2022 Week 10: Colts 25, Raiders 20 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)

2022 Week 10: Colts 25, Raiders 20 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)

 

This was either a feel-good win by the Colts…or a bane of your existence win by the Colts. It would be the ‘bane’ side if you are a part of the NFL establishment or consume too much talk radio/TV morons spouting off on things they know nothing about.

This whole week leading up and in-game was all about Jeff Saturday and the ‘travesty’ the football media/establishment thought his hiring was -- because the NFL system is no different than our government or any other big corporation…the people within the system want to protect the system to their demise, because they live/feed off the system. Outsiders are not welcome.

This coaching move was tee’d up for the media to enjoy: the establishment media got to yell about interesting stuff to stir up news/clicks…while the ex-coaches who litter the NFL coverage all week and pregame shows on the networks embarrassed themselves protecting the system by tearing down Saturday/the decision, and then the racism claims from opportunists got mixed in -- and thus the perfect debate storm for the NFL establishment media to piss down on us all week.

I was for this hire last week for the exact reason why the establishment came out and hated it, like I knew they would. NFL teams are poorly run…and the NFL system at large is poorly run…just like most major corporations (making money in spite of themselves) and our government. So, I’m not shocked at the NFL’s dumb/protective reaction to the Saturday hiring…I’m just pointing it out/highlighting it in order to continue to ween us off listening to these people (the media, ex-coaches, etc.) when they weigh in on football player or team analysis things, which they also know little about…we need to not be so swayed by their nonsense.

I could go on and on about this issue, but Pat McAfee’s take is better put than I could type…and note that the NFL is trying to find a way to stop McAfee from talking. They are currently bribing him with ESPN work, to plug him into the benefits of being ‘in their system’ -- but if he doesn’t get in line, they are going to start banning him/canceling him…I guarantee it. This McAfee take (link below) is another step in the eventual canceling of McAfee, but he’s 100% correct…and that’s why he needs to be silenced by the system.

McAfee’s take on Saturday…and the media reaction to it (language alert): https://youtu.be/g2ba--jPj4E

I’m glad Saturday won here, because the media/establishment wanted him to lose so badly…so they could continue to roast the decision. Don’t worry, they will…next loss…next ‘go for it on 4th-down’ not converted in a key spot, etc. Saturday is going to be haunted for his entire coaching career by the establishment…it’s unfair but it’s how the game is played. Saturday cannot succeed or it reveals that you don’t need a long-time, institutionalized coach that has 20+ years’ experience and it’s ‘his turn’. Would you rather Nathaniel Hackett be your head coach…or Jeff Saturday? Hackett has quite the resume…before 2022…but he’s a system guy, a legacy guy.

All that aside, the Raiders had about 500 chances to win this game and couldn’t do it. Josh McDaniels has all the resume and pedigree and experience and mentoring (wink-wink) and is a worse coach today than inexperienced Jeff Saturday.

The Colts led all 1st-half, but then the Raiders took the lead late in the 3rd-quarter and led 20-19 with 5+ minutes left in the game. The Colts embarked on a late drive to take the lead…a drive where they tried to fumble it to the Raiders, but the ball bounced back to Indy. Once the Colts took the 25-20 lead, the Raiders embarked on a drive with 5+ minutes left and got down to the red zone where Foster Moreau dropped the game winning TD pass among other gaffes and Vegas couldn’t score and the Colts took back over and took knees to secure the win.

The Colts are now (4-5-1) and right back into the playoff hunt. This game was the best they’ve looked in a long time, definitely the best they’ve looked in 2022. The coaching change was needed this past offseason. The defense was solid again, but the offense looked a thousand times better. The O-Line was its best in a year+, which helped Jonathan Taylor go off and kept Matt Ryan comfortable.

Tough schedule from here for Indy…probably a (3-4) finish from here to wind up (7-9-1) and out of the playoffs, but if they can flip a game and get to (8-8-1), then maybe a playoff shot. (9-7-1) would put them in great position but I don’t think this schedule or this team’s mild talent overall can have them go (5-2) the next 7 games.

The Raiders are better than this, but they have the opposite issue of the Colts…they have a head coach they hate, and maybe the thing they hate most is the Carr-Davante love affair that rules this team. The Raiders could be decent, but the season is lost, and the head coach is a depression over the team. Las Vegas is (2-7) and likely to finish with 4-5 wins at best.

