2022 Week 10: Buccaneers 21, Seahawks 16 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
In front of a totally-into-it German crowd, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers showed a sign of life finally and raced out to a 14-0 halftime lead and a 21-3 lead into the 4th-quarter. Then Seattle perked up and the Bucs melted down and suddenly we had a game at 21-16 Tampa with 3:56 remaining. The Bucs then rolled on with a great time-consuming drive to run out the clock and secure the international win.
Tampa Bay played this game with high energy, like they wanted it more…and they got it. Seattle was on their heels most all the game…even their late game comeback was frazzled. Tampa was the better team this day…you never know when THIS Tampa team will show up.
The Bucs are now (5-5) and back on top of the putrid NFC South. I don’t think they’re going to waltz to the division title/a coronation from here. The schedule isn’t easy, and this Tampa team isn’t very good. I could see TB beating Cleveland Week 12 (after a Week 11 bye) and then losing three straight to NO-SF-CIN, falling to (6-8) and then winning out with ARI-CAR-ATL to get to a (9-8) finish and the division title.
Seattle falls to (6-4)…they needed to get this win badly, and they blew it. Their lead in the NFC West now cut to a game with San Fran in hot pursuit/likely to win the division over Seattle. It could be two (8-5) teams squaring off Week 15 vs. SF. Seattle would likely get thumped there and then lose to KC the following week…and then everything falling apart as they host the Jets Week 17 to try and stay in the playoff chase. Seattle’s on the edge…they cannot afford any bad/surprise losses to stay in the playoff picture. Seattle should get to 9-10 wins and have a shot at the NFC West, but more likely is headed to the playoffs as a wild card…but also collapsing to an (8-9) finish and out of the playoffs is possible.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The big news from this game was the starting nod and seeming takeover of the TB backfield by rookie Rachaad White (22-105-0, 0-0-0/0).
I’m not convinced the Bucs won’t keep themselves tied to Leonard Fournette (14-57-1, 1-1-0/1) until it’s beyond obvious…that this Rachaad ‘start’ was just to motivate Fournette.
White started…then Fournette came in 2nd-series, guns-a-blazing. White worked the 3rd-series, but Fournette got in on it that series, eventually scored a TD and it looked like Tampa was happy to have Fournette back working hard again. White would go on to dominate the 2nd-half…but that only because Fournette hurt his hip.
White was still working the kick returns this game…a sign the team isn’t fully taking this seriously with White. And we know White is a pass game god…and got zero targets here. I think the plan was for White to start to fire up Fournette and then heavy Fournette with some White…because there did not seem to be a specific plan for White other than ‘get in there’. Then Fournette’s hip ruined the plan…then White dominated the Seahawks in the 2nd-half, further ruining the future 2022 hope. It’s going to be hard to go back to heavy Fournette, but incompetent Byron Leftwich, front man/empty suit head coach Todd Bowles, and drunk Uncle Bruce Arians still roaming the sidelines are just the regime to do the inexplicable.
I will remind you again -- Bruce Arians is the guy who saw David Johnson, in all his rookie/prime glory, playing like the best back in the entire NFL as a rookie…and Arians kept him on kick returns and sparse touches so that he could feature Andre Ellington and Chris Johnson. Ellington and Chris Johnson both got hurt in the same game and thus forced the Davis Johnson era to begin -- it was not the plan. DJ3K was something Arians was trying to suppress, still sullen that he did not get his desired Ameer Abdullah in the draft and had to settle for some guy named David Johnson.
So, if you think Rachaad White was so awesome Week 10 (and he was) and cannot be denied, and surely the coaching staff had to see ‘it’ -- don’t be so sure.
There’s hope for Rachaad, because he’s a terrific talent…but there’s also some reservations. What happens Week 12 will tell us a lot of what we need to know. If you see White back there to return the opening kickoff, then you have your answer.
If Fournette’s hip injury is worse than they’re saying, and he misses time -- White will be an RB1 in all formats and could save the TB season.
Former NFL GM’s comment he used to make working for the Raiders, back in the day: ‘We’re an injury away from being really good.” Acknowledging the idiocy of what players head coaches push and suppress. Tampa Bay is one injury (Fournette) away from having a real offense again.
-- The QB notes…
Tom Brady (22-27 for 258 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) looks fine, but almost every pass is still so pained/strained to complete with guys not open or routes run right into coverage. I’ve seen it over and over every week. By contrast, Aaron Rodgers looks fine, guys get open -- but he’s more letdown by his young/choppy WRs dropping passes or running the wrong route and too much run game calls. Brady has license to throw every down with no run game (until this game) but he just doesn’t have a lot of options or time…the passes he does complete are spectacular throws usually into super tight windows. It was a bit more open passing game here because the run game (White) was finally working.
Brady leads the league in pass attempts with distance, but his output has been messy…good yards, low TDs…just 6 TD passes in his last 6 games. Eight of 10 games this season with 0 or 1 TD pass in it. That’s not the Tom Brady we all know and love, but I would swear from the tape all year it is not him/his issue. He’s a (2/8) this season, shockingly.
Geno Smith (23-33 for 275 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) looks better than Brady to me in 2022…not that Brady isn’t better as a talent, he is…it’s just Geno looks better in his offense. Guys are open. Play calls are clever, especially to the TEs when they need it most times. Seattle’s WR group plays with more passion and energy and gets open more than Tampa’s does by a mile.
Geno has thrown for 17 TDs this season…5th-best in the league.
Brady has thrown for 12 TDs this season…14th(t) best in the league…tied with Justin Fields and Marcus Mariota…if you needed some more ice water thrown in your face on Brady’s 2022.
Still, our emotions, we all would probably be inclined to start Brady over Geno any week for FF, because it’s Brady…but Brady is a (2/8) while Geno is a (5/5) and the #9 QB in FF PPG (4pts pass TD). Brady is the #18 FF QB…just behind Mariota.
-- Tampa Bay WR report…
Brady seems to be leaning more on Chris Godwin (6-71-1/8) lately, and thus Godwin’s PPR numbers are rising. Brady seems to favor Mike Evans (5-54-0/6) in clutch spots, but their dynamic/connection has been fading all year. Julio Jones (3-53-1/5) is an option Brady isn’t forgetting about…Julio can be a possible flex option during BYE weeks…with WR3 upside, maybe…if this Bucs pass game ever gets better.
Godwin is a (2/6) this season, but 7 straight double-digit+ PPR scoring games in-a-row for him.
Evans is a (4/5) this season, way off his norm…(2/4) his last 6 games.
Julio is a (1/4) this season…getting the one here, barely.
-- Just an aside, it was painfully obvious that Seattle wants Kenneth Walker (10-17-0, 6-55-0/8) as the centerpiece of their offense. As Seattle was falling down in this game, falling behind, they couldn’t run the ball at all…but they kept going with it then switched over to forced pass plays to Walker. There will be no RBBC here in the future, it appears…it’s game-on with Walker.
-- A quick IDP that caught my eye here, and the past few weeks…
He’s not putting up huge numbers, yet, by Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (2 tackles, 1 sack) is really standing out/playing so well. He’s a slick edge/pass rusher, but he’s also dropping into coverage and playing the run. He’s become an all-around defender.
Two sacks in his last 3 games with 2 TFLs, 1 PD. One to keep an eye on in deeper IDP leagues.
Snap Counts of Interest:
48 = R White
22 = Fournette
05 = K Vaughn
46 = Otton
34 = Brate
47 = Metcalf
47 = Lockett
41 = Goodwin
27 = Fant
22 = Dissly
14 = Parkinson
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