2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 15: Dolphins 31, Jets 24
I’m not sure how Miami pulled this game out, but they did. The Jets got off to a fast start…clearly the better, more energized team. 10-0 Jets early…17-10 Jets at the half. But then the drops started for NYJ. The Jets protection broke down (6 sacks by MIA) and suddenly the Dolphins took their first lead of the game just into the 4th-quarter, 24-17.
The Jets tied it back up with a pick-six on Tua, but Miami chopped their way back to take the 31-24 lead with 3 minutes left, and the Jets got two possessions in that final span to try and tie/win…but they couldn’t move the against the swarming pass rush of Miami/lack of blocking by the Jets.
Miami wins their 6th in a row (7-7 overall)…(most) all against a who’s who of top of the 2022 NFL Draft/awful NFL teams, but they got the wins and have themselves in the playoff mix. Just when you think their luck will run out…they get the Saints this week with Taysom Hill likely out (along with half their team it seems) with COVID. It’s too big a hill to climb in the AFC wild card standings…Miami needs to win out to have a playoff shot, and then they do have a tiebreaker path to get in over the Chargers if both teams win up with 10 wins. However, we project Miami to finish with an (8-9) record and it not even be a discussion.
The Jets are now (3-11) and have a chance at getting the #1 overall pick with a loss to Jacksonville. Anything is possible, but the Jets should win that game and throw themselves out of the running for the top pick and fall back to a #4-5 pick.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Zach Wilson (13-23 for 170 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs) really looked good to start this game. He is getting better and better every week. I’m starting to see the flashes of a potential future star. He’s finally checking down/taking what the defense gives him…but after a fast, near-dominant start the protection broke down, the drops started happening, 2nd & long, 3rd & long forced Wilson to have to start taking shots downfield to convert drives…but he couldn’t stay in the pocket long enough to let routes materialize due to the mass pass rush pressure, so the whole thing broke down around him in the 2nd-half.
But even within the fall…I see the Wilson growth – not as erratic, not as risk taking, starting to run the ball smart (he has good speed/feet/is elusive). There are signs flashing here. I wonder if the Week 16 Jags v. Jets game will show an up-close view of just how much more talented Wilson is than the generational fraud Trevor Lawrence. It could happen…but the Jets protection is so bad it may hide it from view just yet.
-- It’s not helping Wilson that he has lost all his planned starting WRs at various points this season, but Week 16 is the icing on the cake – Davis-Moore-Crowder all expected to be out Week 16. With all of them out, Braxton Berrios (2-10-1, 1-26-0/1) is the WR that Wilson seems to be most comfortable with. He could have a 10+ target game Week 16 against a mediocre Jaguars pass defense.
Keelan Cole (1-9-0/2) will be his other most comfortable option…facing his old team Week 16, which could be some minor ‘revenge’.
Tyler Kroft (2-35-0/2) is his lone healthy TE threat going into Week 16 as well.
Denzel Mims (0-0-0/3) is not a viable option…Mims has caught/connected on 2 of his last 10 targets this season, as his career destruction continues to unfold.
-- Michael Carter (8-18-0, 1-2-0/2) might miss Week 16 due to COVID…in which case, Tevin Coleman (8-50-0) has some minor RB3 life as the ‘main back’ in lieu of Carter. Ty Johnson was a purposeful inactive this game…that’s how far he’s fallen in the pecking order.
-- It wasn’t Tua Tagovailoa’s (16-27 for 196 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs) best game, but when he’s in the groove this offense is annoyingly good…and you can see that Tua can see options and makes quick choices. However, when Tua gets pressured or gets put in 3rd & longs and has to make a play, he becomes a worry…a random event. Tua looks a lot better this season, for sure…but it’s still filled with flaws, but not as flaw-filled as earlier in the season and all last season. He’s gone from awful-to-not bad.
-- I rewatched this game really focused on Duke Johnson (22-107-2, 1-20-0/1) for obvious reasons…he ran for 100+ yards out of nowhere, he started, and on the live watch he looked pretty impressive in my memory banks. However, watching him more closely here…not that great. Duke is a very limited athlete and wasn’t all that impressive, but the Dolphins stuck with the run game, the Jets are bad at stopping the run, and Myles Gaskin (10-54-0) was just off missing two weeks and they seemed to be bringing him back slower.
I don’t think Johnson has a chance against the Saints Week 16. Gaskin will probably reestablish his lead role, but the Saints run D is a bad matchup for him as well.
-- No Jaylen Waddle, DeVante Parker (4-68-1/8) got the decent FF output here…it didn’t look all that great, but Parker got a late short slant TD catch to put himself over the top. Parker is a WR3 more than WR2 with Tua, with Waddle the PPR WR1 back.
-- The Miami-DST is on a roll, but again…it’s mostly all schedule based. I worried about them vs. Taysom, but vs. Ian Book it will probably be another DST1 week.
Is the Jets-DST an option vs. Jacksonville this week? I mean, better than most Jets-DST weeks but the Jets D is so flawed, and Trevor Lawrence plays it safe to avoid turnovers…it’s something but not obvious. I’d like Atlanta or Chicago as the better hail mary DSTs Week 16.
-- MY MAN Quincy Williams (11 tackles) has averaged 9.5 total tackler per game, when starting/playing 70%+ of the snaps in a game (10 times) this season. That 9.5 tackle pace, if multiplied over the 14 games played so far this season (not the 10 we’re looking at), Quincy would be pacing as a top 5 in the league in total tackles.
What kind of game do you think he’ll have Week 16 vs. the team that screwed him over/cut him, Jacksonville?
Snap Counts of Interest:
65 = Smythe
45 = Gesicki
41 = Duke J
26 = Gaskin
51 = Crowder
43 = Cole
23 = Mims
19 = Berrios
31 = Carter
21 = Coleman
06 = Walter
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
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