Las Vegas should be a big, desired destination for free agents in 2023, but I imagine they’ll all steer clear of McDaniels, and he’ll just sign, overspend on more ex-Patriots. I could fix the Raiders in one move -- fire McDaniels (who shouldn’t have been hired in the first place) and elevate D-C Patrick Graham or, if I could, I’d bring in Rich Bisaccia back to run the team.

 

 

*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.

A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

   -- The QBs in this game need to be replaced going into 2023, and I think both organizations will try to replace them but replacing one of them is going to be a gigantic can of worms…but for 2022, the teams are definitely stuck with them.

Matt Ryan (221-28 for 222 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 4-38-1) played the only type of game he’s capable of now…protected behind good blocking and just chipping away short passes. If the Colts ever need Ryan to ‘win the game’ for them…they’re toast.

Ryan is due $35M next season…or $18M payoff to cut. I think Ryan will take his $18M and go home for good/retire.

Derek Carr (24-38 for 246 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) signed a terrible contract in 2022…one that would get him cut next year under normal circumstances ($35M to play, $6M payoff to just cut in 2023) but there’s a problem with this simple cut…Davante Adams won’t stand for it. The Raiders tied themselves to Carr-Adams, and now they’re stuck…especially with Adams’ upside-down contract for two more seasons. If they cut Carr, they have to also trade Adams, which given his big contract, won’t be so easy…but maybe LV can get GB to take him back. Vegas would probably like to bring Rodgers in…but I doubt Rodgers would want to play for McDaniels.

Regardless of 2023…Carr is here for 2022 to play out the string of a lost season and all he is doing is throwing to his BFF now and ignoring the other WRs…which doesn’t look like the WR group is happy about it -- but this is what LV signed up for, and it’s what they got…forced passes to Davante, that hit sometimes but miss a lot too.

 

 -- Matt Ryan back, so we have to re-re-re-re-do the WR projections going forward…

Parris Campbell (7-76-1/9) has been FF-fantastic with Matt Ryan their last three games together…8.0 rec. (10.7 targets), 67.7 yards, 1.0 TDs per game…three quality starts, WR1 activity. There’s no reason the production doesn’t stay consistent/useful…he’s the perfect easy throw for Ryan.

Michael Pittman (7-53-0/9) is the slightly better Donovan Peoples-Jones…good catch counts and decent yards and NO TDs. Pittman is a (2/7) this season…four straight non-quality starts in a row.

Ashton Dulin (0-0-0/0) started this game over Alec Pierce (0-0-0/2) but only played 20 snaps to Pierce’s 42. Neither caught a pass, but Dulin was never targeted. Pierce has died off in this passing game that cannot support beyond Parris-Pittman. Pierce will rise again, but probably more 2023.

 

 -- On the Raiders passing game side of things…it’s simple -- throw everything to Davante Adams, in-between Josh Jacobs (21-78-1, 6-28-0/8) handoffs. I get pushing your stars the ball, but there’s nothing else creative happening here…it’s Carr dropping back, staring at Adams’s side of the field most drop backs and then launching it to him. Sometimes it lands…sometimes it doesn’t.

There are receivers running open elsewhere, but Carr isn’t even looking because he’s staring at Adams. Mack Hollins (2-18-0/6) could’ve aided this cause more with Waller-Renfrow out…but rare few of the occasional, desperate throws to Hollins landed.

Foster Moreau (3-43-1/4) is in a decent spot in all this…he doesn’t go medium or deep often, so he’s a nice short checkdown toss when Carr needs it. Carr hit Moreau with the game winning TD late game, in the end zone, but Moreau dropped it and cost them the game. That’s not gonna help Carr not wanna throw everything to Adams.

 

 -- Two RB notes from this game…

1) Jonathan Taylor (22-147-1, 2-16-0/2) was back to normal…and it helped that:

(a) the O-Line looked better than it has in two seasons (thanks Jeff Saturday, you no-experience bum head coach, for fixing the O-Line in just a few days!) and…

(b) the Raiders aren’t very good at stopping the run.

A good run game schedule the rest of the season could get Taylor primed to carry FF teams down the stretch after a nightmare run of injuries and under performance with the Frank Reich regime.

 

Side note: Zamir White (2-0-0) gets 1-2-3 chances a game and has not done a thing with it. His last four games, he’s taken 5 carries for -7 yards…three of the 5 games with negative rushing results. He looks fine but he goes in and slams up the middle for nothing and then disappears.

