2022 Week 11 Recap: Saints 27, Rams 20 (By Ross Jacobs)

2022 Week 11 Recap: Saints 27, Rams 20 (By Ross Jacobs)

 

This was a back and forth affair early on between two not good teams. The Saints finally grabbed a decent lead in the 3rd and then Stafford got hurt to effectively end the game.

There's really not much to say about these two. The Rams are awful. I think we held onto the idea that they were actually decent, ok-ish because they are the defending Super Bowl champions, but the sad fact is that they are solidly one of the worst 5 teams in the league. I have never seen such a hard crash so quickly...I mean, I knew they were mildly overrated because they scraped through to win the Super Bowl, but I never would have dreamed they would fall apart like this.

LA's offense has been a problem all year, and the defense was somewhat making up for it, they were average at least, but now even the defense is starting to show more cracks. Nobody is afraid of this group other than Aaron Donald. Double team him every play and there's not much to worry about. The schedule ahead isn't favorable either. The Rams will be underdogs in every single game except perhaps Denver, and if Stafford isn't back they'll be dogs in that one too. I'm legitimately unsure they can win another game, that's how bad this is.

The Saints climb to 4-7 but I see no real hope for this team. They caught the Rams ship sinking and put them away but it was no easy win until Stafford went down. This win will just give them false hope unfortunately. They might win another 3 games tops to get to 7-10 but that's about it. I don't foresee them making a run at the NFC South which would be their only real chance to make the playoffs. They simply don't have the offense or defense to do it.

Speaking of their defense, it's bad, very bad, and it's being hidden from the public a little because they shutout the Raiders a few weeks ago and only gave up 20 each to the Steelers and Rams...but think about that for a moment and you'll see the problem. They gave up 20 points to arguably the two worst offenses in the league...no bueno. Here's a fun fact: other than the weird shutout against Vegas, this defense hasn't held a single opponent under 20 points all year. Before these past two games against bottom feeder offenses, they had given up 27 or more points in 5 straight games (again excluding Vegas). They have given up 26 or more points in 6 of 10 games this year. Do no fear this defense because of their reputation from last year!

*RC NOTE: If the Saints could get their half-a-defense on the inactive/injury list back they might be better, but it’s gonna be too late after SF mops them up this week. 

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes:

 

 – The first series of this game the Rams rolled out Darrell Henderson to start at RB...then he magically disappeared and just now we found out he's been cut. McVay is claiming a pre-game knee tweak caused his role to be limited to just 4 snaps, but then why start him in the first place and why cut him two days later? It makes no sense, but then nothing ever does with Henderson and the Rams. They have consistently refused to use him from the moment he was drafted despite how good he's been. It's a shame really, but he'll make a nice pickup for another team and could actually eat into another RBs fantasy numbers depending on where he lands. It's something to monitor.

After Henderson left the game we got a heavy dose of Cam Akers who, I will admit, looks a little bit better than he did earlier this season. He still doesn't look good, per se, but better than he did. It's progress. With Henderson out of the picture, unless the Rams claim Melvin Gordon, I think we can pencil Akers in for roughly 15 carries per game. I don't think that's going to equate to much for fantasy because they still can't score and it's going to be worse with no Stafford, but 15 carries is not nothing. In leagues where every RB with a pulse is being rostered, Akers is as good as any.

The guy I would prefer to have though is rookie Kyren Williams but not for the reason the media loves him. Kyren is slow and unexplosive, no doubt about it. Our pre-draft scouting of him is 100% on point. But he has a couple of things going for him. 1) He played the most snaps here despite entering the game well after Akers. Why? Because he's the passing down RB and the Rams are about to be in passing downs a significant chunk of games. And 2) He actually has decent hands and is not awful in space. Trying to run up the middle he's a disaster, far too slow to make anything happen, but out in space everyone looks better because you are 1 on 1 with a defender. It's a much easier situation to play in and Kyren is capable in the way a Nyheim Hines or Theo Riddick is capable.

Now, the Rams traditionally do not throw to RBs very often since Gurley left, but with Kupp out for the year I could see them incorporating more checkdowns to Kyren whom they seem to love for whatever reason. It doesn't matter why they love him, only that they do. IF Stafford is back, I like Kyren as much as any other 3rd down back. He could get you 10 points ppr some weeks which is enough to get by. If Perkins is at QB then don't bother. Better yet, you should have already traded Kyren to some sucker a week or two again when he was a magical unknown rookie being hyped up by the media.

