2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 9 Game Analysis: Bills 44, Seahawks 34
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Well, well, well…
Two inconvenient truths here.
1) The Buffalo Bills are better than the Seattle Seahawks. Not just because they won this game…they were just better anyway, and you could see it this season playing out…but proved it with a convincing win here.
2) Josh Allen 2020 > Russell Wilson 2020.
You’ll buy #1 before you’d ever entertain my #2. If you don’t think it’s true – you didn’t watch this game, nor this season. More on these two in a moment.
Buffalo pretty much dominated Seattle from the jump…24-7 Buffalo at one point in the 2nd-quarter. 41-20 Buffalo with 9+ minutes left but Seattle scrambled for 17 points late to make the game seem closer than it was. It wasn’t this close. Buffalo swarmed Russell Wilson on the pass rush and just blanketed their receivers. It was Buffalo’s best game of 2020…Josh Allen is better than Russell Wilson…and Sean McDermott is 10x the coach Pete Carroll is…and Buffalo winning here was cosmic justice.
The Bills are now (7-2) and headed towards the AFC East title. They should finish with 11-12 wins and Week 17 vs. Miami should not matter for the AFC East title…if it does, for some reason, the Bills will consume Tua.
Seattle is starting to crash back to earth…losers of two of their last 3 games. They are (6-2) but lucky to not be (4-4) at this stage. Fortunately, for them, the rest of the NFC West lost so Seattle is still likely to win the NFC West but Arizona and the Rams are still viable to overtake Seattle, especially Arizona (who has already booked a win over Seattle). We see Seattle finishing (11-5) due to a very easy schedule Weeks 12-15, where the literally have all four NFC (L)East teams in a row.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Russell Wilson (28-41 for 390 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs) is a great NFL QB, maybe the best in-game, clutch QB in the league today, but Josh Allen (31-38 for 415 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, 7-14-1) is just playing better overall in 2020. Not because of this one game…it’s been true all year, but most of us (used to be me) think Allen is not that good, because of his previous seasons. I don’t know if he took some special potion or sold his soul to the devil or what this offseason, but I’ve never seen a QB go from shaky/OK to great in one big leap and sustain it. All the great QBs of this day (Mahomes, Kyler, Dak, Russell, Rodgers, etc.), I saw the potential for it in their college scouting…saw some flaws but saw the star potential to varying degrees…but did not with Allen. Wrote him off with impunity. His first two seasons kinda confirmed my initial diagnosis. What he’s been doing in 2020 is Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert like – just flat-footed in dirty pockets making frozen rope throws on the money all season.
For the umpteenth time this season, I’ll say it…this Josh Allen thing is no fluke. It’s deadly serious. Many of you bought into him for deep discounts the past few weeks, and ‘here you go’…your reward Week 9. Finally, a game not in the rain for Allen, and facing a terrible pass defense – and he did what elite QBs are supposed to do in these situations.
The lone FF-problem for Allen is the late season weather, always a factor with Buffalo. No schedule real break here as we hit December. Week 13 at SF is a weather break maybe, and then you have to hope it’s not too bad at home Weeks 12 and 14, and at DEN Week 15, and at NE Week 16. The good news on that is -- Allen is built for the bad conditions…he strong arms it through the wind and can run for FF goodness if it’s too sloppy otherwise.
Russell Wilson has a bit of weather to deal with potentially. Week 12 at PHI, Week 15 at WSH…Weeks 13-14, 16 at home is usually OK in Seattle but not perfect.
-- As goes Josh Allen, so goes his #1-2 WRs…
Stefon Diggs (9-118-0/12) has been excellent, and FINALLY John Brown (8-99-0/11) got to play a game healthy and not in the rain, and a great matchup.
Diggs is always a WR1 here. Brown could be a solid WR2 ahead (as I’d been chasing for 3-4 weeks back), but I want to see a follow up performance in a dome against ARI Week 10, a mild revenge game for Brown to know he’s all good to trust.