 

 -- Just an FYI for those streaming, searching for kickers week-to-week…

Chase McLaughlin (2/3 FGs, 1/1 XP) has been pretty good this season, but note that his next five games are all in a dome, as the weather turns potentially negative for those kicking a lot in the elements. A Week 14 bye, note as well.

Since Week 5, he’s the #5 kicker in PPG in Fantasy.

 

 -- Another good showing for Gus Bradley’s Colts defense. I thought Gus would really hurt this defense and put even more negatives on Frank Reich in 2022, but the defense has been the one good thing all season. It’s not great but it’s been solid/good holding down opponents scoring…the #11 best PPG allowed defense in the NFL…but the schedule has very much been their friend, and that’s about to change.

PHI-PIT-DAL-BYE-MIN-LAC the next 6 weeks provides…what?...one confident start (v. PIT)?

 

 -- The defense in this game that has my attention is the Raiders-DST. It’s not ready right now, but they are transitioning to several young, talented defenders and that will pay off eventually, I think.

The Raiders have four top 35 IDP stash talents on our Dynasty Stash list right now…

CB Nate Hobbs is on IR, but due to return soon…already a top shutdown corner.

CB Sam Webb (8 tackles, 2 PDs), a UDFA rookie CB that I adore…he played lights out in this game, his first real feature role (97% of the snaps played). He can cover like a mother. He’s a hitter. And on Jon Taylor’s 66-yard TD run, Webb was behind the play by 5+ yards when he took after JT who was already full sprinting…and Webb caught him by the time they got to the end zone (still was a TD). The speed is real.

Watch #27 come from the outside and catch JT at the goal line from a -5 yards starting deficit: https://youtu.be/rcJXNBRqxRQ

Webb-Hobbs is going to be a STELLAR CB combo into the near future.

Divine Deablo is a top LB prospect, already killing it this year…he missed this game, which helped the Colts run all over LV.

UDFA rookie Luke Masterson (6 tackles, 1 TFL), another player who I really liked from his preseason work, started this game and was impactful.

Be wary of the Raiders-DST if they ever get all their main guys back healthy.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

67 = Mack Hollins

67 = Moreau

65 = Davante

 

63 = Pittman

52 = Parris C

42 = Pierce

20 = Dulin

 

61 = J Taylor

03 = Wilkins

01 = Z Moss

 

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2022 Week 10: Colts 25, Raiders 20 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)

Date:
November 15, 2022 7:38 PM
November 15, 2022 7:37 PM

2022 Week 10: Colts 25, Raiders 20 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)

 

This was either a feel-good win by the Colts…or a bane of your existence win by the Colts. It would be the ‘bane’ side if you are a part of the NFL establishment or consume too much talk radio/TV morons spouting off on things they know nothing about.

This whole week leading up and in-game was all about Jeff Saturday and the ‘travesty’ the football media/establishment thought his hiring was -- because the NFL system is no different than our government or any other big corporation…the people within the system want to protect the system to their demise, because they live/feed off the system. Outsiders are not welcome.

This coaching move was tee’d up for the media to enjoy: the establishment media got to yell about interesting stuff to stir up news/clicks…while the ex-coaches who litter the NFL coverage all week and pregame shows on the networks embarrassed themselves protecting the system by tearing down Saturday/the decision, and then the racism claims from opportunists got mixed in -- and thus the perfect debate storm for the NFL establishment media to piss down on us all week.

I was for this hire last week for the exact reason why the establishment came out and hated it, like I knew they would. NFL teams are poorly run…and the NFL system at large is poorly run…just like most major corporations (making money in spite of themselves) and our government. So, I’m not shocked at the NFL’s dumb/protective reaction to the Saturday hiring…I’m just pointing it out/highlighting it in order to continue to ween us off listening to these people (the media, ex-coaches, etc.) when they weigh in on football player or team analysis things, which they also know little about…we need to not be so swayed by their nonsense.

I could go on and on about this issue, but Pat McAfee’s take is better put than I could type…and note that the NFL is trying to find a way to stop McAfee from talking. They are currently bribing him with ESPN work, to plug him into the benefits of being ‘in their system’ -- but if he doesn’t get in line, they are going to start banning him/canceling him…I guarantee it. This McAfee take (link below) is another step in the eventual canceling of McAfee, but he’s 100% correct…and that’s why he needs to be silenced by the system.