 

 – RC and I speculated that there would be no winner in the Rams passing game with Kupp gone and we were absolutely correct. The ball is just going to be spread around from now on, maybe a slight tick up for Tyler Higbee. It's a rare occurrence these days but when the Rams do get inside the 10 yard line, their goal line passing target is Allen Robinson. That's the one thing you can count on him to get. I have to say, Robinson looks fantastic visually. I've been saying it all year and it's true. I do not understand why they don't throw it to him more since he's roasting defenders fairly consistently, but for whatever reason Stafford just does not look at him. That's not changing with Kupp out.

 

 – In my DFS chat this week I wrote that Skowronek might be a nice one week gamble and that didn't remotely come true. He was just another part of the rotation, but he did just miss out on 50-60 yards on two catches that were just out of his reach. If he had gone 3-64 it wouldn't have looked so bad, and he might have gotten more if Stafford didn't get hurt. It was a one week, big-tournament play, nothing more. You can safely ignore him in redraft.

 

 – Tutu Atwell did get one bomb TD against old-as-sin Chris Harris but he's not a big part of the gameplan. It was a one play shot, albeit something that the team will likely try to do from time to time. Nothing you can count on though.

 

 – Stafford is back in concussion protocol so I imagine he's out for at least a week, maybe 2. In his place it will either be Bryce Perkins or John Wolford at QB, possibly a mix. Last time Wolford got the start and Perkins mixed in some option runs. If Wolford starts, the 49ers defense might set records. If Perkins starts...maybe there's some hope with him running the ball? He's a less polished version of Baltimore's Tyler Huntley. With running QBs you just never know, they can pull some surprises out of nowhere, but I would like it much more against anybody other than SF. You just don't want to mess with the league's best defense. This offense has been dreadful all year, why would anyone get excited for it against a top tier defense with a backup QB in?

 

 – Well just as we check out on Taysom Hill, the coaching staff randomly decides to start using him again...I have no idea anymore, nothing these coaches do makes sense. Ignore your 2nd best player for weeks and weeks and then randomly use him against the worst team you've played...ok! Don't ask me if he's worth using going forward. I have no idea. I guess he's back on the menu but he's not going to be decent for fantasy unless he gets a TD and good luck trying to predict that. If you're super TE desperate I guess go ahead but there are better options in my opinion...

Including his teammate Juwan Johnson who is FINALLY HAPPENING! It only took the Saints half a season to see what RC has been proclaiming for months. Johnson has 5 TDs in his last 5 games which means now that I've pointed it out he won't have another one until week 17...It's not great usage really, he's getting 4-6 targets per game on average and turning it into 40 yards with a shot at a TD, but it's working is what's important and there's clearly a growing rapport with Andy Dalton. Johnson is a mismatch nightmare for linebackers and he's finally starting to get a few more looks in those situations. Ride this trend while it lasts is all I can say.

 

 – Kamara has had a rough three game stretch and it's not likely to get better anytime soon with the Bucs and 49ers on deck. His carries and targets are all down right now, only 50-60% of what he was getting 3 weeks ago. The only thing I can assume is because the offensive line is in shambles, but you'd think they would still try to get him his short passes...that's NFL coaches for you. The only thing you can do is keep putting him out there and hope for a turn.

David Johnson isn't part of the offense FYI. He does look quite spry for being 30 years old. They really should just make him a WR. He's as good as ever catching the ball.

 

 – Chris Olave keeps impressing me every week. He's really very good. His long TD here was nothing special though, he just flat outran Ramsey (who is awful in coverage these days). If Olave ever gets an elite QB he will put up some real numbers.

 

 

IDP Notes:

 

 – I have another hot alert IDP linebacker this week. Kaden Elliss has been elevated to full-time starter since Pete Werner got hurt and he's responding with some fantastic play and fantasy numbers. 7 tackles last week and 11 here, 3.5 sacks his last 3 games...with the run heavy 49ers up next. They are lining him up in some creative ways and getting him matched up inside against slow guards on passing downs. He's a sneaky pickup if you need a linebacker.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

59 = Higbee

 

54 = Skowronek

53 = Robinson

47 = Jefferson

20 = Powell

7 = Atwell

 

35 = Kyren

25 = Akers

 

40 = Kamara

10 = DJ3K

 

40 = Trautman

36 = Juwan

24 = Taysom

 

32 = Landry

28 = Olave

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2022 Week 11 Recap: Saints 27, Rams 20 (By Ross Jacobs)

Date:
November 23, 2022 8:20 AM
November 23, 2022 12:35 PM

2022 Week 11 Recap: Saints 27, Rams 20 (By Ross Jacobs)

 

This was a back and forth affair early on between two not good teams. The Saints finally grabbed a decent lead in the 3rd and then Stafford got hurt to effectively end the game.