-- You’d think it’d all be gravy for the Seattle #1-2 WRs, but it’s not.
It is for D.K. Metcalf (7-108-1/9)…the best FF WR with Tyreek and Davante. It’s Tyler Lockett (4-40-0/7) that has gotten weird.
Week 7, Lockett had that 15-200-3/20 game, but do you realize what he has done his last 4 games (ignoring Week 7) aside from that?
3.5 rec. (5.3 targets), 36.5 yards, 0.0 TDs per game…that’s a disaster.
Lockett has had two monster games since Week 3, and four WR4 performances otherwise. In those 4 games he hasn’t hit over 45 yards in any of the contests. What do you do with him Week 10? I think you have to keep Flexing him and hoping one of the big pops is coming…there’s too much passing going on not to have hope in Seattle with Lockett.
In the same span as Lockett’s last 4 games (ignoring Week 7), David Moore (4-71-1/6) has had three games over 50 yards and scored a TD in three of his last 5 games. Moore is starting to be a viable option over Lockett recently. Maybe Moore is the answer…or the reason Lockett is sinking?
-- The Bills decided to attack Seattle with an all-pass effort the first 2+ quarters of this game. When they tried to salt the big lead to the finish, it was Zach Moss (9-18-1, 2-30-0/2).
This backfield is kinda like a worse version of what’s happening in KC and TB…in Buffalo, when Devin Singletary (2-1-0, 3-33-0/3) was without an injured Moss earlier this season, Singletary was an RB2-3 producer. Buffalo doesn’t feature the run, and I think McDermott sees what Allen is doing and he’s riding what works.
So, what happens to Moss-Singletary when you split general RB2.5-3.0 work? You’re lucky to get two RB3s…more it’s two RB3.5s.
Moss is moving to a 50/50 split of snaps/touches now, and he has scored 3 TDs the past two weeks to prop his FF scoring up…but it’s dullsville otherwise with him. You have to sell him off ASAP in redraft. He’ll get no hotter (unless Singletary gets hurt, and even then Moss will be an RB2.5 at best. Without the TDs…Moss’s numbers are a dud like many other good RBs getting 7-10 touches a game and little of it passing game work – all you can do is pray for a TD.
-- D.J. Dallas (7-31-1, 2-8-0/2) has been better in his two emergency starts than Singletary or Moss have been in any back-to-back games this year. Dallas is getting the full run of the backfield due to injury, and he’s doing a solid job with it.
The moment Carson or Hyde are back…it’s over for Dallas for now. But we might get one more week out of DJD, if Carson takes another week off. We’ll know later this week.
-- Two IDPs to point out…
New SEA DE Carlos Dunlap (5 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 3.0 TFLs) splashed in his debut. He’s in a good spot to be the main pass rusher for this team and pace for 10+ sacks in a season type of work here. And Dunlop has been a producer for years.
BUF LB A.J. Klein (5 tackles, 1.0 TFLs, 2.0 sacks, 4 QB hits, 1 PD, 1 FF) has been filling in nicely for Matt Milano, who is now on I.R.
The past 4 games, with Milano out, Klein has averaged 5.3 total tackles, 1.3 QB hits, 0.6 sacks, 0.3 FF.
-- The Bills defense really dominated Russell Wilson for about 3.25 quarters, then Wilson went nuts with the all-pass against a prevent comeback attempt.
Sean McDermott may be the best defensive mind in the game. He’s getting key defenders back healthy bit-by-bit. They’ve been dominant in the past but not even close this year. I see their DST tide is turning a bit.
There may be a window with them Weeks 13-16: at SF, PIT, at DEN, at NE… the three road games could be against Mullens, Lock, Stidham.
Snap Counts of Interest:
38 = Moss
31 = Singletary
27 = Kroft
25 = Knox
14 = Gillam
31 = Hollister
26 = Olsen
21 = Dissly
31 = Homer
20 = Dallas
13 = A Collins