McAfee’s take on Saturday…and the media reaction to it (language alert): https://youtu.be/g2ba--jPj4E

I’m glad Saturday won here, because the media/establishment wanted him to lose so badly…so they could continue to roast the decision. Don’t worry, they will…next loss…next ‘go for it on 4th-down’ not converted in a key spot, etc. Saturday is going to be haunted for his entire coaching career by the establishment…it’s unfair but it’s how the game is played. Saturday cannot succeed or it reveals that you don’t need a long-time, institutionalized coach that has 20+ years’ experience and it’s ‘his turn’. Would you rather Nathaniel Hackett be your head coach…or Jeff Saturday? Hackett has quite the resume…before 2022…but he’s a system guy, a legacy guy.

All that aside, the Raiders had about 500 chances to win this game and couldn’t do it. Josh McDaniels has all the resume and pedigree and experience and mentoring (wink-wink) and is a worse coach today than inexperienced Jeff Saturday.

The Colts led all 1st-half, but then the Raiders took the lead late in the 3rd-quarter and led 20-19 with 5+ minutes left in the game. The Colts embarked on a late drive to take the lead…a drive where they tried to fumble it to the Raiders, but the ball bounced back to Indy. Once the Colts took the 25-20 lead, the Raiders embarked on a drive with 5+ minutes left and got down to the red zone where Foster Moreau dropped the game winning TD pass among other gaffes and Vegas couldn’t score and the Colts took back over and took knees to secure the win.

The Colts are now (4-5-1) and right back into the playoff hunt. This game was the best they’ve looked in a long time, definitely the best they’ve looked in 2022. The coaching change was needed this past offseason. The defense was solid again, but the offense looked a thousand times better. The O-Line was its best in a year+, which helped Jonathan Taylor go off and kept Matt Ryan comfortable.

Tough schedule from here for Indy…probably a (3-4) finish from here to wind up (7-9-1) and out of the playoffs, but if they can flip a game and get to (8-8-1), then maybe a playoff shot. (9-7-1) would put them in great position but I don’t think this schedule or this team’s mild talent overall can have them go (5-2) the next 7 games.

The Raiders are better than this, but they have the opposite issue of the Colts…they have a head coach they hate, and maybe the thing they hate most is the Carr-Davante love affair that rules this team. The Raiders could be decent, but the season is lost, and the head coach is a depression over the team. Las Vegas is (2-7) and likely to finish with 4-5 wins at best.

Las Vegas should be a big, desired destination for free agents in 2023, but I imagine they’ll all steer clear of McDaniels, and he’ll just sign, overspend on more ex-Patriots. I could fix the Raiders in one move -- fire McDaniels (who shouldn’t have been hired in the first place) and elevate D-C Patrick Graham or, if I could, I’d bring in Rich Bisaccia back to run the team.

 

 

*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.

A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

   -- The QBs in this game need to be replaced going into 2023, and I think both organizations will try to replace them but replacing one of them is going to be a gigantic can of worms…but for 2022, the teams are definitely stuck with them.

Matt Ryan (221-28 for 222 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 4-38-1) played the only type of game he’s capable of now…protected behind good blocking and just chipping away short passes. If the Colts ever need Ryan to ‘win the game’ for them…they’re toast.

Ryan is due $35M next season…or $18M payoff to cut. I think Ryan will take his $18M and go home for good/retire.

Derek Carr (24-38 for 246 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) signed a terrible contract in 2022…one that would get him cut next year under normal circumstances ($35M to play, $6M payoff to just cut in 2023) but there’s a problem with this simple cut…Davante Adams won’t stand for it. The Raiders tied themselves to Carr-Adams, and now they’re stuck…especially with Adams’ upside-down contract for two more seasons. If they cut Carr, they have to also trade Adams, which given his big contract, won’t be so easy…but maybe LV can get GB to take him back. Vegas would probably like to bring Rodgers in…but I doubt Rodgers would want to play for McDaniels.

Regardless of 2023…Carr is here for 2022 to play out the string of a lost season and all he is doing is throwing to his BFF now and ignoring the other WRs…which doesn’t look like the WR group is happy about it -- but this is what LV signed up for, and it’s what they got…forced passes to Davante, that hit sometimes but miss a lot too.

 

 -- Matt Ryan back, so we have to re-re-re-re-do the WR projections going forward…

Parris Campbell (7-76-1/9) has been FF-fantastic with Matt Ryan their last three games together…8.0 rec. (10.7 targets), 67.7 yards, 1.0 TDs per game…three quality starts, WR1 activity. There’s no reason the production doesn’t stay consistent/useful…he’s the perfect easy throw for Ryan.

