2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Jets 27, Titans 24
In this tape study, I was hoping to see a nice step forward by the Jets…their first win, a come from behind gutty win. I like the energy of this Jets team…kudos to Robert Saleh. I want them to move forward.
Is that what I saw on tape? No. Not really.
It’s the same tape every week with the 2021 Jets…the only difference here was they won. They won because Zach Wilson hit a few big play bombs at the right time, and these weak Jets receivers actually caught the passes this time. It’s the same Wilson tape – Brett Favre at his worst (and sometimes best)…erratic, gambling, trying to make plays that are low probability QB play mixed with a really nice-looking defense. I said in my Robert Saleh new hire study – the 1st-time D-C hired, (former NFL player) Jeff Ulbrich, was the better man for the job. He’ll get a job next year with this stunning turnaround of the Jets defense.
The Jets are like playing a slot machine on offense…you’re going to lose overall, but occasionally you’ll pull the handle and win one and it’s sweet. The defense does their best to hold off the opposing offense getting constant drives with good field position (because the Jets O can’t sustain drives and has turnovers) – and they did that here again, shutting down the first three Titans’ drives to field goals and a 9-0 lead…that very easily could’ve been 17 or 21 to nothing right out of the gates. Had the Titans had their starting WRs, it might have been.
I will say, it’s fun to see this Jets team playing with passion – the defense is going 100mph and at all times, while the offense is not just throwing screens all day…Zach Wilson is trying to win the Super Bowl with every throw…to his detriment but you might as well lose in a blaze of glory, not padding your Comp. Pct. stats.
The Titans lost and fell to (2-2), but they’ll be fine. They were injured going into this and unlucky not to have won it easily anyway. The Titans could’ve really put some distance in the AFC South with a win, but they now let the Colts (1-3) have some life. Tennessee should still win the AFC South with 9-10 wins…and everyone else under .500.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The first thing to talk about here is -- that Jets defense. The media and FF analysts are now starting to wake up. We’ve been pointing out the change in the Jets D since Week 1 and projecting them as a matchup to worry about for your opposing WRs and TEs the past two weeks.
The Jets defense has allowed just 2 passing TDs…the lowest in the league.
They are # 5 in sacks so far this season.
They are #2/best in 3rd-down conversions allowed (28.6%).
They are #4 in red zone TDs allowed per trip…a whisker away from #1/best.
Their offense is giving them no help in support…the Jets D is carrying this team. Keeping them in games.
Week 5 they face a weak Atlanta offense missing its #1 WR. Should be a decent FF opportunity for this DST.
Side note: The one flaw to attack on this aggressive Jets defense is the offense using their aggression against them in the form of screen passes/easy throws to the RBs. The Jets have allowed the 2nd-most targets and catches per game to RBs, and the most receiving yards per game to opposing RB groups.
Thus…Jeremy McNichols (8-74-0/12) had a big day as a receiver here.
Thus…our lofty projections on Cordarrelle Patterson all week for Week 5.
-- Jamison Crowder (7-61-1/9) made his 2021 debut here, and it didn’t look great but it was OK. Crowder is a very average WR getting pushed on the Jets for reasons I do not fully understand…one of them is because of how pathetic the Jets WR group has been the last two years.
I guess this is going to work OK going forward because Corey Davis is a terrible #1 WR and Denzel Mims is buried in deep space somewhere not hardly seeing the field, plus they have the worst TE depth chart in football. Wilson has to throw to somebody.
-- The best-looking WR in this game, hands down, was Josh Reynolds (6-59-0/9) …not even close…in a mild shock to me because I thought he was being buried by the Titans coaching staff – for a lingering injury, then some nonsense about him not playing special teams well (which he shouldn’t even be working special teams). He had to play here due to all the WR injuries and he was CLEARLY the best WR on the field between these two teams. I knew he was good, but that’s the best I’ve seen him look.
He’ll likely go back to being buried as A.J. and Julio return, but if Julio doesn’t return…maybe Reynolds can make a statement. He had a very good game here.
-- Zach Wilson (21-34 for 297 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) is making baby step progress every week. He took more checkdowns in this game and landed some of his deep ball shots, but he is still taking to many unnecessary chances downfield…it’s both admirable (he’s going for the jugular not throwing right into triple coverage like they aren’t there) and maddening (because it’s such low probability stuff). He’s such a talent. I wonder if this would have been what Pat Mahomes would’ve been like if thrown into the fire right away as a rookie with crap WRs and no offensive coaching experience anywhere near him?
His one INT was a throw to Corey Davis, who slipped on his break/route and left the ball clean through to the trailing DB. Not Wilson’s fault.
On the other side of the field, watching Ryan Tannehill (30-49 for 298 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) play – he is so good. He’s really developed into one of the best QBs in the NFL. He’s a pleasure to watch now. I’ve learned to appreciate him, not question him.
And in the battle of ‘was it Brady or Belichick?’ = the answer was ‘Brady’ all along.
In the battle of ‘was it Tanny vs. silver-spoon O-C Arthur Smith?’ = the answer was CLEARLY Tannehill. Arthur Smith is a flaming bust head coach who got lucky to be with Tannehill and Derrick Henry.
-- John Franklin-Myers (4 tackles, 1 sack, 2 TFLs, 3 QB hits) had himself a game, and then got a contract extension this week.
Franklin-Myers is averaging 3.8 tackles, 0.67 sacks per game this season to date.
He looks good to me, but I’m never like ‘Wow, what a beast’. He’s good.
Snap Counts of Interest:
50 = Corey Davis
38 = Crowder
36 = K Cole
10 = Mims
09 = Berrios
31 = M Carter
20 = Ty J
11 = T Coleman
81 = Westbrook-Ikhine
78 = J Reynolds
66 = Ch Rogers
25 = Batson