2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 9 Game Analysis: Patriots 30, Jets 27
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I thought the Jets might pull the upset here going into this game. Jason Katz and I spoke of it on Sunday morning…not a guarantee, but that we were worried about taking the Patriots in a survivor pool over the Jets.
The reason for my fears on this game…
1) The Jets are not the laughingstock they are portrayed to be. They are not good. They have issues, but they are playing harder than a lot of other teams – and they are going to win at least one game this year, if not two. But I’d set the over/under at 1.5 wins.
2) The Patriots are playing worse football than the Jets. Let that sink in. The Patriots have better players and coaches, but the Pats have a lot of injuries and a lot of players who opted-out before the season, and some seem to be opting-out in-season/in-game. The Jets are playing with more passion than the Patriots right now…and Cam Newton is killing the Patriots. He’s a waste. This win staves off a huge backlash ending Cam’s Patriots career – I believe, had the Jets won this game…Cam would’ve been cut the next day. Now, with the win, the Patriots hold delusions of being ‘in it’ for the playoffs.
I never want to bury a Belichick team too early, but I’m already shoveling the dirt. This team is going to finish with 5-6 wins and when Belichick realizes it’s over, a lot of players might be about to get cut in the next few weeks and a lot more ‘names’ cut and traded next preseason.
As far as this game goes…the Jets had it won, but they are the Jets, so they blew it in epic fashion. The worst final 5-7 minutes of football in the 2020 season…when they played a really nice first 50+ minutes. It’s a shame, but I think the Jets fans and management are breathing a sigh of relief – because they want to lose and tank for Trevor.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- This game, for me/my notes, was mostly about four WR stories…
1) Jakobi Meyers (12-169-0/14) – did I call this a few weeks ago or what? I was saying Meyers was their new #1 but even I didn’t think we’d be getting 10+ catch games a few weeks later.
Some FFMers were ‘forced’ into rolling with Meyers this week…and that added more wins from certain doom. That’s a good thing. It's funny…Jakobi’s big game turned some losses into wins out of nowhere last night…for the same people who emailed Monday morning to complain they sat D.J. Chark.
It’s never over until the games are finally finished for the week.
Meyers is clearly the Pats #1 WR, even if/when Edelman returns…and whether Cam or Stidham. Meyers was rolling with Stidham a few weeks ago, after Cam started to in the same game. I don’t know that Meyers is the long-term #1. I think he’s more ‘of the moment’, but he’s a professional WR…he’ll have value, but note this is a weak passing game – and Meyers is about to get the star coverage treatment…and Meyers is a bit limited as an athlete, but very good technical WR. His upside is a bit capped…but it’s hot right now.
2) Denzel Mims (4-62-0/8) – I never thought Jakobi Meyers would be the lead story where I was going to talk nice about Mims…but, hey, welcome to 2020.
What I want to convey on Mims…
What I think I’m seeing is the same thing I saw with Justin Jefferson out of the gates in 2020. A solid-looking, nondescript-acting WR prospect who looked worthy but nothing special. I thought JJ was tentative his first few weeks and I feared he didn’t have the ‘it’/aggression factor…then ‘boom’ Jefferson exploded one week and never looked back. I’m getting the same vibe with Mims…slowly getting up to speed, gaining more confidence, showing tiny flashes. And I know he graded top 5 in our CFM draft grades at WR this season…the talent is there.
Mims has excellent feet, and he looks like he is gliding in and out of his routes…but he’s still not dominating coverage or being overly aggressive. He still has that first month of high school as a freshman appearance…still a little unsure but getting more comfortable with his surroundings. Jefferson did the same and then a switch flipped, and he never looked back. Is Mims about to go there? Also, good news…the QBs (Flacco or Darnold) have been getting him the ball/forcing it to him some. A good sign.
Is Mims going to pop like Jefferson? Probably not…only because we got Flacco-Darnold working it. However, with Jamison Crowder (2-26-1/2) getting top coverage attention as well as Breshad Perriman (5-101-2/7) – Mims can operate in the shadows a bit and get up to speed. Mims was getting a lot of good, easy pitch and catch passes to him this game. Mims reminded me of early Jefferson or early Diontae…such gifted feet going at a corner and cutting into a route, but kinda low key/not divas that they can be overlooked…and then ‘boom’ it happens.
I’m betting against a Jefferson-like ‘boom’ here with Mims, but I’m not ruling it out as much as I would have two weeks ago.
3) Breshad Perriman (5-101-2/7) – just posted 2 TDs and 100+ yards on the best coverage the Pats could throw at him with Joe Flacco as the delivery system. That’s not a bad thing.
Perriman is good, but this may be more about the Flacco-Perriman relationship from Baltimore than a true turn. It may be that Perriman is Joe Flacco’s BFF like Jamison Crowder is for Sam Darnold.
But what if Flacco has to start the rest of the season? Then Perriman is for sure in play. If Darnold comes back next week…we have to pause and wonder where he’ll go with Crowder-Perriman-Mims as options…whether there’s enough outside of Crowder.
4) Gunner Olszewski (3-16-0, 1-0-0/1) – the Patriots want Gunner to be a thing, to be the new Edelman. The problem is Tom Brady is gone. We don’t know who the 2021 Patriots QB will be, but Gunner has a shot to be a starter…for those in deep roster Dynasty.
In 2020, no FF chance…Jakobi Meyers is the king.
-- Damien Harris (14-71-0) looked very good again but got hurt late to take away a chance at a 100+ yard game again.
1) Harris is becoming the clear lead for New England, but the lead in NE is still splitting with Rex and White…and who knows about Sony?
2) No targets for Harris. Five games/starts, 2 total targets…just like Sony. You’re getting 10-15 carries and no catches with Harris…this is a PPR problem I don’t think improves over time. J.D. McKissic is going to blow Harris away in PPR right now.
Same issue for J.K. Dobbins or Darrell Henderson, among others it appears.
Sad, but true.
-- Some Jets IDPs catching my attention…
CB Bless Austin (12 tackles, 1 PD), in game he plays 90% of the snaps (6 games so far), is averaging 6.6 total tackles, 0.4 PDs, 0.3 TFLSs per game. He’s the clear starter right now (for now).
Neville Hewitt (7 tackles) is now Gregg Williams’ favorite ILB, and he looks better than I’ve seen him before…slimmer, quicker. He’s averaging 8.2 total tackles per game this season.
Rookie SAF Ashtyn Davis (5 tackles, 1 PD) started for the 2nd week in a row and has 4.5 total tackles per game in two starts. That’s not the great note…those are ‘meh’ tackle counts. The note is – I thought Davis was more of a coverage safety, a little finesse/soft -- but he’s playing like low key Jonathan Abrams (LV) right now…he’s trying to blow up ballcarriers. He looked very aggressive and menacing out there Monday. Get in early on this, in deeper Dynasty, I think his tackle counts are about to rise to 6-7 a game soon.
Snap Counts of Interest:
45 = Perriman
44 = Mims
31 = Crowder
23 = Gore
21 = Perine
02 = Ty Johnson
34 = Rex
28 = D Harris
21 = White