2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Falcons 27, Jets 20
The Falcons were up 17-0 early 2nd-quarter…the beneficiaries of some fortuitous penalties and just raw Patterson and Pitts domination. It was 20-3 at the half, Atlanta…the Falcons looked OK, and the Jets couldn’t get out of their own way. But then the Jets mounted a comeback…cutting the lead to 20-17 mid-4th-quarter but the Falcons responded with a TD on the next series and withstood the Jets ‘hurry up’ flurry in the end for the victory.
Atlanta wasn’t overly impressive, but they were better, more sound series to series than the erratic Jets. Atlanta is that dumb Washington game ending in Week 4 away from a three-game win streak (but they’re close to being 0-5 as well). I don’t know how they’ve nearly won 3 in a row…because the Falcons are awful. But they’ve gotten an easy schedule the last 3 weeks…and it continues ahead with Miami Week 6.
If the Falcons beat Miami Week 6, people will think they’re ‘fixed’, but they are not. They’re winning games because of Cordarrelle Patterson and taking advantage of an easy schedule. We project the Falcons to finish with 5-6 wins.
The Jets…they aren’t learning or getting better. Zach Wilson is still taking too many risks, which is admirable at times but unnecessary at others. That’s a sign of the coaches not getting through to him. You’d think Wilson would be improving in this area, but he’s really not. He’s been better than his way-too-flamboyant 4 INT game vs. the Patriots, he’s starting to check down to RBs a bit more…but he still tries to gun it like Ricky Bobby’s dad in a racecar as soon as the Jets are down. Wilson is coachable, I believe, so the fact that they aren’t reeling him in is a concern – a concern that the staff isn’t managing the problem. I can’t believe Wilson just goes rogue. He’s not that kinda player.
The Jets have a solid+ defense and an erratic offense…one that the too young/too inexperienced brother of Saleh’s BFF is taking major heat for. And it’s probably part of the overall Jets-O problem. Wilson needs guidance/a slap but more so the young O-C as well needs help…not a good combination of needs, and no one to really help fix it right now.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- We should start with Kyle Pitts (9-119-1/10)…
I’m not sure if this was a breakout…not leading the concept/idea/thought one way or the other. I mean…I truly don’t know.
I’m not seeing ‘dominant’ with Pitts yet, but the potential problem is – he’s so smooth it doesn’t look like he’s trying but he’s just better than everyone with ease. Or is he still tentative or restricted? He’s not ‘obvious’ (to me) watching him…not like how much better Javonte Williams is than Najee Harris at a glance. Not like how different in movement/skills Kadarius Toney is than Ja’Marr Chase.
With that, what I see…
Pitts is not getting open like a dominant stud. He’s usually tightly covered and needs a great throw for him to go get. The good news is…Ryan is putting it near him more, and Pitts has a superhuman ability to just snatch passes in a crowd…so, Pitts just need targets -- and he can do the rest from there. But I wish he was just beating the pants off of coverage, but he is not. In college he did. His feet were amazing. I haven’t seen him open it up in the NFL much.
Additionally, I don’t see any innovative ways they are using Pitts, but this game, without Ridley, they forced Pitts targets…finally. Will they keep it up when Ridley returns? I do not know. At least this game established…Ryan can trust Pitts in real games. He hasn’t been that to Ryan prior.
The good news = Pitts showed us why we should be excited.
The maybe-bad news = We don’t know if this keeps up when Ridley is back.
Arthur Smith has shown me NOTHING as an offensive guru, so I am worried that this keeps up…and that Smith will ever get Pitts working in unique ways anytime soon.
-- I don’t feel like the Falcons are working to or as desperate to use Pitts as they are Cordarrelle Patterson (14-54-0, 7-60-0/9)…and that’s why I’m encouraged but cautious on Pitts enthusiasm. However, I have had no such fears about CP…even as every single NFL and FF analyst stoked the fear of ‘low snap counts’ and ‘this can’t keep up’ last week – I chose to take the lesser travelled path of…’look at the upside when his snaps go up’. They had to go up, CP was playing too well not to see more work.
In this game…
CP played a season high 59% of the snaps here. Mike Davis (64%)
CP took a season high 14 carries.
CP saw a season high 9 targets.
CP threw a season high one pass (incomplete).
This week will be full of ‘but that’s because Ridley was out’. I’m not listening to THEM on Patterson. Why should I? They’ve been wrong or ignorant of it all along.
Patterson is the current #2 RB in PPR PPG…just behind Derrick Henry.
Patterson is the current #3 WR in PPR PPG…just behind Tyreek Hill and Cooper Kupp.
If it all ended today…we couldn’t complain with what we got so far, but I think: https://youtu.be/lkjXcRLNZHQ?t=15
-- Some detailed football analysis from a pro at this: All the Jets WRs suck.
Corey Davis (4-45-0/7) is as bad a #1 WR as there is in the league.
Jamison Crowder (4-24-0/6) stuck in mud for speed.
Keelan Cole (2-38-00/3) and Denzel Mims (2-33-0/3) are their best options, but neither hardly play/see targets enough.
I want nothing to do with this offense except using Michael Carter (10-38-1, 3-20-0/3) in a pinch if I need bye week help or an emergency start for injury.
Wilson is barely throwing TD passes as it is…so, not much juice for these WRs anyway.
-- Not for nothing, I know Kyle Pitts is the man and all…but have you noticed Hayden Hurst (4-40-1/5) has been involved a little bit? 4 catches in each of his last two games. Three 4 catch games so far this season playing about 50% of the snaps.
-- I’ve been slamming Matt Ryan (33-45 for 342 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) all season for looking terrible, which he does to me…he’s a bottom 10 QB to my eye…but he’s caught some fire with the easier schedule = 8 TDs/0 INT and 275+ pass yards per game the last 3 weeks. Cord Patterson is really helping Ryan’s numbers.
The good times for Ryan should be ending ahead: MIA-CAR-NO the next 3 weeks.
-- I’m still a believer in Zach Wilson (19-32 for 192 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT) but only for Dynasty…only as a #3-4 QB investment. He has almost no value now in the real world. He’s not getting any better in 2021 with this O-Line and these WRs. He may get a bit better but as for using him for FF for any reason…it’s gonna be awhile.
-- The Jets defense got thumped early, but then bowed up and kept the Jets in the game…like they do every week. It’s an emerging, tough group…but not elite…and no offensive support.
Except in an obvious situation…you can’t trust them. Weeks 11-16 is interesting, however: MIA-HOU-PHI-NO-MIA-JAX.
Snap Counts of Interest:
50 = Mk Davis
46 = CPatt
03 = Gallman
54 = Pitts
43 = Hurst
34 = Lee Smith
29 = Carter
22 = Ty J
05 = Tevin C
45 = Corey Davis
34 = Crowder
31 = Keelan Cole
08 = Mims
06 = Berrios