2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 8 Game Analysis: Raiders 16, Browns 6
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I saved this one for the last of the week to rewatch/study. Why? The game was played in a crazy wind gust situation which put a damper on all the passing games and made this a conservative heavy run effort. It wasn’t a normal or real FF event, per se.
The Raiders played tougher in the cold…odd to say about a Western team going East to cold/blustery Cleveland, but the Raiders were the tougher squad. The Raiders gritted it out and got the lead and never relented. It shows me again how underrated/good/sound/tough the Raiders are and how sad sack the Browns are. With this weather, the Browns had to take advantage…they didn’t.
Las Vegas is now (4-3) and will be a playoff team…we just don’t know how high a wild card. We still see them with 9-10 wins, and 11 wins possible. They are one of the better teams in the NFL that gets no credit.
The Browns continue to plummet back to earth…now (5-3) and losers of two of their last 3 games. What was thought to be signature wins against Dallas and Indy, were wins against pumped up by the media teams that aren’t very good. The Browns have faced three good teams this year, BAL-PITT-LV…and they have scored 6-7-6 for points in those games. We see 8 wins max. for the Browns right now.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- LV went heavy on Josh Jacobs (31-129-0, 0-0-0/1) in this game, which made sense for the weather and…it’s what the Raiders do. However, 31 carries…and no TDs and no catches. The JJ pain continues.
Since Week 2 (Wks2-8), Jacobs is the #25 RB in PPR PPG in Fantasy…behind David Montgomery, Darrell Henderson, D’Andre Swift, among others. David Johnson, right behind him. It’s just not working well for Fantasy with Jacobs. Lots of touches, not much FF to show for it.
Jacobs has just 2 TDs since Week 2.
He’s posting an anemic 3.6 yards per carry on the season.
He has a low 1.8 yards before contact per rush attempt…when he’s in the game, everyone knows he’s getting the ball, so he’s stacked…he played 48 snaps and carried the ball or saw a target 32 times. 67% odds he’s touching the ball when he’s in.
Devonte Booker (5-29-0, 1-17-0/1) entered the game and looked 2x better, again, and even the TV analysts commented on how good Booker looks. It’s an optical illusion of sorts. Booker does look really good, but the defense changes from ‘stacking’ when Booker is in. They shouldn’t, when Booker is in the game this season (69 snaps), he’s carried the ball or been targeted 33 times.
The Raiders are Jacobs-based so heavily, teams play to that and thus try and make Derek Carr beat them on 1st/2nd-down.
All you can with Jacobs is hope the TDs start to come with all the touches. He’s falling into a buy low because YOU (who don’t have him) just remember the 3 TD game in Week 1 and think he’s great/elite – but his real FF-owner is living in a tortured hell they wish to escape on him.
-- Anyone dropping Nelson Agholor (0-0-0/2) because of this game…it’s short-sighted and you should pickup if it makes sense for your roster, especially non-PPR.
His prior three weeks as a starter: 3.7 rec., (5.0 targets), 72.7 yards, 1.0 TDs per game…as the real #1 for the Raiders. Bryan Edwards’ return isn’t going to change that…Edwards lost his window for 2020. I don’t expect Agholor to be a WR1 or anything, but a solid WR2-3 is realistic for the ROS.
All dome or Cali game events from Week 9 to Week 16 except Week 13 at NYJ.
-- Rashard Higgins (1-14-0/3) got given up on because of this game result too. Again, the weather conditions made this game ‘not real’ or ‘should be ignored’ for FF. Higgins can be a WR3 in PPR with Baker, as his new #1-ish WR.
One of the issues ahead is – the weather for CLE is much worse than compared to what LV/Agholor is getting. Nothing but cold/weather risks ahead for CLE/Higgins except Week 12 at JAX.
-- Trade deadline came and went, and the great David Njoku (1-19-0/3) is still a Brown. Austin Hooper could be back Week 10. All adding up to – the Harrison Bryant (3-25-0/3) blip is likely gone. Came and went.
-- Speaking of that weather for LV, I’ve mentioned it earlier in the week, but Daniel Carlson (3/4 FGs) is kicking in a dome or Cali in seven of the next 8 weeks. According to Yahoo numbers, he’s still available in 59% of leagues.
He’s the #3 PK in FF scoring per game right now.
Notable FFM kickers in scoring per game, by rank…
Koo = #1
Tucker = #2
Lutz = #4
Butker = #16
One of those facts is scary…
Snap Counts of Interest:
39 = Bryant
29 = Njoku
42 = Hunt
06 = D’Ernest
56 = Agholor
54 = Ruggs
15 = Renfrow