2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Saints 33, Football Team 22
Wow…it was such a treat to watch the Browns-Chargers game Week 5. A thing of beauty. Art in the form of football. So, with the Yin and Yang of life…I also had the pleasure of getting to watch this football abomination.
Two of the worst QBs in football ‘slugging it out’…neither hitting above 50.0% completions. Two guys just throwing passes up for grabs -- and Winston’s landed more than Heinicke’s. That’s about the extent of this game.
Washington had so many coverage errors capped by allowing a Hail Mary TD at halftime where the guy who caught the TD was wide open in a pile…and two other receivers next to him could’ve caught it wide open too. It was the worst Hail Mary coverage in the history of football (hey, let’s all go to the end zone and form a socially distanced circle around the receivers and watch them catch a Hail Mary as if they were fair catching a punt)…that play was the Washington Football Team 2021 in a nutshell. They are falling apart. The schedule is about to send them in a major losing streak/stretch. They are (2-3) now…they’ll end up with 4 wins if they’re lucky by season’s end.
The Saints are really good, but like Carolina…their suck-QB takes a division winning roster down to a fringe wild card team. New Orleans is now (3-2), and we’re tracking them for 8-9 wins in the end…battling Carolina for a wild card most likely.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Saints weapons thoughts…
Jameis Winston (15-30 for 279 yards, 4 TDs/1 INT) has the lowest amount of pass attempts and passes completed of any starting QB who has played 5 games. His problems are all the receiving weapons problems for FF.
Marquez Callaway (4-85-2/8) was the recipient of the 49-yard Hail Mary …otherwise, 3-36-0/7 for the game on purpose…a nothing stat line, like most every game this season. Callaway is such a nice interior route worker and timing pass guy…but Jameis is bombs and bubbles, so Callaway cannot evolve for FF…but if you can get a Hail Mary every week…
Michael Thomas (DNP) could be back soon…or not. But he’d probably walk right into the role Callaway has, and as noted prior – not Winston’s best style of game. You’re not getting Michael Thomas 2019 with Brees upon a Thomas return. Thomas may lay out longer…he may be traded. He’s not bad to add this week if your redraft league forgot about him…he’s eligible to come back Week 7. He’s a trade chip on the hype of a return. Mostly, he’s rostered as people sat and waited for 2019 Thomas+Brees but are going to get rusty 2021 Thomas+Winston instead.
Deonte Harris (1-72-1/1) found broken coverage, got wide open, and saw a Jameis bomb on the money. Harris has been a weapon on throws for years…and he had 8 targets last week. He was trying to break out, because he’s an easy throw for Winston. This game…bomb TD to start the party – and then hurt his hamstring and missed the rest of the game after just two snaps. Harris is close to being an FF-weapon, but he always gets hurt to get derailed. He will be healthy Week 7 after the bye, so he’s a legit WR3/Flex Week 7, IF Thomas isn’t back.
-- Washington weapons thoughts…
Taylor Heinicke (20-41 for 248 yards, 0 TD/2 INT) is similar to Jameis…randomly throwing passes, sometimes they find their mark and sometimes they find the other team – he had two picks in this game, lucky it wasn’t 5+.
Terry McLaurin (4-46-0/11) is his favorite receiver, but their 55% connection rate on targets this season let’s you know how dicey each throw is. They connected on 36% of their passes here. Last week, TML had two TDs, but both were minor miracles…that’s why I’ve been pushing to trade him vs. holding. The two TDs Week 4 made everyone hold or regret a trade they did prior. This week…you wished you would have traded him ahead of this contest. He will continue to have random WR1 and WR2-3 weeks…depending upon the coverage and the miracles hitting randomly from Heinicke.
Ricky Seals-Jones (5-41-0/9) looked really solid in place of Logan Thomas. But next week RSJ might have a 2-20-0/3 line…you never know with Heinicke. RSJ is a flyer hope any week right now. Also, you do not have to hold Logan Thomas to the death if you found a better TE the last few weeks – all you Schultz and Knox people, you can move on if you need the roster spot. Thomas may not be back for a few more weeks. What’s he come back to? Randomness.
Curtis Samuel (1-8-0, 0-0-0/1) got me excited for a moment – he was in the backfield lined up a few times right away…but he got dinged up again and only played 5 snaps. But the snaps he was in were encouraging…a lot of backfield work. I’m trying to hold Samuel in deeper leagues. Normal redraft…he’s not a must hold, because who knows if he’ll ever be healthy this year. It’s been one thing after another with him in 2021.
DeAndre Carter (4-62-0/8) is the PPR winner off a Samuel injury. He takes his role essentially, and he’s a pretty talented/stable, speedy WR.
A game Washington trailed most of the time, I figured J.D. McKissic (2-0-0, 1-8-0/40 would have seen a bunch of targets. Nope. He played his normal number of snaps, but to little avail. Last week, 7 carries and 5 catches. This week 2 carries and 1 target. I assume Week 5 was a blip. It’s the FF-life you lead with the McKissic-Hines-Gio, etc., crowd. I like David Johnson more and more in that pool of RB PPR despair.
You’re getting the TDs with Antonio Gibson (20-60-2, 2-12-0/2), which is nice, but the actual yardage performance isn’t great. Less than 70 yards rushing four games in a row. Their best OL (Schreff) is out for a while…then they lost Sam Cosmi in this game. You gotta pray the TDs keep falling his way.
-- The Saints defense is pretty good, but erratic. Jameis doesn’t help them much. They’ve had a very easy schedule, so we don’t know how truly good they are…but they did crush Rodgers opening week. A week 6 bye then Geno Smith Week 7 is noice! Then the schedule turns rough Week 8 vs. TB on from there.
Snap Counts of Interest:
47 = A Gibson
34 = McKissic
05 = J Patterson
70 = McLaurin
58 = Carter
51 = Humphries
46 = Callaway
40 = Stills
25 = Ty Montgomery
08 = Hogan
02 = Deonte Harris