Michael Pittman (7-53-0/9) is the slightly better Donovan Peoples-Jones…good catch counts and decent yards and NO TDs. Pittman is a (2/7) this season…four straight non-quality starts in a row.

Ashton Dulin (0-0-0/0) started this game over Alec Pierce (0-0-0/2) but only played 20 snaps to Pierce’s 42. Neither caught a pass, but Dulin was never targeted. Pierce has died off in this passing game that cannot support beyond Parris-Pittman. Pierce will rise again, but probably more 2023.

 

 -- On the Raiders passing game side of things…it’s simple -- throw everything to Davante Adams, in-between Josh Jacobs (21-78-1, 6-28-0/8) handoffs. I get pushing your stars the ball, but there’s nothing else creative happening here…it’s Carr dropping back, staring at Adams’s side of the field most drop backs and then launching it to him. Sometimes it lands…sometimes it doesn’t.

There are receivers running open elsewhere, but Carr isn’t even looking because he’s staring at Adams. Mack Hollins (2-18-0/6) could’ve aided this cause more with Waller-Renfrow out…but rare few of the occasional, desperate throws to Hollins landed.

Foster Moreau (3-43-1/4) is in a decent spot in all this…he doesn’t go medium or deep often, so he’s a nice short checkdown toss when Carr needs it. Carr hit Moreau with the game winning TD late game, in the end zone, but Moreau dropped it and cost them the game. That’s not gonna help Carr not wanna throw everything to Adams.

 

 -- Two RB notes from this game…

1) Jonathan Taylor (22-147-1, 2-16-0/2) was back to normal…and it helped that:

(a) the O-Line looked better than it has in two seasons (thanks Jeff Saturday, you no-experience bum head coach, for fixing the O-Line in just a few days!) and…

(b) the Raiders aren’t very good at stopping the run.

A good run game schedule the rest of the season could get Taylor primed to carry FF teams down the stretch after a nightmare run of injuries and under performance with the Frank Reich regime.

 

Side note: Zamir White (2-0-0) gets 1-2-3 chances a game and has not done a thing with it. His last four games, he’s taken 5 carries for -7 yards…three of the 5 games with negative rushing results. He looks fine but he goes in and slams up the middle for nothing and then disappears.

 

 -- Just an FYI for those streaming, searching for kickers week-to-week…

Chase McLaughlin (2/3 FGs, 1/1 XP) has been pretty good this season, but note that his next five games are all in a dome, as the weather turns potentially negative for those kicking a lot in the elements. A Week 14 bye, note as well.

Since Week 5, he’s the #5 kicker in PPG in Fantasy.

 

 -- Another good showing for Gus Bradley’s Colts defense. I thought Gus would really hurt this defense and put even more negatives on Frank Reich in 2022, but the defense has been the one good thing all season. It’s not great but it’s been solid/good holding down opponents scoring…the #11 best PPG allowed defense in the NFL…but the schedule has very much been their friend, and that’s about to change.

PHI-PIT-DAL-BYE-MIN-LAC the next 6 weeks provides…what?...one confident start (v. PIT)?

 

 -- The defense in this game that has my attention is the Raiders-DST. It’s not ready right now, but they are transitioning to several young, talented defenders and that will pay off eventually, I think.

The Raiders have four top 35 IDP stash talents on our Dynasty Stash list right now…

CB Nate Hobbs is on IR, but due to return soon…already a top shutdown corner.

CB Sam Webb (8 tackles, 2 PDs), a UDFA rookie CB that I adore…he played lights out in this game, his first real feature role (97% of the snaps played). He can cover like a mother. He’s a hitter. And on Jon Taylor’s 66-yard TD run, Webb was behind the play by 5+ yards when he took after JT who was already full sprinting…and Webb caught him by the time they got to the end zone (still was a TD). The speed is real.

Watch #27 come from the outside and catch JT at the goal line from a -5 yards starting deficit: https://youtu.be/rcJXNBRqxRQ

Webb-Hobbs is going to be a STELLAR CB combo into the near future.

Divine Deablo is a top LB prospect, already killing it this year…he missed this game, which helped the Colts run all over LV.

UDFA rookie Luke Masterson (6 tackles, 1 TFL), another player who I really liked from his preseason work, started this game and was impactful.

Be wary of the Raiders-DST if they ever get all their main guys back healthy.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

67 = Mack Hollins

67 = Moreau

65 = Davante

 

63 = Pittman

52 = Parris C

42 = Pierce

20 = Dulin

 

61 = J Taylor

03 = Wilkins

01 = Z Moss

 

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>