing this week and might be active for Week 8, but I’d guess more Week 9 for his activation from core muscle surgery.
Thinking about getting him ahead of time? A nice #2 TD producer across from Davante Adams ahead? Makes sense.
However, what worries me is the Packers are looking for WRs to add before the trade deadline…specifically Will Fuller (3-35-1/6), who Jaire Alexander shutdown mostly in this game. Fuller would just muddy this whole thing up for Lazard, who will have a tough enough time getting good touches with just he and Adams (since Adams gets 117 targets a game with Rodgers).
The Packers seem bent on adding a WR, which is smart…but it doesn’t help the Lazard story for 2020 ROS.
-- I could see the Texans trading Brandin Cooks (7-60-0/9) and/or Randall Cobb (8-95-0/10) as well.
Cobb back to Green Bay seems to make a ton of sense, no?
Cobb has 5.7 catches for 53.0 yards, and 0.33 TDs per game his last 3 games. As the Texans get down/can’t stop anyone, so their passing game numbers are climbing in garbage/hurry up…good for Watson, good for Cobb, and good for Cooks, who has been FF-amazing the past 3 games with 8.0 rec., 96.3 yards, 0.67 TDs per game.
Since Week 5, Cooks is the #7 WR in PPR PPG.
-- GB rookie UDFA LB Krys Barnes (8 tackles, 1.0 sacks) has had a surreal run of tackles per snap played this season.
168 snaps played, 43 total tackles…a tackle every 3.91 snaps played. And it’s not just one big game/outlier driving the numbers.
A typical amount of snaps for a player to play the entire game is around 60-65 or so. Barnes’s season pace would project 15 +/- tackles in a 60-snap effort game.
Barnes played 40% of the snaps here…fighting a shoulder injury, leaving the game early. He was on pace for over 18 total tackles through fuzzy math.
Barnes has started the last 4 games, but only played close to a full game once (Week 6, 10 tackles). He was a rotational LB at first, then a Week 6 real starter, but got hurt late and left and is fighting that injury still.
I keep mentioning him because his internals/metrics for tackles is amazing, but he hasn’t had a chance to get consistency yet. If he does, this could be a ‘wow’ for IDP.
-- The Green Bay Packers-DST is starting to get my attention for FF…in a look/search through the bottom tier/unclaimed DSTs in many leagues.
I’m looking at that Week 10-15 stretch that keeps getting more favorable as we go…
Week 10 = v. JAX…with Minshew dying, along with the team.
Week 11 = at IND, Rivers highly turnover prone
Week 12 = v. Foles, the bad Bears running game
Week 13 = v. Philly’s corrupted O-Line.
Week 14 = at DET is solid
Week 15 = v. CAR…not so bad, and in the cold likely.
Six games, four in colder weather potentially (to their favor)
Week’s 8-9 with MIN minus Cook, maybe, and at SF without Mostert and Deebo, maybe – GB might not be so bad now right through it? In a deep sleeper, semi-desperate way?
Snap Counts of Interest:
54 = Dav Johnson
20 = Duke J
55 = Jamaal W
14 = AJ Dillon
31 = Tonyan
31 = M Lewis
20 = Sternberger