2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Bears 20, Raiders 9
I loved the Raiders to win this game, covering as the favorite. Shows what I know…they got their arses kicked in the worst game they’ve played this season. Credit the Bears…winners of three of their last 4. I’m not a fan of Nagy or this Bears team in general, but I have to give them some credit – they are beating the teams they are supposed to. And this game was a road upset for them.
The Raiders really never showed up, and it was a penalty festival (like most all games Week 5), and most breaks went against LV…and went in favor of CHI -- but Vegas was bad, the Bears were less bad and got the win.
The Bears have a huge home game with Green Bay this week…and no one is giving them much of a chance to win (4.5 point underdogs at home)…but the Packers aren’t as good as people think, and the Bears aren’t as bad as people (including me) think. The Bears defense is playing solid ball and the Packers have multiple O-Line injuries to see how they go throughout the week. If the Pack is missing two OLs again (Jenkins and Myers) then I’ll probably take the home dog with points.
If the Bears beat GB, they pull into a tie for first in the NFC North…and hold the current tiebreaker. Win or loss this week, probably loss, the Bears schedule will eat them up ahead – we project they end up with around 6 wins this season.
The Raiders fell to (3-2) and have now lost their head coach. I’m thinking the loss of Gruden and move to Rich Bisaccia is at worst ‘no difference’ to the team, but I think there’s an upside because Bisaccia is a better coach and communicator than Gruden. I would not be shocked if the Raiders go out and whoop Denver this week and continue with a hopeful run at a playoff spot. We are projecting they will short of the playoffs at 8 wins, but it’s still early/fluid for all our record projections…and we need to see
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- An unusual RB situation for Chicago in this game…one I didn’t fully realize happened. Damien Williams (16-69-1, 2-20-0/3) started and played all the way through the first couple of series. Rookie Khalil Hebert (18-75-0) sprinkled in after that…but then as the game went on, we saw more and more Herbert.
At first, I thought it was to give Williams a break…but then it became clear they were splitting. To start the 2nd-half, Herbert started as they exchanged the two RBs in and out all the rest of the game.
If you only watched the 1st-half, you’d think Williams was the clear main role starter. If you watched the 2nd-half only, you’d think Herbert was the lead in a 60/40 split.
Best way to describe the Chicago RB situation…it’s a 50/50-ish split of some kind between Williams/Herbert…on a team that will run the ball a lot because they have to.
In the end, in this game…
34 snaps = Herbert
31 snaps = Dam. Williams
-- The Bears have to run the ball a lot because Justin Fields (12-20 for 111 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 3-4-0) is not ready yet (and may never be close to the guy they hope). This was a pretty sad game, another in a string, for Fields. They are basically having to game plan around his inability to throw passes like a real NFL QB.
Most all his passes are forced to his first read, and then the throws vary from ‘off’ to ‘way off’. He’s playing like a rookie, a poorly coached one. A heavy run game is the Bears only hope…run game and defense.
And Fields hasn’t been a threat to run…he looks tentative to run…and when it is a designed run play, he looks ‘small’/thin and easy to tackle. He’s not scaring anyone with his feet.
-- Because Fields is so bad, Allen Robinson (4-32-0/5) is, and has been, an FF-dud all season. Doomed to be a WR3-4 with Fields. I love Darnell Mooney (3-35-0/5), but this exactly why I didn’t draft him in redraft and traded him as hot as I could in Dynasty this August…he’s wonderful, and he has a decent connection with Fields, but Fields is so rough right now you can’t use the WRs with any FF confidence.
Neither are worth buying low on because their current owners are probably:
1) Close to cutting Mooney, and
2) Still adore the ARob name so they hope he’ll turn vs. trading as a WR3-4. Tim Patrick is a better name to own than Allen Robinson, and Patrick is often on waivers right now.
-- Speaking of useless WRs…
I love Bryan Edwards (2-22-0/5) but he continues to get random, low targeting…and then in his game he dropped a leaping 20+ yard TD that could’ve juiced his visibility with the team. Then in the 2nd-quarter comeback effort he dropped a wide-open 40+ yard bomb right in his hands, but he looked to see where the defense was and took his eye off the ball.
Of course, he made a couple nice/clutch grabs late in the 4th-quarter but not enough to make up for the other issues.
Tim Patrick is working nicely. Bryan Edwards is not. I’ve decided to make Tim Patrick the litmus test of WRs this week, for some reason.
-- Since Week 2 (Wks2-5), Darren Waller (4-45-0/8) is the #10 PPG PPR TE in Fantasy…behind David Njoku, Hunter Henry, and Mike Gesicki. Yet, every Knox or Schultz owner is dying to trade them + something to get Waller. You shouldn’t. I don’t think it’s a blip…I think Waller is good-not-great for FF in Vegas. If he were with the Chargers, he’d be more awesome. With Vegas…a nice TE1, with 10-15 other TEs claiming the same week-to-week.
You’re holding onto that opening week MNF game for Waller too much. Cleanse your soul.
Things may change with the new coach, we’ll see.
-- The Raiders started Amik Robertson (7 tackles) at CB this game, and he was not good at that…but was good for IDP tackles…7 tackles in each of his last two games. He’s probably not long for the world of starting CBs, however.
-- The Bears-DST is getting better…
#7 in NFL PPG allowed
#12 rushing yards allowed
#12 in passing yards allowed
#8 in total yards allowed
#1 in sacks
#5 in DST scoring
They held down CIN, DET, LV this season. They got popped by CLE, LAR. They are flowing with the quality of opponent. The rankings look great, but I’m not fully buying it at this point.
Snap Counts of Interest:
46 = Jacobs
12 = Drake
51 = Kmet
25 = Jimmy Graham (still in the NFL, FYI)
34 = Herbert
31 = Dam Williams