There's really not much to say about these two. The Rams are awful. I think we held onto the idea that they were actually decent, ok-ish because they are the defending Super Bowl champions, but the sad fact is that they are solidly one of the worst 5 teams in the league. I have never seen such a hard crash so quickly...I mean, I knew they were mildly overrated because they scraped through to win the Super Bowl, but I never would have dreamed they would fall apart like this.

LA's offense has been a problem all year, and the defense was somewhat making up for it, they were average at least, but now even the defense is starting to show more cracks. Nobody is afraid of this group other than Aaron Donald. Double team him every play and there's not much to worry about. The schedule ahead isn't favorable either. The Rams will be underdogs in every single game except perhaps Denver, and if Stafford isn't back they'll be dogs in that one too. I'm legitimately unsure they can win another game, that's how bad this is.

The Saints climb to 4-7 but I see no real hope for this team. They caught the Rams ship sinking and put them away but it was no easy win until Stafford went down. This win will just give them false hope unfortunately. They might win another 3 games tops to get to 7-10 but that's about it. I don't foresee them making a run at the NFC South which would be their only real chance to make the playoffs. They simply don't have the offense or defense to do it.

Speaking of their defense, it's bad, very bad, and it's being hidden from the public a little because they shutout the Raiders a few weeks ago and only gave up 20 each to the Steelers and Rams...but think about that for a moment and you'll see the problem. They gave up 20 points to arguably the two worst offenses in the league...no bueno. Here's a fun fact: other than the weird shutout against Vegas, this defense hasn't held a single opponent under 20 points all year. Before these past two games against bottom feeder offenses, they had given up 27 or more points in 5 straight games (again excluding Vegas). They have given up 26 or more points in 6 of 10 games this year. Do no fear this defense because of their reputation from last year!

*RC NOTE: If the Saints could get their half-a-defense on the inactive/injury list back they might be better, but it’s gonna be too late after SF mops them up this week. 

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes:

 

 – The first series of this game the Rams rolled out Darrell Henderson to start at RB...then he magically disappeared and just now we found out he's been cut. McVay is claiming a pre-game knee tweak caused his role to be limited to just 4 snaps, but then why start him in the first place and why cut him two days later? It makes no sense, but then nothing ever does with Henderson and the Rams. They have consistently refused to use him from the moment he was drafted despite how good he's been. It's a shame really, but he'll make a nice pickup for another team and could actually eat into another RBs fantasy numbers depending on where he lands. It's something to monitor.

After Henderson left the game we got a heavy dose of Cam Akers who, I will admit, looks a little bit better than he did earlier this season. He still doesn't look good, per se, but better than he did. It's progress. With Henderson out of the picture, unless the Rams claim Melvin Gordon, I think we can pencil Akers in for roughly 15 carries per game. I don't think that's going to equate to much for fantasy because they still can't score and it's going to be worse with no Stafford, but 15 carries is not nothing. In leagues where every RB with a pulse is being rostered, Akers is as good as any.

The guy I would prefer to have though is rookie Kyren Williams but not for the reason the media loves him. Kyren is slow and unexplosive, no doubt about it. Our pre-draft scouting of him is 100% on point. But he has a couple of things going for him. 1) He played the most snaps here despite entering the game well after Akers. Why? Because he's the passing down RB and the Rams are about to be in passing downs a significant chunk of games. And 2) He actually has decent hands and is not awful in space. Trying to run up the middle he's a disaster, far too slow to make anything happen, but out in space everyone looks better because you are 1 on 1 with a defender. It's a much easier situation to play in and Kyren is capable in the way a Nyheim Hines or Theo Riddick is capable.

Now, the Rams traditionally do not throw to RBs very often since Gurley left, but with Kupp out for the year I could see them incorporating more checkdowns to Kyren whom they seem to love for whatever reason. It doesn't matter why they love him, only that they do. IF Stafford is back, I like Kyren as much as any other 3rd down back. He could get you 10 points ppr some weeks which is enough to get by. If Perkins is at QB then don't bother. Better yet, you should have already traded Kyren to some sucker a week or two again when he was a magical unknown rookie being hyped up by the media.

