2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Chiefs 48, Raiders 9
This game was 35-0 right before the half, but then Vegas kicked a crucial field goal to cut it to 35-3 at the half. This was never a game. Five turnovers, 4 lost fumbles…the Raiders watched their season slide right down the drain, and any chance the interim head coach had of keeping this job for the future…flushed down the toilet.
The Chiefs are (9-4) and leading the AFC West by a game…over the Chargers, who they play in a huge matchup on TNF this week. Win…and a #1 seed is still possible. Lose…and they are in a dogfight to the finish with LAC for the AFC West title. Win Week 15 and they likely finish (12-5) and a possible shot at a #1 seed over New England or Tennessee. Lose Week 15, and they could wind up (11-6) and possibly a high seed wild card. With their experience, you have to assume they win Week 15 and go on to win the AFC West…but it’s not a given.
The Raiders lose and plummet to (6-7) and last place in the AFC West, but still alive in the wild card. Alive but pretty much dead. Losers of five of their last 6 games and they may lose out to finish (6-11), (7-10) at best and a re-rebuild goes underway in 2022.
There’s not much to take away from this game study – it was over so fast, and players were pulled by KC as they coasted to victory.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Josh Jacobs (9-24-0, 5-46-0/6) fumbled on the first play of this game, and KC scooped and score…setting the tone for this nightmare.
All the Raiders have left is Jacobs at RB, and now Derek Carr is throwing to him a bunch…so he’s a legit option in PPR week-to-week (5.0 rec. per game his last 6 games), as the Raiders slide down a hole and don’t have any other weapons they want to use.
I mention Jacobs here, because he is falling out of favor fast in Las Vegas. 2022 may be his final season there. Jon Gruden desperately, expensively signing Kenyan Drake might have been one of the first signs of concern. Jacobs is losing FF momentum in the public square, and a new head coach might be a problem for him, to a fresh start. He might even be traded this offseason, if they can find a taker.
He went to Alabama, so there will be a taker…but it might be to put him in a split role, not a feature.
-- Mediocre FF-games for the KC-Three (Mahomes-Tyreek-Kelce), but you can blame the game flow getting out of hand for the lack of a need to press numbers.
Patrick Mahomes (20-24 for 258 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) only threw the ball 24 times…the lowest pass attempts ever for him, in a game where he played 90%+ of the snaps. He might have had 400+ yards and 4+ TDs if this was a game, but it wasn’t. Don’t blame him…you just have to ride him if he’s your obvious guy.
Tyreek Hill (4-76-0/4) went along with Mahomes. Tyreek came up gimpy on his last catch and he spent the 4th-quarter mostly out of the game…in this low target/pass attempt affair.
Travis Kelce (3-27-0/4) has the same excuse, but he’s starting to worry me. 1 TD in his last 8 games. Under 10 targets in a game in five of his last 6 games. Suddenly, he’s not getting treated like a star like the past few years. Week 15 v. LAC is a good matchup to rise back, but if he doesn’t…are we nearing an end to the Kelce run? He is 32 years old. He should still have another year or two, but he’s not looking as spry as prior years. All will be forgiven with a big week on TNF this week. Like Mahomes or Tyreek…you just gotta ride it out and do-or-die with these aces.
-- Zay Jones (5-25-0/7) has 7-5-7 for targets in games the past three weeks, as he’s becoming Derek Carr’s favorite WR with Darren Waller out. Still…not a heavy dose of action and still low yardage and no TDs. It’s not a great opportunity, but it’s up off the ground a bit at least.
Darren Waller is not likely to play Week 15, and Foster Moreau is now hurt as well. Zay might get an 8-10 target game Week 15, perhaps…but probably for 40-50 yards and no TDs.
-- Josh Gordon (2-9-1/3) scored a TD…alert the media…he’s back…he’s a star again.
He just got a gimme, cheap short TD toss…and little else, as usual. Nothing developing here.
-- Keep an eye on Malcolm Koonce (1 tackle, 1 sack).
Week 13 = 7 snaps, 1 sack
Week 14 = 15 snaps, 1 sack
A great rookie pass rush prospect getting his first two games of work in 2021…and he should get more opportunity each week. Maxx Crosby has 3.0 sacks in his last 12 games. Koonce has 2.0 sacks in 22 snaps played in 2021.
-- Rookie SAF Divine Deablo (10 tackles) is playing more with the Raiders injuries at linebacker. He started this week and produced nicely…now, back-to-back weeks with heavier snap counts and 10+ tackle counts each game. He probably fades back some when Denzel Perryman is back.
-- The Chiefs defense is on fire…six games in-a-row holding opponents to 17 or fewer points, and in seven of their last 8 games. It hasn’t been a murderer’s row of offenses/QBs, but it’s happening. Week 15 may be a rude awakening vs. Justin Herbert.
Snap Counts of Interest:
44 = Tyreek
40 = Pringle
30 = D Robinson
24 = Gordon
23 = Hardman
23 = D Williams
23 = CEH
20 = Gore
62 = Moreau
01 = Daniel Helm