 

 – RC and I speculated that there would be no winner in the Rams passing game with Kupp gone and we were absolutely correct. The ball is just going to be spread around from now on, maybe a slight tick up for Tyler Higbee. It's a rare occurrence these days but when the Rams do get inside the 10 yard line, their goal line passing target is Allen Robinson. That's the one thing you can count on him to get. I have to say, Robinson looks fantastic visually. I've been saying it all year and it's true. I do not understand why they don't throw it to him more since he's roasting defenders fairly consistently, but for whatever reason Stafford just does not look at him. That's not changing with Kupp out.

 

 – In my DFS chat this week I wrote that Skowronek might be a nice one week gamble and that didn't remotely come true. He was just another part of the rotation, but he did just miss out on 50-60 yards on two catches that were just out of his reach. If he had gone 3-64 it wouldn't have looked so bad, and he might have gotten more if Stafford didn't get hurt. It was a one week, big-tournament play, nothing more. You can safely ignore him in redraft.

 

 – Tutu Atwell did get one bomb TD against old-as-sin Chris Harris but he's not a big part of the gameplan. It was a one play shot, albeit something that the team will likely try to do from time to time. Nothing you can count on though.

 

 – Stafford is back in concussion protocol so I imagine he's out for at least a week, maybe 2. In his place it will either be Bryce Perkins or John Wolford at QB, possibly a mix. Last time Wolford got the start and Perkins mixed in some option runs. If Wolford starts, the 49ers defense might set records. If Perkins starts...maybe there's some hope with him running the ball? He's a less polished version of Baltimore's Tyler Huntley. With running QBs you just never know, they can pull some surprises out of nowhere, but I would like it much more against anybody other than SF. You just don't want to mess with the league's best defense. This offense has been dreadful all year, why would anyone get excited for it against a top tier defense with a backup QB in?

 

 – Well just as we check out on Taysom Hill, the coaching staff randomly decides to start using him again...I have no idea anymore, nothing these coaches do makes sense. Ignore your 2nd best player for weeks and weeks and then randomly use him against the worst team you've played...ok! Don't ask me if he's worth using going forward. I have no idea. I guess he's back on the menu but he's not going to be decent for fantasy unless he gets a TD and good luck trying to predict that. If you're super TE desperate I guess go ahead but there are better options in my opinion...

Including his teammate Juwan Johnson who is FINALLY HAPPENING! It only took the Saints half a season to see what RC has been proclaiming for months. Johnson has 5 TDs in his last 5 games which means now that I've pointed it out he won't have another one until week 17...It's not great usage really, he's getting 4-6 targets per game on average and turning it into 40 yards with a shot at a TD, but it's working is what's important and there's clearly a growing rapport with Andy Dalton. Johnson is a mismatch nightmare for linebackers and he's finally starting to get a few more looks in those situations. Ride this trend while it lasts is all I can say.

 

 – Kamara has had a rough three game stretch and it's not likely to get better anytime soon with the Bucs and 49ers on deck. His carries and targets are all down right now, only 50-60% of what he was getting 3 weeks ago. The only thing I can assume is because the offensive line is in shambles, but you'd think they would still try to get him his short passes...that's NFL coaches for you. The only thing you can do is keep putting him out there and hope for a turn.

David Johnson isn't part of the offense FYI. He does look quite spry for being 30 years old. They really should just make him a WR. He's as good as ever catching the ball.

 

 – Chris Olave keeps impressing me every week. He's really very good. His long TD here was nothing special though, he just flat outran Ramsey (who is awful in coverage these days). If Olave ever gets an elite QB he will put up some real numbers.

 

 

IDP Notes:

 

 – I have another hot alert IDP linebacker this week. Kaden Elliss has been elevated to full-time starter since Pete Werner got hurt and he's responding with some fantastic play and fantasy numbers. 7 tackles last week and 11 here, 3.5 sacks his last 3 games...with the run heavy 49ers up next. They are lining him up in some creative ways and getting him matched up inside against slow guards on passing downs. He's a sneaky pickup if you need a linebacker.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

59 = Higbee

 

54 = Skowronek

53 = Robinson

47 = Jefferson

20 = Powell

7 = Atwell

 

35 = Kyren

25 = Akers

 

40 = Kamara

10 = DJ3K

 

40 = Trautman

36 = Juwan

24 = Taysom

 

32 = Landry

28 = Olave

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>